بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
FOXA — frequently asked questions
Is Fox Corporation Class A overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-05, FOXA looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 63.3 USD versus our fair value of 83.8 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 137 USD. That implies roughly 32.3% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-05, gives FOXA a fair value of 83.8 USD and a potential value of 137 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Fox Corporation Class A's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy FOXA now?
Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy. Fox Corporation Class A looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 63.3 USD versus fair value of 83.8 USD; potential value is 137 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for FOXA?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-05 documents Fox Corporation Class A's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is FOXA's rating?
Our latest published rating for FOXA, analyzed 2026-10-05, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 83.8 USD, the potential value of 137 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (63.3 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةBuy
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$63.33
Fair value
$83.77
Potential value
$137.46
As of
2026-10-05
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Accelerating digital profitability as Tubi maintains >30% top-line growth and eliminates digital investment losses (<$200M in FY2026), combined with record midterm political advertising and continued $2.0B annual share repurchases that compound diluted EPS toward consensus highs.
We assign a Buy rating to Fox Corporation Class A, reflecting a 32.3% implied return to our Fair value of USD 83.77 as live sports rights, election-cycle political advertising, and rapid Tubi streaming monetization generate strong free cash flow to fund aggressive share repurchases.
Our Buy rating indicates that Fox Corporation Class A offers an attractive risk-adjusted entry point for long-term equity investors seeking cash-generative compounding. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation signifies that the company's underlying earnings power and balance sheet capital returns are substantially undervalued relative to the cash flows produced by its core broadcast television, news, and digital streaming franchises.
The stock was priced at USD 63.33 on October 5, 2026. At this price, the shares trade at an implied return of 32.3% to our Fair value of USD 83.77, representing a 24.4% price discount. Under our constructive expansion path, Fox's reaches USD 137.46, offering substantial multi-year upside should digital streaming profitability and advertising pricing exceed expectations.
The primary risk to our investment thesis is an acceleration in secular pay-television cord-cutting beyond contractual affiliate price increases. Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in revenue in fiscal 2026 and supports consolidated operating income of $3,345M. If annual subscriber attrition accelerates beyond 8%, affiliate revenue erosion would outpace contractual rate escalators, compressing cable operating margins below 20% and reducing consolidated free cash flow available for share repurchases.4,8
The central driver of equity outperformance is Fox's disciplined, cash-generative operating model anchored by live event sports and unscripted news. The Television segment delivered $9,666M in fiscal 2026 revenue, supported by NFL rights secured through 2029 and anticipated record midterm political advertising. Concurrently, Tubi grew revenue by 35% while net digital investment losses narrowed below $200M. Because capital expenditures require only $502M, the business generated $1,468M in free cash flow, enabling $2,000M in annual share repurchases that retire 3% to 4% of shares outstanding annually and compound per-share intrinsic value toward our USD 83.77 Fair value.5,6,7,8
Locked NFL broadcasting agreements through 2029 and Fox News brand loyalty provide must-have carriage, defending Television ($9,666M in FY2026) and Cable ($7,348M in FY2026) revenues against linear fragmentation.5,8
Capital-Light Model Funding Aggressive Share Repurchases
With modest capex of $502M (2.93% of revenue), Fox converted $1,970M operating cash flow into $1,468M free cash flow, enabling $2,000M in annual share repurchases that retire 3% to 4% of shares annually to compound EPS.6,7
Digital Inflection at Tubi with Narrowing Losses
Tubi delivered 35% revenue growth in FY2026 while net digital investment losses fell below $200M, establishing an AVOD growth engine that monetizes cord-cutters without multi-billion-dollar SVOD deficit spending.5
توصية الدار
We rate Fox Corporation Class A a Buy because its dominant live sports and news franchises generate robust, asset-light free cash flow that consistently funds share repurchases to drive double-digit earnings per share compounding.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Fox Corporation is a news, sports, and entertainment company operating primarily through two core business segments: Television and Cable Network Programming. In fiscal 2026, the Television segment generated $9,666M in revenue, comprising the FOX broadcast network, 29 owned-and-operated local television stations, and Tubi, a leading free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) platform. Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in revenue, encompassing news and sports cable channels including Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2, and the FOX One direct-to-consumer digital subscription service.
The company serves audiences, multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs), digital platforms, and brand advertisers across the United States. Its revenue model is anchored by contractual affiliate carriage fees paid by traditional and virtual distributors alongside advertising revenue driven by live sports telecasts, marquee unscripted news broadcasts, and digital connected TV ad inventory on Tubi.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
Under a combined stress environment where linear cord-cutting accelerates beyond 8% annually, programmatic connected television advertising supply dilutes AVOD CPM pricing, and net leverage from planned corporate transactions reaches 2.8x against total debt of $7,568M in a 5.24% risk-free rate environment, consolidated operating margins compress toward 15-16%. Annual free cash flow would contract, compelling management to scale back annual share repurchases below $1,000M, testing balance sheet flexibility and limiting per-share compounding.
Connected TV programmatic advertising inventory oversupply depresses Tubi monetization and delays digital breakeven.
Higher leverage and debt service costs following transaction execution constrain discretionary capital return and curtail share repurchases.
In the bear case, severe pay-TV subscriber attrition overwhelms contractual pricing escalators, while programmatic ad market dilution and elevated debt service compress operating margins and restrict share buybacks.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
Severe cord-cutting and linear affiliate revolt accelerates subscriber attrition beyond contractual rate increases, collapsing cable programming profitability.
Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M in FY2026 and supported $3,345M of consolidated operating income. If subscriber losses exceed 8% annually, margins drop below 20%, triggering operating margin contraction across the firm.4,8
FV impact
-7.3%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Fox Corporation maintains a Narrow economic moat supported by structural advantages in live sports broadcasting agreements, the indispensable brand franchise of Fox News, and the digital reach platform of Tubi. In broadcast television, Fox holds exclusive telecast agreements for NFL football locked through 2029 with contractual stability confirmed for the next four years before any rights opt-out period. Live event sports consumption, where Fox topped all broadcast networks in fiscal 2026, provides appointment viewing that cannot be replicated by on-demand scripted entertainment, preserving linear mass audience reach and premium advertiser pricing.
The Cable Network Programming segment ($7,348M in FY2026 revenue, 42.91% of consolidated revenue) functions as a high-margin cash generator that anchors consolidated operating income of $3,345M. Fox News commands essential carriage positioning across traditional multichannel video programming distributors and virtual MVPD platforms. Contractual affiliate fee escalation clauses have largely absorbed ongoing mid-single-digit secular subscriber volume declines, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows and peer-leading cable operating margins of 25.21%.
In digital streaming, Fox has executed a capital-efficient digital transition centered on Tubi (FAST/AVOD) and FOX One, avoiding the multi-billion-dollar direct-to-consumer content deficit spending that has impaired legacy media peers. Tubi achieved 35% revenue growth in FY2026 driven by proactive video-on-demand viewing, while total digital net investment losses contracted from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026. While secular linear pay-TV subscriber cord-cutting prevents a Wide moat rating, locked sports contracts and cash generation justify a 5-year stage II competitive fade duration.
الربح الاقتصادي
Fox generates durable economic profits, supported by FY2026 operating cash flow of $1,970M and free cash flow of $1,468M on consolidated revenues of $17,126M. Return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.41% exceeds the company's moderate cost of equity of 8.2601% and computed WACC of 7.4102% by approximately 700 basis points, reflecting an asset-light operating model with low capital expenditures ($502M in FY2026).2,6,7
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Intangible assets (long-term marquee live sports broadcast rights and Fox News brand franchise) — Fox holds exclusive broadcast telecast rights for NFL football locked through 2029 with no contractual term changes for four years, creating appointment viewing that commands premium upfront advertiser pricing and preserves broad broadcast reach.Wide
02Distribution scale and must-have broadcast reach in live unscripted content — Television generated $9,666M in FY2026 and Cable Network Programming generated $7,348M, supporting must-have retransmission and affiliate fee carriage across traditional MVPDs and virtual MVPDs.Moderate
03
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Linear pay-TV cord-cutting acceleration beyond contractual affiliate rate increases.
high
12-24 months
Must-have live sports and news distribution across virtual MVPD tiers (YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV), contracted affiliate rate inflators, and non-linear reach via Tubi and incremental FOX One subscribers.5
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
تغير المدة (سنوات)
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($83.77). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.3B after modeled reinvestment of $202.2M, with terminal value at 81.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Tubi digital investment losses continue narrowing toward operating breakeven.5
Consistent multi-billion-dollar share repurchases retire several percent of diluted shares annually.5
In the base case, Fox executes as a disciplined mature compounder where contractual sports telecast rights and Fox News must-have distribution generate durable free cash flow. Ongoing share repurchases compound per-share earnings, supporting intrinsic value at $83.77, representing an implied return of 32.3% from $63.33.
Television advertising outperforms as midterm political ad spending sets historical records and upfront sports inventory commands premium rates.5
Tubi sustains rapid top-line growth and transitions to positive operating contribution as digital investment drag is eliminated.
§7 شجرة قرارات الأرباحEN
تجاوز
Upgrade the rating; Evaluate incremental position expansion and monitor whether digital profit inflection provides sustainable operating margin expansion beyond tournament-boosted quarters.
المُحفِّز: Diluted earnings per share and Television segment revenue exceed consensus expectations driven by record midterm political advertising and Tubi revenue growth accelerating above historical pacing.
An earnings beat driven by outsized political advertising capture and faster digital breakeven accelerates free cash flow generation, increases share repurchase pacing, and expands intrinsic value per share toward Potential value.
متوافق
Maintain Buy; Maintain existing allocation, verifying that share buyback execution continues as planned through pending transaction financing.
المُحفِّز: Diluted earnings per share and consolidated revenue track consensus expectations with scheduled affiliate rate increases offsetting pay-TV cord-cutting and steady share repurchases.
In-line financial execution affirms the mature compounder thesis, verifying that contractual pricing escalation and ongoing share retirements continue to drive per-share value compounding.
دون التوقعات
Downgrade the rating; Review exposure, pause incremental capital deployment, and reassess debt leverage thresholds and buyback execution.
المُحفِّز: Diluted earnings per share or Cable Network Programming affiliate revenues contract below consensus as pay-TV subscriber attrition accelerates beyond rate escalators or programmatic ad pricing weakens.
An operational miss stemming from deteriorating cable affiliate fees or digital advertising pricing softness would compress operating margins and constrain capital return capacity.
Consensus earnings expectations for the upcoming fiscal years have held steady following fourth-quarter results, balancing cyclical political advertising momentum against linear pay-TV subscriber attrition and comparison hurdles from non-recurring tournament broadcasts.
المقاييس التي يجب مراقبتها قبل الإعلان
01
المقياس:
Cable Network Programming affiliate fee yields and subscriber trends
الحاليContractual affiliate escalators are absorbing volume declines, with must-have live sports and news carriage maintaining carriage tier positioning across distributors.
لماذا يهم
Measures whether contractual per-subscriber fee increases continue to offset pay-TV cord-cutting attrition, sustaining high-margin annuity cash flows that fund capital returns.
02
المقياس:
Tubi ad revenue growth and digital profitability inflection
Fox maintains an aggressive, disciplined capital return program, deploying $2,000M into share repurchases in FY2026 alongside $243M in dividend payments and a semiannual dividend increase to $0.29 per share. Share buybacks have reduced diluted shares from 570M in FY2022 to 439M in FY2026. While FY2026 repurchases exceeded annual free cash flow of $1,468M, liquidity is supported by $4,205M in cash reserves, though net is guided to reach 2.8x upon closing the planned Roku transaction against total debt of $7,568M.
Asset-light broadcast operations, disciplined rights renewals, and minimal fixed capital investment allow Fox to generate economic returns substantially above its cost of capital.
ROIC of 14.41% exceeds computed WACC of 7.4102% and moderate cost of equity Ke of 8.2601% by approximately 700 bps, generating durable economic value.
Share repurchases are the primary driver of double-digit EPS expansion.
Fox repurchased $2,000M of stock in FY2026, lowering diluted share count to 439M and compounding diluted EPS from $3.84 in FY2026 toward consensus $5.85 in FY2028.
Per-share earnings growth will consistently outpace revenue growth even in low-single-digit top-line environments.
Narrow digital investment drag is expanding consolidated .
أحدث إيرادات17.1 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +6.3%
هامش التشغيل19.5%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر1.5 مليار US$FY2026
صافي الدين2.4 مليار US$FY2026
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.30 يونيو 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات4.2 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−2.2 مليار US$إجمالي الربح2 مليار US$المصروفات التشغيلية−1 مليار US$الدخل التشغيلي985 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−294 مليون US$صافي الدخل691 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
4,212,000,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
2,182,000,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
2,030,000,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
1,045,000,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
985,000,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-294,000,000 US$
صافي الدخل
691,000,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول22.5 مليار US$النقد4.2 مليار US$الأصول المتداولة8.5 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات10.8 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة2.7 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين11.7 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
22,482,000,000 US$
النقد
4,205,000,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
8,453,000,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
10,754,000,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
2,667,000,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
11,728,000,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل1.7 مليار US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+410 مليون US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+132 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى−257 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي2 مليار US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة5.4 مليار US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+2 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−705 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−2.4 مليار US$النقد في نهاية الفترة4.2 مليار US$
2 مليار US$ − 502 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 1.5 مليار US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
1,685,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
2,227,000,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
410,000,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
132,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
1,970,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج
257,000,000 US$
النقد المتاح
7,321,000,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
5,351,000,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
705,000,000 US$
النفقات الرأسمالية
502,000,000 US$
أنشطة استثمارية أخرى
203,000,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
2,411,000,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
2,000,000,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
287,000,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
124,000,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
4,205,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-705,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-2,411,000,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2026-06-30.
4.2 مليارإجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة
Cost of2.2 مليار51.8%
أخرى2 مليار48.2%
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Cost of
2.2 مليار
51.8%
—
Other
2 مليار
48.2%
—
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
Fox Corporation Class A (FOXA) trades at 11.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.6x compares with a peer median of 16.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Live Nation Entertainment Inc., Fox Corporation Class B, Netflix Inc. and News Corp Class B, as of 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-05.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Contraction
Industry capex-to-depreciation stands at 0.63 and industry capex-to-revenue is -1.3%, reflecting capital discipline and subdued fixed asset reinvestment across the media broadcasting sector. Fox's own capex of $502M in FY2026 relative to D&A of $410M reinforces this low capital intensity. Capacity and lead-time data are unavailable, so the capital cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
دورة صعودية
The broadcast and media bull cycle is powered by biennial political advertising surges, marquee live sports viewership records, contractual retransmission and affiliate fee inflation, and rapid AVOD streaming monetization.
دورة هبوطية
The media broadcast bear cycle is characterized by accelerating linear pay-TV cord-cutting, subscriber resistance to traditional cable bundle pricing, off-cycle political advertising vacuums, and programmatic connected TV inventory dilution that compresses ad CPMs.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Secular pay-TV linear cord-cutting
negative
Accelerating subscriber attrition across traditional cable and satellite distributors erodes pay-TV bundle penetration, putting pressure on linear affiliate revenues.
Migration of viewership to ad-supported connected TV (AVOD/FAST)
positive
Audiences are shifting toward ad-supported streaming platforms, enabling Tubi's 35% revenue growth with high user engagement.
التموضع
Fox is positioned as a focused live sports and unscripted news broadcaster with an asset-light AVOD streaming wing (Tubi), intentionally avoiding capital-intensive scripted SVOD entertainment production.
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
3-5%
Supported by stable free cash flow ($1,468M in FY2026), locked sports telecast rights through 2029, and continuous $2,000M share repurchases that provide strong downside support.5,6
المخاطر
Position risk is managed by capping portfolio weighting at 5%, monitoring quarterly linear cord-cutting trends and affiliate negotiations, and tracking balance sheet net leverage through the completion of planned corporate transactions.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
$60.00 - $64.00
Initiate core position
Provides attractive entry at a 24.4% discount to Fair value ($83.77) with forward P/E of 11.11x.
Re-underwrite terminal value and assess whether affiliate fee resistance is impairing annuity cash flows.
Tubi annual
§12 وجهات نظر المستثمرينEN
Value Investor
Buy
Fox trades at an attractive forward multiple of 11.11x and a 24.4% discount to Fair value ($83.77), backed by $1,468M in annual FCF and $4,205M cash.4,6,7
Income and Total Return Investor
Buy
A rising $0.29 semiannual dividend combined with $2,000M in annual share buybacks delivers an exceptional 8%+ total capital return yield.5
Risk-Conscious / Bear Perspective
Hold
Secular cord-cutting could erode Cable Network Programming's $7,348M revenue if subscriber losses exceed 8% annually, while leverage reaching 2.8x could constrain future repurchases.5,8
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
شراء
Fox Corporation presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile, trading at USD 63.33 as of October 5, 2026, a 24.4% discount to our Fair value of USD 83.77 (32.3% implied return). Live sports and news franchises insulate cash generation against linear erosion.4
Strong free cash flow of $1,468M and $4,205M in cash reserves back consistent $2.0B annual share buybacks, driving per-share earnings compounding even in low top-line growth environments.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-05 · Published 2026-10-05 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in السيناريو الهبوطي, التاريخ المالي
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-10-05 · Published 2026-10-05 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in الميزة التنافسية, السيناريو الهبوطي
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Roku transaction leverage spike and rising refinancing spreads elevate cost of capital and constrain buybacks.
Total debt of $7,568M and transaction leverage rising to 2.8x in a 5.24% risk-free rate environment pushes pre-tax cost of debt higher, lifting computed WACC from 7.4102% by over 100 bps.2,4,5
FV impact
-13.4%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 18 months
Broad CTV advertising saturation and post-election cyclical ad slump depress 5-year top-line growth.
Consolidated revenue was $17,126M in FY2026 and consensus already models -0.14% revenue growth in FY2028 ($17,657M) after the non-recurring World Cup tournament. A persistent CTV programmatic pricing downturn and accelerating cord-cutting reduces revenue growth by 5 percentage points.1,5,7
FV impact
-11.6%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Rising pre-tax debt financing spreads and transaction leverage reaching 2.8x elevating cost of capital.
الحالي:7.4102%
تنبيه إذا> 8.41%
Platform breadth and AVOD network reach (Tubi streaming platform engagement)
— Tubi delivered 35% revenue growth in FY2026 with expanding on-demand video engagement, while digital investment losses narrowed from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026.
Moderate
Sports rights fee inflation and renewal bidding competition from tech streaming platforms upon contract expiration.
medium
3-5 years
Contractual NFL telecast rights locked through 2029 with four years of contractual visibility prior to any opt-out discussion.5
Connected TV programmatic advertising inventory oversupply dampening AVOD monetization.
medium
12-18 months
Focus on high-engagement video-on-demand orientation commanding premium direct advertiser value and declining digital net cash investment losses below $200M.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (24.11 US$) plus discounted terminal value (109 US$) minus signed per current share (5.69 US$) equals the 128 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Robust free cash flow accelerates share repurchases, compounding diluted earnings per share toward the upper boundary of expectations.
In the bull case, outsized political advertising capture across broadcast stations and accelerating Tubi ad monetization eliminate digital investment drag, expanding consolidated margins and compounding per-share value toward $137.46.
الحالي
Digital losses continue narrowing as advertising scale expands across connected television platforms despite inventory competition.
لماذا يهم
Reveals whether digital advertising scale can reach self-sustaining operating profitability, eliminating digital drag and expanding consolidated operating margins.
03
المقياس:
Midterm election political advertising revenues
الحاليEarly off-cycle indicators and management guidance point to record midterm cycle revenue surpassing prior midterm benchmarks.
لماذا يهم
Determines whether high-margin biennial political ad spending achieves projected records, providing surplus operating cash flow to support discretionary capital returns.
04
المقياس:
Discretionary share repurchase pacing and capital return
الحاليManagement has confirmed buyback continuation through pending strategic transactions while maintaining balance sheet liquidity.
الحاليLeverage is expected to increase following planned strategic transaction closing, requiring monitoring of debt service against operating cash generation.
لماذا يهم
Dictates balance sheet flexibility and borrowing costs, ensuring debt service does not constrain capital return commitments.
Digital net investment declined from under $300M in FY2025 to under $200M in FY2026 as Tubi expanded revenue by 35%.
Tubi's inflection toward operating breakeven directly adds to consolidated operating income ($3,345M in FY2026).
Television live sports and political ad windfalls buffer linear cable subscriber erosion.
Television generated $9,666M in FY2026 and management projects record midterm political ad revenues, counterbalancing Cable Network Programming cord-cutting.
Revenue stability allows predictable debt servicing on $7,568M in total debt and ongoing capital return.
الهامش
FOXA
Fox Corporation Class A
$26.7B
11.1x
1.6x
7.6x
14.3%
—
LYV
Live Nation Entertainment Inc.
$39.8B
87.5x
1.5x
27.9x
17.7%
6.7%
FOX
Fox Corporation Class B
$23.9B
9.9x
1.4x
7.0x
14.3%
25.2%
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
$279.2B
17.6x
5.8x
19.5x
49.5%
33.4%
NWS
News Corp Class B
$17.3B
21.2x
1.9x
13.9x
8.0%
12.5%
Value concentration in live unscripted sports and news programming
positive
Live sports rights (NFL through 2029) and must-have live news command durable appointment viewing, securing premium upfront advertiser pricing and political advertising records.
