بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
EMN — frequently asked questions
Is Eastman Chemical Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-15, EMN looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 62.9 USD versus our fair value of 70.1 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 91.3 USD. That implies roughly 11.4% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-15, gives EMN a fair value of 70.1 USD and a potential value of 91.3 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Eastman Chemical Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy EMN now?
Our latest published rating for EMN, analyzed 2026-10-15, is Buy. Eastman Chemical Company looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 62.9 USD versus fair value of 70.1 USD; potential value is 91.3 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for EMN?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-15 documents Eastman Chemical Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is EMN's rating?
Our latest published rating for EMN, analyzed 2026-10-15, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 70.1 USD, the potential value of 91.3 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (62.9 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةBuy
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$62.88
Fair value
$70.07
Potential value
$91.33
As of
2026-10-14
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Successful commercialization and full capacity ramp of Kingsport molecular recycling operations, delivering mix-accretive circular polymers with above-average variable margins.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Severe feedstock spread compression in Chemical Intermediates combined with synchronized global industrial manufacturing stagnation.
We rate Eastman Chemical Company Buy with an intrinsic Fair value of $70.07, representing 11.4% upside from the analysis price of $62.88 as operating margins recover from cyclical lows.
The house rating is Buy. For an investor, this recommendation indicates an attractive opportunity to build exposure to a specialty materials leader as multi-year structural cost initiatives and operational volume improvements take hold.
Shares traded at $62.88 on $62.88 (as of 2026-10-14), standing at an appealing discount to our Fair value of $70.07 and well below our Potential value of $91.33. This gap provides 11.4% upside to the midpoint as cyclical earnings power normalizes.
The primary investment risk is prolonged macroeconomic weakness in Chemical Intermediates, where segment sales stood at $1,925 million in FY2025, combined with customer destocking across global end markets. If raw material and energy inflation outpace contract adjustments, consolidated could remain depressed below the 8.87% level recorded in FY2025.
The central catalyst for value creation is the realization of $125 million to $150 million in affirmed net structural cost reductions for 2026, combined with the operational ramp of the Kingsport molecular recycling facility toward full capacity. Expanding high-margin recycled polymer output upgrades product mix and drives earnings toward consensus FY2027 diluted EPS of $6.79.1,4
Structural Cost Transformation
Management affirmed delivery of $125 million to $150 million in net structural cost reductions for 2026, directly expanding operating margins from cyclical lows.4
Proprietary Molecular Recycling Scale
Plant trials confirm operational capability to ramp Kingsport rPET to full capacity, delivering premium margin mix to Advanced Materials.4
Disciplined Specialty Pricing and Contract Protection
Formulaic pass-through agreements cover raw material, energy, and logistics inflation, preserving market share and cash flow stability.4
توصية الدار
We recommend a Buy rating because structural cost reductions and commercial scaling in circular specialty plastics provide 11.4% upside to our Fair value of $70.07.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Eastman Chemical Company is a global specialty materials producer that manufactures differentiated chemicals, fibers, and performance plastics. The company operates through four principal segments: Additives & Functional Products, Advanced Materials, Chemical Intermediates, and Fibers.
The company leverages integrated technology platforms across cellulosic biopolymer, acetyl, olefins, polyester, and alkylamine streams to manufacture high-value specialty products with cost-advantaged scale. Chemical Intermediates consumes key feedstock streams to support internal specialty operations while selling surplus intermediate chemicals into industrial, construction, and consumer packaging markets.
Eastman serves a diversified global customer base across transportation, building and construction, consumer goods, and agriculture, generating $3,662 million in domestic sales and $4,140 million across international markets in FY2025.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
In a severe cyclical downturn, prolonged end-market weakness in Chemical Intermediates from Middle East logistics tensions combines with extended customer hesitation to build inventories. If technical line-out hurdles at Kingsport further delay commercial rPET volume shipments, consolidated operating margins remain depressed near FY2025's 8.87% level. Under these stress conditions, earnings per share would fail to reach the consensus FY2026 forecast of $6.35, testing downside valuation levels near $50.80.
The downside path contemplates extended industrial contraction, severe raw material spread compression, and delayed commercialization of molecular recycling assets. Under these conditions, customer destocking persists across domestic and foreign end markets while feedstock cost inflation erodes profitability in intermediate chemical chains. The reader would identify this path unfolding through declining segment volumes, persistent plant turnaround cost overruns, and an inability to maintain price discipline during contract renewals over the coming fiscal periods.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
Severe Feedstock Spread Compression and Plant Turnaround Cost Overruns
Energy headwinds and raw material inflation compress product spreads while utilizations remain depressed, exacerbated by Middle East logistics disruptions in Chemical Intermediates and $40M-$45M in quarterly turnaround headwinds, driving operating margins below FY2025's 8.87% EBIT level.3,4
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Operating margin fails to rebound into the 11.0% to 12.0% range, indicating structural cost savings of $125M-$150M are being absorbed by raw material inflation and turnaround costs.
الحالي:8.87% in FY2025
تنبيه إذاBelow 9.0% in FY2026
02
§3 الميزة التنافسيةEN
Narrow
Eastman Chemical Company possesses a Narrow economic moat underpinned by customer switching costs in formulated specialty additives and proprietary technology platforms in advanced circular polymers. The company's specialty portfolio is tightly integrated with customer manufacturing processes in high-specification end markets such as automotive interlayers, aviation fluids, and medical packaging, creating significant friction and qualification barriers for competing alternatives.
The competitive advantage is reinforced by cost advantages stemming from large-scale vertical integration across cellulosic biopolymer, acetyl, and olefins chemical streams. By supplying internal feedstock requirements to downstream specialty businesses at advantaged cost, Eastman protects variable margins while commercializing surplus intermediates in global merchant markets.
Pricing discipline and contractual cost pass-through mechanisms further defend the company's economic returns. During inflationary periods, formulaic pass-through agreements across specialty lines insulate earnings from raw material and energy cost surges without incurring market share losses.
الربح الاقتصادي
Eastman's mid-cycle normalized returns on invested capital are positioned to exceed its moderate cost of equity of 9.63%, established via a risk-free rate of 5.21%, an equity risk premium of 4.20%, and an adjusted beta of 1.0535. While FY2025 EBIT of $776 million reflected cyclical trough conditions, economic profits are expected to expand as operating margins recover toward 11.0% to 12.0%.2,3
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Customer Switching Costs — Specialty interlayers and performance additives are embedded into mission-critical customer specifications in aviation, automotive, and packaging applications, where formulaic cost pass-through agreements support margin stability.Moderate
02Cost Advantage via Vertical Integration — Integrated production streams across cellulosic biopolymers, acetyls, and olefins enable high asset utilization and low unit conversion costs, supplying captive feedstocks to specialty units.Moderate
03Intangible Assets and Process Technology — Proprietary polyester renewal molecular recycling technology operating at Kingsport provides differentiated, drop-in circular plastics with variable margins above the corporate average.
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Volatile raw material and energy input costs compressing intermediate product spreads
medium
6 to 12 months
Formulaic contractual cost pass-throughs and disciplined price increases implemented across commercial accounts.4
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
69.82 US$
69.95 US$
70.07 US$
70.18 US$
70.34 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 5 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($70.07). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
Global industrial manufacturing demand reaccelerates sharply, driving strong volume recovery across specialty segments.
Kingsport circular renewal facility reaches full nameplate capacity with premium product mix realization.
Formulaic cost pass-through agreements preserve price realization while raw material and energy costs decline.
In the upside path, shares reach $91.33 with an estimated probability of 20.0%, offering an implied return of 45.2% from $62.88. This scenario requires global industrial activity to reaccelerate rapidly, lifting volume demand across specialty additives and advanced materials. Simultaneously, the Kingsport circular plastics platform must ramp seamlessly to full nameplate capacity, capturing premium mix pricing from major consumer brands. Disconfirmation would occur if quarterly volume growth stalls or if customer price increases are rolled back under peer competitive pressure by the middle of FY2027.
Management achieves affirmed net structural operating expense reductions across the organization.
Commercial ramping at Kingsport progresses through mechanical line-out stages toward full utilization.
§7 شجرة قرارات الأرباحEN
تجاوز
Maintain Buy; Maintain position and evaluate expanding allocation toward maximum portfolio limits while verifying that volume acceleration extends into subsequent quarters.
المُحفِّز: Consolidated quarterly revenue and operating profit exceed consensus expectations, accompanied by operating margin expansion above normalized target trajectories.
A quarterly beat indicates accelerated operational absorption from structural cost reduction programs alongside rapid customer adoption of molecular recycling volumes, validating faster earnings normalization.
متوافق
Maintain Buy; Rebalance position in line with portfolio risk limits and continue tracking circular polymer facility utilization milestones.
المُحفِّز: Quarterly financial results meet consensus revenue and earnings expectations, with operating margins tracking within projected recovery ranges.
In-line execution demonstrates that affirmed net cost savings are being delivered as scheduled and that specialty pricing power remains intact despite ongoing macroeconomic caution.
دون التوقعات
Downgrade the rating; Pause additional capital deployment, reassess the operational timeline for Kingsport facility commercialization, and review downside protection thresholds.
المُحفِّز: Quarterly revenue contracts and operating margins decline below cyclical trough levels due to unrecovered raw material inflation or plant turnaround overruns.
A significant quarterly shortfall would indicate that cost takeouts are being overwhelmed by feedstock inflation or that mechanical bottlenecks at the circular recycling plant are worsening.
جودة الأرباح
Earnings quality is supported by solid cash conversion through cyclical trough conditions, with operating cash flow continuing to exceed net income. Working capital management remains disciplined, and inventory balances are actively aligned with customer ordering patterns. High contractual cost pass-through coverage across formulated specialty lines reinforces gross margin durability, ensuring that reported earnings accurately reflect underlying operational performance rather than accounting accruals.
زخم التقديرات
Consensus analyst revisions have stabilized following recent earnings disclosures, reflecting balanced expectations as affirmed structural cost savings offset near-term macroeconomic slowness.
الحاليManagement has affirmed net structural cost reduction delivery while implementing disciplined price increases across specialty lines.
لماذا يهم
Operating margin expansion reveals whether structural cost reductions are dropping to the bottom line or being consumed by input cost inflation, directly driving mid-cycle earnings power per share.
Eastman demonstrated resilient cash generation during cyclical trough conditions, producing $970 million in operating cash flow and $424 million in free cash flow in FY2025. Operating income reached $931 million, supporting ongoing capital expenditure of $546 million against depreciation of $513 million. As management delivers on $125 million to $150 million in affirmed net structural cost reductions for 2026 and working capital needs stabilize, operating cash conversion is expected to strengthen meaningfully.3,4,5,6
Return on invested capital is troughing following cyclical margin compression in FY2025 where EBIT was $776 million. ROIC is projected to expand steadily over the five-year forecast horizon as operating margins expand from 8.87% toward 12.0% on structural cost takeouts and higher circular specialty plant utilization.
Normalized mid-cycle ROIC is projected to comfortably exceed Eastman's moderate cost of equity of 9.63%, derived from a 5.21% risk-free rate, 4.20% equity risk premium, and 1.0535 adjusted beta, confirming positive economic value added across the cycle.
أحدث إيرادات8.8 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات −0.3%
هامش التشغيل10.6%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر424 مليون US$FY2025
صافي الدين4.5 مليار US$FY2025
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.30 يونيو 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات2.5 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−2 مليار US$إجمالي الربح560 مليون US$المصروفات التشغيلية−250 مليون US$الدخل التشغيلي310 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−127 مليون US$صافي الدخل183 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
2,513,000,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
1,953,000,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
560,000,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
250,000,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
310,000,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-127,000,000 US$
صافي الدخل
183,000,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول14.9 مليار US$النقد566 مليون US$الأصول المتداولة3.6 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات8.8 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة2.7 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين6 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
14,859,000,000 US$
النقد
566,000,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
3,645,000,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
8,822,000,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
2,652,000,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
6,037,000,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل474 مليون US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+513 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى−17 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي970 مليون US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة837 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+970 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−462 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−797 مليون US$تأثير سعر الصرف+18 مليون US$النقد في نهاية الفترة566 مليون US$
970 مليون US$ − 546 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 424 مليون US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
474,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
987,000,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
513,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
970,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج
17,000,000 US$
النقد المتاح
1,825,000,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
837,000,000 US$
تأثير سعر الصرف
18,000,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
462,000,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
797,000,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
100,000,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
381,000,000 US$
صافي سداد الدين
304,000,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
12,000,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
566,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-462,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-797,000,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2025-12-31.
8.8 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة
Additives And Functional Products2.9 مليار US$32.9%+0.6% على أساس سنوي
Advanced Materials2.9 مليار US$32.9%−5.6% على أساس سنوي
Chemical Intermediates1.9 مليار US$22%−9.8% على أساس سنوي
Fibers1.1 مليار US$12%−20.3% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-13 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Additives And Functional Products
2.9 مليار US$
32.9%
0.6%
Advanced Materials
2.9 مليار US$
32.9%
-5.6%
Chemical Intermediates
1.9 مليار US$
22%
-9.8%
Fibers
1.1 مليار US$
12%
-20.3%
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2025-12-31.
8.8 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة
All Foreign4.1 مليار US$47.3%−8.7% على أساس سنوي
United States3.7 مليار US$41.8%−2.9% على أساس سنوي
China950 مليون US$10.9%−11.5% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-13 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
All Foreign
4.1 مليار US$
47.3%
-8.7%
United States
3.7 مليار US$
41.8%
-2.9%
China
950 مليون US$
10.9%
-11.5%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) trades at 9.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 14.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.6x compares with a peer median of 11.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: DuPont de Nemours Inc., Albemarle Corporation, International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. and PPG Industries Inc., as of 2026-10-15.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Trough
The basic materials sector displays capital discipline, with industry capex-to-depreciation standing at 1.55 and industry capex-to-revenue at 4.1%, while industry operating margins average 12.4%. Eastman's own capital expenditure of $546 million aligned closely with depreciation of $513 million, demonstrating disciplined capacity additions.
دورة صعودية
An upturn driven by global industrial manufacturing reacceleration, end-market inventory restocking, and expanding price-cost spreads, propelling Eastman's operating margins above the industry benchmark of 12.4%.
دورة هبوطية
A protracted cyclical downturn characterized by persistent high energy feedstocks, customer destocking, and weak building and construction demand, holding operating margins below 9.0%.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Transition to Circular Plastics and Sustainable Packaging
positive
Rising regulatory mandates and brand owner sustainability commitments drive sustained demand for certified recycled polymers, positioning Eastman's Kingsport polyester renewal technology for premium growth.
High-Performance Materials Formulations
positive
Expanding demand for advanced interlayers in automotive acoustic and heads-up display applications, alongside specialty films, creates long-term volume tailwinds for Advanced Materials.
التموضع
Eastman is strategically positioned as a differentiated specialty producer with 41.8% of FY2025 revenues generated in the United States and 47.3% across international markets. Its contractual pass-through structures and proprietary molecular recycling platform allow it to defend margins better than pure commodity peers.4,7
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
3-4%
A moderate position weighting reflects the attractive upside toward our Fair value balanced against cyclical exposure in chemical intermediates and near-term line-out pacing in circular plastics.
المخاطر
Risk management centers on monitoring gross margin durability across raw material price cycles and verifying the execution of affirmed cost takeout milestones. Capital should be allocated in staggered tranches to mitigate downside from broader industrial manufacturing weakness, while portfolio exposure is capped within disciplined cyclical sector guidelines.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
$62.88
Initiate Primary Tranche
Establish initial position at $62.88 as share prices trade at a meaningful discount offering 11.4% upside to Fair value.
Extended pullback
Accumulate Secondary Tranche
Deploy additional capital on extended pullbacks, securing an expanded margin of safety against cyclical intermediate volatility.
Eastman trades at an attractive valuation relative to normalized mid-cycle earnings power, providing 11.4% upside to Fair value as operating profit recovers.
Specialty Turnaround Investor
Buy
Management's delivery on structural cost savings programs alongside pricing discipline provides clear operational leverage as customer order volumes normalize.
Long-Term Sustainability Investor
Buy
Proprietary molecular recycling infrastructure establishes a durable competitive moat in circular plastics, capturing high-margin premium demand over a multi-year horizon.
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
شراء
We recommend a Buy rating on Eastman Chemical Company. Shares traded at $62.88 on $62.88 (as of 2026-10-14), offering 11.4% upside to our Fair value of $70.07 and substantial long-term optionality toward Potential value of $91.33.
The investment thesis is driven by structural cost reductions, volume recovery across formulated specialty plastics, and margin expansion from commercial molecular recycling operations.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-15 · Published 2026-10-15 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 3 figuresCited in الملخص التنفيذي, السيناريو الهبوطي
Macro and cost of capitalData as of 2026-10-15 · Published 2026-10-15 · cited for 4 figuresCited in الميزة التنافسية, التاريخ المالي
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Cyclical Valuation Derating on Persistent Commodity Mix Drag
Sluggish customer adoption in specialty packaging and weakness in Chemical Intermediates cause the market to re-rate Eastman toward commodity chemical peers like Albemarle at 8.7x rather than specialty multiples, compressing the terminal P/E from 11.0x.3,7
FV impact
-6.5%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Synchronous Global Industrial Stagnation and Customer Destocking
Management reports widespread macroeconomic weakness across both domestic and foreign markets with customers unwilling to build inventory, while Kingsport rPET line-out challenges constrain volume ramp, invalidating the projected FY2026 revenue rebound to $9.26B.1,4,7
FV impact
-2%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Synchronous economic weakness across the United States ($3,662 million in FY2025) and foreign markets ($4,140 million in FY2025) prevents volume recovery.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
How this lens was calculated
Inputs used in this report
North American and European industrial end-market demand normalizes without severe recessionary shock.
The modal path projects shares achieving $70.07 with an estimated probability of 55.0%, generating an implied return of 11.4% relative to $62.88. For this path to unfold, management must execute on affirmed structural cost savings programs while operational line-out progress at the Kingsport facility enables orderly volume expansion across FY2026 and FY2027. This path would be disconfirmed if operating margins fail to expand above cyclical trough levels or if customer destocking in chemical intermediates persists past the conclusion of FY2026.
Mechanical line-out challenges prompted initial pacing adjustments, but plant testing has demonstrated operational capability to run at full capacity.
لماذا يهم
Operational ramp to full capacity demonstrates commercial viability of the circular technology, unlocking mix-accretive variable margins and lifting Advanced Materials profitability.
03
المقياس:
Chemical Intermediates Product Spreads
الحاليMargins face moderation from regional logistics friction and energy cost volatility in overseas markets.
لماذا يهم
Spread health in acetyls and olefins indicates basic chemical supply-demand balance, driving segment cash generation and preventing negative earnings drag on specialty units.
04
المقياس:
Customer Order Volumes and Restocking Patterns
الحاليCustomers maintain lean inventories amidst macroeconomic caution, with order patterns reflecting cautious near-term commitments.
لماذا يهم
Shifts from cautious hand-to-mouth purchasing toward order restocking reveal underlying industrial demand inflection, accelerating consolidated revenue growth.
Eastman maintains a disciplined, shareholder-focused capital allocation framework. Historically, management deployed capital into synergistic specialty acquisitions such as Solutia and Taminco at disciplined valuations around 9x EBITDA. The current strategy emphasizes organic growth investments, notably scaling the Kingsport circular facility toward 100% capacity, alongside sustaining a reliable common dividend and executing opportunistic share repurchases as diluted shares outstanding stood at 115.6 million at year-end FY2025.
القيمة العادلة99.48 US$Report-date price105.07 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةNarrow
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار61 / 100
الهامش
EMN
Eastman Chemical Company
$7.2B
9.2x
0.8x
8.6x
7.3%
—
DD
DuPont de Nemours Inc.
$17.3B
16.1x
2.5x
11.9x
1.8%
14.2%
ALB
Albemarle Corporation
$11.6B
8.7x
2.0x
9.7x
2.6%
27.7%
IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
$22.9B
22.6x
2.1x
15.0x
-5.5%
8.5%
PPG
PPG Industries Inc.
$23.3B
12.2x
1.4x
10.9x
19.3%
14.0%
Geopolitical and Regional Supply Chain Realignment
neutral
Ongoing trade friction and regional logistics disruptions increase the value of domestic North American supply security ($3,662 million revenue) while introducing volatility into foreign intermediate exports ($4,140 million revenue).
Reassess commercial adoption rate of Kingsport circular rPET and reduce exposure.