تحليلات المنتج الاختيارية
بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Upside persists if FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS approach $74.99 billion and $17.59, then keep compounding without meaningful dilution.
FY2027 revenue falls below $70.91 billion within 16 months.
Sell. At the $256.46 report-date price, AbbVie trades above the $180.11 Fair value and $250.84 Potential value.3
The report-date price was observed on 2026-09-04 and available on 2026-09-07. It implies downside to Fair value even before a major operating disappointment.3
The main risk is FY2027 revenue falling below $70.91 billion. That would break the recovery anchor and reduce earnings and cash expectations.
The clearest upside is a move toward the upper FY2027 revenue and adjusted-EPS estimates, followed by sustained cash generation and controlled share count.13
The constructive cycle is demand-led. FY2027 revenue and adjusted-EPS estimates support recovery if sales growth converts into profit without materially higher reinvestment.1
Sell because valuation exceeds the supported recovery value and leaves little room for a faster growth fade.
The constructive cycle is demand-led. FY2027 revenue and adjusted-EPS estimates support recovery if sales growth converts into profit without materially higher reinvestment.1
Sell because valuation exceeds the supported recovery value and leaves little room for a faster growth fade.
AbbVie operates in a global environment and relies on complex international supply chains for the development, manufacture, and distribution of its products, including the sourcing of active pharmaceutical ingredients and key materials.
A weaker recovery, lower margins, and a higher required return could reinforce one another, reducing sales scale, distributable cash, and value per share.
This path would be confirmed by revenue or adjusted earnings falling outside their estimate ranges, followed by weaker margins or cash generation.
If FY2027 revenue falls below $70.91 billion within 16 months, the scale anchor breaks and lowers earnings and cash expectations.1
If the moderate cost of equity exceeds 9.6222% within 24 months, future cash and dividends become less valuable while refinancing pressure rises.
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
The available evidence does not establish product-level switching costs, scale, distribution power, or durable intellectual-property protection. Strong cash generation is a business outcome, not proof that those advantages are present or absent.
Cash generation, margins, and returns are business outcomes rather than moat sources. They should support valuation only while revenue, profitability, and reinvestment remain sustainable.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($180.11). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $17.6B after modeled capex of $1.2B, with terminal value at 78.8% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base case remains modal because annual estimates support recovery. It would weaken if growth faded faster after FY2027 or if less revenue became adjusted earnings.1
A beat supports recovery, but the view changes only if higher revenue produces more adjusted earnings and cash, with growth continuing after FY2027.
Meeting expectations would preserve the recovery thesis but would not close the valuation gap.
A miss would weaken the estimate-backed earnings base and bring mature growth forward.
Operating cash has exceeded reported profit, but leverage and variable reported margins remain important cautions.3
Strong FY2025 cash generation supports resilience, but weakening conversion would leave less cash for investment, dividends, and debt service.
FY2025 capital spending was $1.21 billion, and debt was $70.89 billion on 2026-09-07. These claims on cash limit flexibility for shareholder distributions.
The dated evidence does not establish a period-to-period return-on-invested-capital path. Cash generation is favorable, but it cannot substitute for a matched return series.
A direct comparison is not established. The enterprise discount rate was 7.1606% as of and retrieved 2026-09-08.
Operating cash was 4.5031 times reported profit using the FY2025 statement data.
This supports distributions and maintenance spending, but it does not prove that the conversion rate will persist.
Debt was $70.89 billion on 2026-09-07, while FY2025 cash was $5.23 billion.
Refinancing costs can reduce distribution flexibility and increase the return investors demand.
FY2025 operating income was $15.08 billion, while FY2025 net income was $4.23 billion.
Adjusted EPS should not be treated as proof of equivalent reported margin.
| الإيرادات | 56,334,000,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| تكلفة الإيرادات | 45,628,000,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الربح | 10,706,000,000 US$ |
| المصروفات التشغيلية | 1,569,000,000 US$ |
| الدخل التشغيلي | 9,137,000,000 US$ |
| البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب | -4,859,000,000 US$ |
| صافي الدخل | 4,278,000,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الأصول | 133,960,000,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| النقد | 5,229,000,000 US$ |
| الأصول المتداولة | 29,062,000,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الالتزامات | 137,188,000,000 US$ |
| الالتزامات المتداولة | 43,289,000,000 US$ |
| عجز حقوق المساهمين | 3,228,000,000 US$ |
| صافي الدخل | 4,226,000,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل | 19,030,000,000 US$ |
| الإهلاك والإطفاء | 8,139,000,000 US$ |
| التعويض القائم على الأسهم | 955,000,000 US$ |
| تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى | 5,710,000,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي | 19,030,000,000 US$ |
| النقد المتاح | 24,596,000,000 US$ |
| النقد في بداية الفترة | 5,524,000,000 US$ |
| تأثير سعر الصرف | 42,000,000 US$ |
| التدفق الاستثماري الخارج | 6,643,000,000 US$ |
| النفقات الرأسمالية | 1,214,000,000 US$ |
| أنشطة استثمارية أخرى | 5,429,000,000 US$ |
| التدفق التمويلي الخارج | 12,724,000,000 US$ |
| النقد في نهاية الفترة | 5,229,000,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي الاستثماري | -6,643,000,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التمويلي | -12,724,000,000 US$ |
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-20 · SEC EDGAR
| الإيرادات حسب المنطقة | الإيرادات | الحصة | على أساس سنوي |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 46.6 مليار US$ | 76.2% | 8.3% |
| Other | 5.8 مليار US$ | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Germany | 1.7 مليار US$ | 2.8% | 18.6% |
| Japan | 1.3 مليار US$ | 2.1% | 13.5% |
| Canada | 1.2 مليار US$ | 2% | 12.3% |
| China | 1 مليار US$ | 1.6% | 9.7% |
| France | 806 مليون US$ | 1.3% | 3.9% |
| United Kingdom | 626 مليون US$ | 1% | 19.9% |
| Spain | 609 مليون US$ | 1% | 15.3% |
| Italy | 580 مليون US$ | 0.9% | 13.5% |
| Brazil | 478 مليون US$ | 0.8% | 3% |
| Australia | 459 مليون US$ | 0.8% | -0.9% |
البيانات المالية في نقطة زمنية المستخدمة في تحليل 2026-09-08.
| الفترة | الإيرادات | EBITDA | صافي الدخل | التدفق النقدي التشغيلي | التدفق النقدي الحر | النفقات الرأسمالية | الإهلاك والإطفاء | التعويض القائم على الأسهم | إعادة شراء الأسهم | أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة | صافي إصدار الدين | التدفق النقدي الاستثماري | التدفق النقدي التمويلي | النقد في بداية الفترة | النقد في نهاية الفترة | النقد والاستثمارات | إجمالي الديون | الهامش التشغيلي | ROIC | WACC | فارق ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 25.6 مليار US$ | 10.1 مليار US$ | 6 مليار US$ | 7 مليار US$ | 6.6 مليار US$ | 479 مليون US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 353 مليون US$ | 6 مليار US$ | 3.7 مليار US$ | — | -6.1 مليار US$ | -3.9 مليار US$ | — | 5.1 مليار US$ | 6.4 مليار US$ | 36.8 مليار US$ | 36.4% | — | 5.7% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 28.2 مليار US$ | 10.4 مليار US$ | 5.3 مليار US$ | 10 مليار US$ | 9.4 مليار US$ | 529 مليون US$ | 1.5 مليار US$ | 365 مليون US$ | 1.4 مليار US$ | 4.1 مليار US$ | — | -274 مليون US$ | -5.5 مليار US$ | 5.1 مليار US$ | 9.3 مليار US$ | 9.8 مليار US$ | 37.4 مليار US$ | 33.8% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 32.8 مليار US$ | 8.3 مليار US$ | 5.7 مليار US$ | 13.4 مليار US$ | 12.8 مليار US$ | 638 مليون US$ | 1.8 مليار US$ | 421 مليون US$ | 12 مليار US$ | 5.6 مليار US$ | — | -1 مليار US$ | -14.4 مليار US$ | 9.3 مليار US$ | 7.3 مليار US$ | 8.1 مليار US$ | 40.3 مليار US$ | 19.5% | — | 6.5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 33.3 مليار US$ | 12.2 مليار US$ | 7.9 مليار US$ | 13.3 مليار US$ | 12.8 مليار US$ | 552 مليون US$ | 2 مليار US$ | 430 مليون US$ | 629 مليون US$ | 6.4 مليار US$ | — | 596 مليون US$ | 18.7 مليار US$ | 7.3 مليار US$ | 39.9 مليار US$ | 39.9 مليار US$ | 67.2 مليار US$ | 39.0% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 45.8 مليار US$ | 12.3 مليار US$ | 4.6 مليار US$ | 17.6 مليار US$ | 16.8 مليار US$ | 798 مليون US$ | 6.5 مليار US$ | 753 مليون US$ | 978 مليون US$ | 7.7 مليار US$ | — | -37.6 مليار US$ | -11.5 مليار US$ | 39.9 مليار US$ | 8.4 مليار US$ | 8.5 مليار US$ | 84.9 مليار US$ | 24.8% | — | 3.5% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 56.2 مليار US$ | 23.9 مليار US$ | 11.5 مليار US$ | 22.8 مليار US$ | 22 مليار US$ | 787 مليون US$ | 8.5 مليار US$ | 692 مليون US$ | 934 مليون US$ | 9.3 مليار US$ | — | -2.3 مليار US$ | -19 مليار US$ | 8.4 مليار US$ | 9.7 مليار US$ | 9.8 مليار US$ | 76 مليار US$ | 31.9% | — | 4.1% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 58.1 مليار US$ | 24.2 مليار US$ | 11.8 مليار US$ | 24.9 مليار US$ | 24.2 مليار US$ | 695 مليون US$ | 8.5 مليار US$ | 671 مليون US$ | 1.5 مليار US$ | 10 مليار US$ | -12.4 مليار US$ | -623 مليون US$ | -24.8 مليار US$ | 9.7 مليار US$ | 9.2 مليار US$ | 9.2 مليار US$ | 63.1 مليار US$ | 31.2% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 54.3 مليار US$ | 17.2 مليار US$ | 4.9 مليار US$ | 22.8 مليار US$ | 22.1 مليار US$ | 777 مليون US$ | 8.7 مليار US$ | 747 مليون US$ | 2 مليار US$ | 10.5 مليار US$ | -4.1 مليار US$ | -2 مليار US$ | -17.2 مليار US$ | 9.2 مليار US$ | 12.8 مليار US$ | 12.8 مليار US$ | 59.2 مليار US$ | 23.5% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 56.3 مليار US$ | 14.9 مليار US$ | 4.3 مليار US$ | 18.8 مليار US$ | 17.8 مليار US$ | 974 مليون US$ | 8.4 مليار US$ | 911 مليون US$ | 1.7 مليار US$ | 11 مليار US$ | 7.4 مليار US$ | -20.8 مليار US$ | -5.2 مليار US$ | 12.8 مليار US$ | 5.5 مليار US$ | 5.6 مليار US$ | 66.8 مليار US$ | 16.2% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 61.2 مليار US$ | 17.6 مليار US$ | 4.2 مليار US$ | 19 مليار US$ | 17.8 مليار US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 8.1 مليار US$ | 955 مليون US$ | 980 مليون US$ | 11.7 مليار US$ | -304 مليون US$ | -6.6 مليار US$ | -12.7 مليار US$ | 5.5 مليار US$ | 5.2 مليار US$ | 5.3 مليار US$ | 64.5 مليار US$ | 24.6% | — | 6.1% | — |
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) trades at 16.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.8x compares with a peer median of 14.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Merck & Co. Inc., Gilead Sciences Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Abbott Laboratories, as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending was 1.1% of revenue and 0.8 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01, retrieved the same date.
The constructive cycle is demand-led. FY2027 revenue and adjusted-EPS estimates support recovery if sales growth converts into profit without materially higher reinvestment.
The adverse cycle begins if the recovery fades after FY2027 or payer and competitive pressure weakens growth and margins. Product-level competitive evidence remains limited.
AbbVie is positioned for an estimate-backed recovery through FY2027, with cash generation providing resilience but limited evidence for durable growth beyond that period.
No new allocation. The report-date price exceeds Potential value, while the recovery thesis does not establish durable growth after FY2027.3
Do not increase exposure just because the two-year recovery holds. Valuation must improve through a lower share price, a higher supported value, or both, alongside less debt pressure and longer-lasting growth or cash after FY2027.
The $256.46 report-date price exceeds the $180.11 Fair value and $250.84 Potential value.3
Cash generation supports distributions, but $70.89 billion of debt leaves financing and dividend flexibility exposed to higher required returns.3
Reduce or exit rather than rely on the FY2027 recovery, because the evidence does not establish lasting growth afterward.
Sell because the report-date price stands above both Fair value and Potential value.3
The FY2027 recovery is credible, but valuation already reflects more durable earnings than the supported thesis establishes.
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
If the terminal P/E falls below 12.4x within 36 months, the post-recovery earnings stream receives a materially lower valuation.
تنبيه إذاBelow $15.13 for FY2027.
Persistent weakness would mean less operating profit from each sales dollar, undermining the normalized margin assumption used in the cash-flow valuation.
الحالي:$15.08 billion for FY2025, filed 2026-02-20 and retrieved 2026-09-08.
تنبيه إذاBasis-matched normalized operating margin below 20% for two consecutive fiscal years.
A higher required return would make future dividends and cash flows less valuable, while the debt balance increases exposure to refinancing pressure.
الحالي:7.6222% as of and retrieved 2026-09-08.
تنبيه إذاAbove 9.6222% within 24 months.
If comparable valuation boundaries fall, investors would pay less for each dollar of future earnings, directly reducing the value assigned to the post-recovery stream.
الحالي:15.5x selected terminal P/E.
تنبيه إذاBelow 12.4x within 36 months.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 61.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 77.3% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This path needs sustained earnings growth after the explicit estimate period. A rapid mature-growth fade would disconfirm it.
Weak conversion would reduce value per share even if sales hold.1
Lower margin leaves less operating profit from each sales dollar.4
Weaker conversion would reduce funding for investment, distributions, and debt.
Higher financing pressure lowers the value of future cash.3
| $76.09B |
| $77.99B |
| $79.55B |
| Operating income | $15.54B | $16.91B | $17.50B | $17.94B | $18.30B |
| NOPAT | $11.01B | $11.98B | $12.40B | $12.71B | $12.96B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $11.01B | $11.98B | $12.40B | $12.71B | $12.96B |
| Revenue growth | 10.5% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Operating margin | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Tax rate | 29.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| الهامش |
|---|
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | $453.2B | 16.1x | 7.0x | 16.8x | 62.2% | — |
| MRK | Merck & Co. Inc. | 15.7x | 5.6x | 14.5x | 7.0% | -0.2% | |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences Inc. | 15.3x | 6.1x | 14.3x | -20.7% | 33.7% | |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 9.8x | 2.5x | 8.4x | 5.0% | 27.9% | |
| ABT | Abbott Laboratories | 17.9x | 4.0x | 18.4x | 10.6% | 14.7% |
| Reduce exposure because weaker conversion lowers per-share earnings value.1 |
| Moderate cost of equity | Above 9.6222% | Exit remaining exposure because future cash and distributions would be discounted more heavily. |
