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IBM trades against a final fair-value range of $239.16-$326.13, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $239, high $326, with mid-point at $283.
Stock analysis

IBM fair value $239–$326

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-08التحديث التالي: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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السعر
$229.76
▲ +52.74 (+22.95%)
القيمة العادلة
$283
$239–$326
التصنيف
شراء
confidence 88/100
إمكانية الصعود
+22.9%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$240.13
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$215.9B
P/E fwd 17.1
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $283 with high case $326.
  • Implied upside of 22.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$283
Margin of safety
+18.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$229.76Price
Low $239.16
Mid $282.5
High $326.13

IBM trades against a final fair-value range of $239.16-$326.13, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for legacy
    High switching costs for legacy enterprise infrastructure
  • Mission-critical hybrid cloud deployments via
    Mission-critical hybrid cloud deployments via Red Hat
  • Cycle upside
    Enterprise AI integration accelerates hybrid cloud deployments, structurally lifting software margin profiles industry-wide.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

A prolonged slowdown in enterprise IT spending heavily impacts the consulting segment, while legacy infrastructure declines offset software gains, pressuring free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. and the dividend payout.

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Hyperscaler Compression

20%· Medium

Cloud providers aggressively price hybrid solutions, eroding IBM's software operating margin expansion.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
12-24 months

Consulting Collapse

25%· Medium

Enterprise IT spending freezes, cratering consulting segment bookings and creating cash flow gaps.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
6-12 months

Gen AI Disruption

15%· Low

Watsonx fails to gain enterprise traction against Microsoft and AWS, rendering IBM a legacy vendor.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
24-36 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Consulting book-to-bill ratio falls consistently below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Red Hat revenue growth decelerates to single digits.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Software segment operating margins contract sequentially.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Annual free cash flow dips below the $10B threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Total debt reduction stalls, limiting dividend coverage.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
الإيرادات$57.35B$60.53B$61.86B$62.75B$67.54B+4.2%
إجمالي الربح$31.49B$32.69B$34.30B$35.55B$39.30B+5.7%
الدخل التشغيلي$6.87B$8.17B$9.38B$10.07B$12.49B+16.1%
صافي الدخل$5.74B$1.64B$7.50B$6.02B$10.59B+16.5%
EPS (مخفف)—$1.80$8.14$6.43$11.17+57.8%
EBITDA$12.41B$7.17B$14.69B$12.18B$17.28B+8.6%
البحث والتطوير$6.49B$6.57B$6.78B$7.48B$8.32B+6.4%
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$18.75B$18.61B$19.00B$17.91B$18.14B-0.8%

درجات الجودة

درجة Piotroski F
7 / 9
مركب جودة 0–9
درجة Altman Z
3.38
مخاطر الإفلاس (>3 آمن)
درجة Beneish M
-2.8
مخاطر التلاعب بالأرباح
OCF / صافي الدخل
1.25×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Pass
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
6.9%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

التدفق النقدي

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

IBM margins questions

  1. IBM (IBM)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

IBM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, IBM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $230 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $283 (range $239–$326), which implies roughly 22.9% upside to the midpoint.

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