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BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $69.6, high $123, with mid-point at $98.4.
Stock analysis

BK BK fair value $70–$123

BK
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-08التحديث التالي: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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السعر
$130.85
▼ -32.46 (-24.81%)
القيمة العادلة
$98
$70–$123
التصنيف
تخفيض
confidence 88/100
إمكانية الصعود
-24.8%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$83.63
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$89.8B
P/E fwd 13.6
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $98 with high case $123.
  • Implied downside of 24.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$98
Margin of safety
-33.0%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$130.85Price
Low $69.61
Mid $98.39
High $123.17

BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for institutional
    High switching costs for institutional clients
  • Massive scale in custody and
    Massive scale in custody and administration
  • Bull thesis
    Internal valuation cross-checks relies on inappropriate industrial-style DCF models.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

A stress environment combining a 20% equity market drawdown and 200 bps of rate cuts would simultaneously hit fee revenues and net interest incomeNet Interest IncomeNet Interest Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., severely testing fixed-cost leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA..

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Severe Market Correction

· Medium

A prolonged global market downturn drastically reduces Assets Under Custody/Administration (AUC/A), directly compressing fee-based revenue streams below fixed operating costs.

FV impact
-15% to -20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Accelerated Rate Cuts

· High

Central banks aggressively cut interest rates faster than expected, severely compressing net interest margins on uninvested cash balances.

FV impact
-10% to -15%
Trigger
6-12 months

Regulatory Capital Hike

· Medium

G-SIB regulatory framework adjustments force significant increases in required equity capital, depressing ROE and residual income valuations.

FV impact
-20% to -25%
Trigger
18-36 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Consecutive quarters of declining AUC/A balancesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Compression of net interest margin below historical averagesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Elevated technology and compliance spend exceeding revenue growthMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major institutional custody mandates to competitorsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions indicating impending capital surcharge increasesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
الإيرادات$15.63B$16.19B$17.34B$18.26B$19.76B+6.0%
إجمالي الربح——————
الدخل التشغيلي——————
صافي الدخل$3.76B$2.56B$3.30B$4.53B$5.55B+10.2%
EPS (مخفف)—$2.90$4.00$5.80$7.40+26.4%
EBITDA——————
البحث والتطوير——————
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$6.34B$6.80B$7.10B$6.89B$6.95B+2.3%

درجات الجودة

OCF / صافي الدخل
1.21×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Pass
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
—
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

التدفق النقدي

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

BK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $131 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $98.4 (range $69.6–$123), which implies roughly 24.8% downside to the midpoint.

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