AMGN trades against a final fair-value range of $366.98-$644.16, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $367, high $644, with mid-point at $505.
Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$505
Margin of safety
+34.9%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$329.09Price
FV $505.34
High $644.16
AMGN trades against a final fair-value range of $366.98-$644.16, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Extensive patent portfolio and regulatory
Extensive patent portfolio and regulatory exclusivity
Manufacturing scale and complexity in
Manufacturing scale and complexity in biologics
Bull thesis
Contrarian: The market's -0.48% growth assumption is overly pessimistic and ignores structural cash power.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطي
A bear case scenario assumes a 20% margin compression and 5% annual revenue decline. This resets the fair value to the $366 level, providing a margin of safety near current market prices.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
MariTide Clinical Failure
25%· Medium
Obesity pipeline asset MariTide fails to meet efficacy or safety endpoints in Phase 2/3, removing the primary growth re-acceleration catalyst.
FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months
Aggressive IRA Pricing
30%· Medium
CMS negotiations result in net price reductions exceeding 40% for top assets Enbrel and Prolia, significantly faster than model decay assumptions.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-48 months
M&A Deleveraging Trap
15%· Low
Synergies from the Horizon acquisition fail to materialize while high interest rates increase the burden of the $54.6B debt load, strangling FCF.
FV impact
-20%
Trigger
Current-36 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياس
الحالي
حد التشغيل
Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio falling below 1.0x
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Consolidated Gross Margins sustained below 65%
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
MariTide Phase 2 data missing primary weight-loss benchmarks
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Net Debt to EBITDA ratio expanding above 4.5x
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Negative revenue growth in the 'Growth' product segment
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 التاريخ المالي
بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البند
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة
2022-12-31
2023-12-31
2024-12-31
2025-12-31
Trend
الإيرادات
$26.32B
$28.19B
$33.42B
$36.75B
+11.8%
إجمالي الربح
$19.92B
$19.74B
$20.57B
$24.71B
+7.5%
الدخل التشغيلي
$9.57B
$7.90B
$7.26B
$9.08B
-1.7%
صافي الدخل
$6.55B
$6.72B
$4.09B
$7.71B
+5.6%
EPS (مخفف)
$12.11
$12.49
$7.56
$14.23
+5.5%
EBITDA
$12.17B
$14.80B
$13.36B
$16.90B
+11.6%
البحث والتطوير
$4.43B
$4.78B
$5.96B
$7.27B
+17.9%
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية
$5.41B
$6.18B
$7.10B
$7.05B
+9.2%
درجات الجودة
درجة Piotroski F
7 / 9
مركب جودة 0–9
درجة Altman Z
1.79
مخاطر الإفلاس (>3 آمن)
درجة Beneish M
-2.26
مخاطر التلاعب بالأرباح
OCF / صافي الدخل
1.29×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Pass
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
14.6%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3
Numbers analysis
التدفق النقدي
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
تخصيص رأس المال
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً
اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, AMGN looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $329 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $505 (range $367–$644), which implies roughly 53.6% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for AMGN is $367–$644, with a midpoint of $505. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Amgen Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for AMGN is Strong Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. AMGN is rated Strong Buy at $329.09 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $505.34, implying +53.56% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Amgen Inc. are: MariTide Clinical Failure; Aggressive IRA Pricing; M&A Deleveraging Trap. The single biggest risk is Growth: High-optionality pipeline in obesity offers massive upside not currently priced in.
Our current rating for AMGN is Strong Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($367–$644) versus the current price of $329.
Amgen Inc. is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for AMGN.
