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COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $342, high $515, with mid-point at $428.
Stock analysis

COR COR fair value $342–$515

COR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-13التحديث التالي: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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السعر
$260.93
▲ +166.64 (+63.86%)
القيمة العادلة
$428
$342–$515
التصنيف
شراء قوي
confidence 78/100
إمكانية الصعود
+63.9%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$363.43
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$50.8B
P/E fwd 13.2
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $428 with high case $515.
  • Implied upside of 63.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$428
Margin of safety
+39.0%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$260.93Price
Low $342.15
Mid $427.57
High $514.68

COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cost Advantage
    Massive scale as a dominant triopoly member ensures procurement efficiency and low per-unit costs.
  • Network Effect
    Irreplaceable intermediary connecting highly fragmented retail pharmacies with global biopharma manufacturers.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is incorrectly penalizing Cencora for short-term working capital anomalies, masking the highly durable 23% ROIC.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

A negative working capitalWorking capitalCurrent assets minus current liabilities. The capital tied up in the operating cycle (receivables and inventory) net of trade financing (payables). spiral combined with sustained operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. compression below 1.1% would break the capital return algorithm, rendering share repurchases dilutive.

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Severe Drug Pricing Intervention

15%· Low

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces US branded and generic drug pricing, crushing distribution fee economics and compressing margins below 1%.

FV impact
Severe (FV ~342)

Direct-to-Consumer Biopharma Pivot

10%· Low

Manufacturers systematically bypass wholesale networks for specialty and blockbuster treatments, structurally degrading top-line growth and ROIC.

FV impact
Severe (FV < 300)

Generic Deflation Acceleration

20%· Medium

Intense generic price deflation outpaces unit volume growth, eroding gross profit dollars and causing operating leverage to inflect negatively.

FV impact
Moderate
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Operating margins persistently dropping below the 1.1% historical floor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative free cash flow persists beyond short-term working capital anomalies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major contract losses with top-tier pharmacy chains or health systems.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant manufacturer shifts to direct distribution models for high-margin specialty drugs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Legislative shifts implementing structural caps on wholesale distribution margins.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
الإيرادات$238.59B$262.17B$293.96B$321.33B+10.4%
إجمالي الربح$8.30B$8.96B$9.91B$11.48B+11.4%
الدخل التشغيلي$2.75B$2.69B$3.16B$3.93B+12.6%
صافي الدخل$1.70B$1.75B$1.51B$1.55B-2.9%
EPS (مخفف)$8.04$8.53$7.53$7.96-0.3%
EBITDA$3.10B$3.37B$3.37B$3.75B+6.5%
البحث والتطوير
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$4.85B$5.31B$5.66B$6.49B+10.2%

درجات الجودة

OCF / صافي الدخل
2.49×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Fail
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
23.1%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

التدفق النقدي

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

COR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, COR looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $261 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $428 (range $342–$515), which implies roughly 63.9% upside to the midpoint.
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