بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
JBHT — frequently asked questions
Is J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-07, JBHT looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 224 USD versus our fair value of 125 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 154 USD. That implies roughly 44.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, gives JBHT a fair value of 125 USD and a potential value of 154 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy JBHT now?
Our latest published rating for JBHT, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Sell. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 224 USD versus fair value of 125 USD; potential value is 154 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for JBHT?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-07 documents J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is JBHT's rating?
Our latest published rating for JBHT, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 125 USD, the potential value of 154 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (224 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةSell
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$223.75
Fair value
$124.63
Potential value
$154.36
As of
2026-10-07
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Accelerating intermodal conversion and freight market tightening driving mini-bids and peak surcharges,, enabling rapid absorption of pre-funded container capacity without incremental tractor capex, expanding consolidated operating margin toward 9.0% and lifting FY2027 diluted EPS toward the upper consensus estimate of $11.00.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Consolidated operating margin falling below 6.0% (vs FY2025 of 7.21%) within the next 12 months.
Sell. J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. While the enterprise maintains a narrow economic moat rooted in intermodal scale and dedicated customer stickiness,, the stock's 79.53% market premium over fair value reflects an aggressive multi-year cyclical recovery that leaves no margin of safety against transcontinental pricing softness and railroad cost inflation,.2,4,5,8
Valuation disconnect and downside risks take precedence. J.B. Hunt trades at $223.75 per share, reflecting a forward P/E of 23.87x, well above peer logistics provider C.H. Robinson Worldwide at 17.91x and Copart at 15.32x. Market pricing implies an aggressive 17.29% 10-year earnings growth rate, surpassing our base-case projection of 15.62% and consensus expectations.2,3,4
Operational evidence indicates that while volume recovery is underway, pricing leverage remains constrained. In Q2 2026, management acknowledged unexpected pricing softness in transcontinental intermodal corridors, while rail partners and driver labor exert persistent cost inflation. Consolidated operating margin was 7.21% in FY2025 on $11,999M of revenue and $865.07M of operating income,. Furthermore, the Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) brokerage segment incurred an operating loss of -$10.0M on $1,109M of revenue in FY2025,, illustrating intense margin pressure across transactional freight brokerage.4,5,7,8
Offsetting these cyclical margin headwinds are J.B. Hunt's structural narrow-moat advantages, evidenced by an enterprise ROIC of 12.39% that exceeds its 10.25% WACC. The flagship Intermodal (JBI) segment delivered $5,975M in FY2025 revenue (49.8% of consolidated revenue) and $450.0M in operating income,. JBI benefits from proprietary container fleets, high-density rail partnerships, and insourced company drayage drivers,. Concurrently, Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) anchors enterprise profitability, generating $3,376M in revenue and $377.0M in operating income (11.17% operating margin) in FY2025 under long-term index-linked contracts with high customer retention,,.2,5,8
Capital intensity has normalized following prior container expansion, with FY2025 capital expenditures declining to $730.69M and free cash flow expanding to $947.59M. Funded container capacity enables volume growth without immediate equipment additions,. However, customer concentration remains a factor to monitor, as top 10 customers account for 33% of revenue and the largest customer generates 8% across all operating segments. Because current market pricing leaves no margin of safety against potential execution headwinds, we maintain a Sell rating.5,6,7,8
Premier Intermodal Scale and Rail Integration
JBI accounts for 49.8% of consolidated revenue ($5,975M in FY2025) and benefits from pre-funded container equipment and company drayage, allowing operating leverage to expand as load volume grows without heavy near-term capex,,.5,8
Resilient Dedicated Contract Profitability
DCS generated $377M in operating income on $3,376M revenue in FY2025 (11.17% margin) under long-term contracts with index-linked fuel surcharges, buffering corporate cash generation through freight cycles,,.5,8
Capital expenditures moderated to $730.69M in FY2025, enabling free cash flow of $947.59M and supporting dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases,,.5,6,7
توصية الدار
Sell. The current 23.87x forward P/E multiple prices in an idealized margin recovery to 8.48% while ignoring ongoing transcontinental rate competition and rail partner cost inflation,.4,5
نظرة عامة على الشركة
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. is a North American surface transportation and logistics company providing intermodal transport, dedicated contract carriage, freight brokerage, final mile delivery, and truckload services across five operating segments: Intermodal (JBI), Dedicated Contract Services (DCS), Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS), Final Mile Services (FMS), and Truckload (JBT),.
In FY2025, consolidated revenue was $11,999M, led by JBI ($5,975M; 49.8% of consolidated revenue) and DCS ($3,376M; 28.1% of consolidated revenue), which together generate over 95% of consolidated operating income,,. The company operates a differentiated model combining company-owned container fleets and drayage with Class I railroad partnerships, serving major enterprise retail and industrial shippers,.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
Under a severe macro stress test combining a 300 bps operating margin contraction with an extended freight recession, consolidated operating profit contracts sharply from FY2025 levels of $865.07M. Transcontinental intermodal yields compress under persistent over-the-road trucking supply overhang, while Class I rail partners and unionized driver labor escalate linehaul costs. In this environment, pre-funded container assets sit idle without generating operating leverage, while DCS contracts face customer re-negotiation pressures. Operating cash flows fall from $1,678.27M toward maintenance capital needs ($730.69M capex in FY2025), severely impairing cash conversion (converting net operating profit into free cash flow after capex) and driving intrinsic value toward standalone bear scenario pricing.
Consolidated operating margin compressing below 6.0% signals that transcontinental freight pricing softness and Class I rail cost inflation are overwhelming volume recovery, disconfirming operating leverage assumptions,.
الحالي:7.21% (FY2025),
تنبيه إذا< 6.0%
02
§3 الميزة التنافسيةEN
Narrow
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. possesses a narrow economic moat rooted in the structural scale advantages of its Intermodal (JBI) franchise and the high switching costs characterizing its Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) segment,. JBI accounts for approximately half of consolidated revenue ($5,975M in FY2025) and functions as the primary intermodal partner across major Class I railroads,. By pairing proprietary container capacity with insourced company drayage, JBI achieves network density and equipment turn efficiency that allow it to underprice long-haul over-the-road trucking while preserving profitable unit economics,.
The moat is reinforced by DCS, which generated $3,376M in revenue and $377M in operating income in FY2025, maintaining an operating margin of 11.17%. DCS operates under multi-year contracts with specialized fleet configurations, tailored routing technology, and index-linked fuel surcharges, creating substantial operational inertia and steep switching costs for shippers,. This contract structure reliably insulates consolidated operating earnings from spot freight volatility, contrasting sharply with asset-light brokerage models such as peer CHRW, whose operating margins sit lower at 5.34%.
However, the economic moat is bounded at narrow rather than wide due to transactional commodity exposure in the Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) brokerage segment, which posted an operating loss of -$10M on $1,109M of revenue in FY2025,. Furthermore, unexpected pricing softness in transcontinental intermodal lanes and cost inflation from railroad partners and driver labor demonstrate that J.B. Hunt cannot fully escape freight cycle dynamics or unilateral rail cost escalation, supporting a stable 10-year competitive advantage horizon.
الربح الاقتصادي
JBHT generates an ROIC of 12.39% compared to its computed WACC of 10.25% and moderate cost of equity of 10.64%. The resulting positive economic spread of 214 bps confirms economic value creation even near cyclical trough operating margins (7.21% in FY2025), backed by $1,678.27M in operating cash flow and $947.59M in free cash flow,.2,6,7
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Scale Advantage and Intermodal Network Density — JBI generated $5,975M in revenue (49.8% of consolidated total of $11,999M) and $450M in operating income in FY2025,,. J.B. Hunt maintains long-term Class I rail linehaul agreements and an extensive pre-funded 53-foot container fleet, providing unit cost efficiencies that sub-scale peers cannot replicate,.Wide
02High Switching Costs in Dedicated Contract Services — DCS delivered $3,376M in revenue (28.1% of consolidated) and $377M in in FY2025 (11.17% margin),. Multi-year contractual agreements, dedicated on-site logistics management, customized equipment, and contractual fuel surcharge pass-through mechanisms create substantial client switching costs and renewal rates above 95%,.
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Transcontinental intermodal pricing softness and rail partner cost escalation
high
12-18 months
Utilizing out-of-cycle mini-bids, selective freight pricing, insourced drayage cost optimization, and leveraging pre-funded container capacity to dilute fixed costs,,.5
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
124.15 US$
124.40 US$
124.63 US$
124.84 US$
125.13 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 5 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($124.63). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $596.7M after modeled reinvestment of $198.9M, with terminal value at 73.1% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Revenue growth recovers at 14.09% in FY2026 and moderates to 4.0% by FY2030.4
Operating margin improves from 7.65% in FY2026 to normalized 8.48% by FY2030.7
Diluted EPS tracks consensus targets of $7.29 in FY2026 and $9.99 in FY2027,.1
In the base scenario, freight volumes experience a gradual cyclical recovery, enabling JBI to deploy excess container capacity without heavy capital additions. Consolidated operating margins expand from 7.21% in FY2025 to normalized mid-cycle levels of 8.48% by FY2030, anchored by resilient 11.17% margins in DCS. Free cash flow conversion remains healthy as reinvestment settles between 20% and 28% of NOPAT.5,6,7,8
An earnings beat would demonstrate successful volume scaling over pre-funded containers, but does not close the 79.5% valuation premium relative to our synthesized fair value of $124.63,.
متوافق
Maintain Sell; Continue orderly reduction or full exit of positions; verify DCS customer retention and monitor transcontinental price negotiations.
المُحفِّز: Quarterly diluted EPS matching consensus expectations with stable consolidated operating margins reflecting steady freight volumes and balanced cost recovery.
Inline results confirm that freight recovery is proceeding at an expected modest pace, leaving shares trading at an unsustainable multiple relative to normalized earnings power.
دون التوقعات
Maintain Sell; Accelerate full liquidation of remaining exposure; audit early warning thresholds across dedicated contract margins.
المُحفِّز: Quarterly diluted EPS falling short of consensus expectations or consolidated operating margins contracting under railroad linehaul inflation and transcontinental rate pressure.
An earnings miss validates downside risks, confirming that transcontinental pricing weakness and rail partner cost inflation are overwhelming volume gains.
جودة الأرباح
Earnings quality is high and underpinned by clean cash generation with negligible accounting distortion. In FY2025, operating cash flow of $1,678.27M covered reported GAAP net income of $598.28M by 2.81x,. Depreciation and amortization of $714.79M was well aligned with capital expenditures of $730.69M. Effective tax rates remain steady at 23.75%, closely matching management guidance expectations of 24.0% to 24.5%.2,7
زخم التقديرات
Consensus estimate momentum has turned downward over the past 30 days. Full-year FY2026 diluted EPS estimates were trimmed 6.86% from $7.82 to $7.29, while fourth-quarter 2026 EPS consensus was cut by 6.10% over 7 days and 10.08% over 30 days, dropping from $2.30 to $2.07. These downward revisions reflect persistent transcontinental pricing headwinds and sticky railroad linehaul cost inflation,.1,5
الحاليSegment operating margin was 7.53% in FY2025 ($450M operating income on $5,975M revenue),; cost-to-serve initiatives delivered progress, but transcontinental pricing remains muted,.
لماذا يهم
JBI generates 49.8% of consolidated revenue ($5,975M of $11,999M in FY2025); across its container fleet is the primary driver of earnings recovery.
Cash flow generation remains exceptionally resilient despite cyclical earnings compression. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1,678.27M, converting GAAP net income of $598.28M at an operating cash flow-to-net income ratio of 2.81x. Free cash flow came in at $947.59M, demonstrating strong liquidity as working capital remained controlled and replacement capex was fully funded. Normalized forecast schedules model reinvestment rates between 20% and 28% of NOPAT, sustaining free cash flow above $800M annually.6,7
تخصيص رأس المال
Capital allocation has turned disciplined following significant prior cycle box additions. FY2025 dropped to $730.69M, essentially matching depreciation of $714.79M (/D&A of 1.02). With container capacity already pre-funded, management prioritizes balance sheet strength ($1,403.34M total debt against $21,010.12M market capitalization, yielding a conservative 6.26% debt weight,,), supporting steady dividend growth ($1.80 annualized) and opportunistic share repurchases.
The positive economic spread indicates that J.B. Hunt's asset-advantaged intermodal and dedicated contracts safeguard return on capital even during freight downcycles. As load volumes recover across pre-funded containers without requiring major capital expansion, ROIC is projected to expand toward mid-teens levels as operating margins normalize toward 8.48%.
JBHT's ROIC of 12.39% compares favorably to its computed WACC of 10.25% and moderate cost of equity of 10.64%, producing a positive spread of 2.14 percentage points during a cyclical trough year.
Intermodal and Dedicated segments generate the vast majority of operating profit while brokerage remains an earnings drag
In FY2025, JBI delivered $450M in operating income and DCS generated $377M, while ICS incurred an operating loss of -$10M,,.
Enterprise profitability is anchored by contracted dedicated services and intermodal rail economics, insulating corporate earnings from spot freight volatility but heavily tying results to rail operational recovery.
أحدث إيرادات12 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +6.9%
هامش التشغيل7.2%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر947.6 مليون US$FY2025
صافي الدين1.9 مليار US$FY2025
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات12 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−10.4 مليار US$إجمالي الربح1.6 مليار US$المصروفات التشغيلية−731.6 مليون US$الدخل التشغيلي865.1 مليون US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−266.8 مليون US$صافي الدخل598.3 مليون US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
11,999,096,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
10,402,472,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
1,596,624,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
731,555,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
865,069,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-266,787,000 US$
صافي الدخل
598,282,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول7.9 مليار US$النقد17.3 مليون US$الأصول المتداولة1.6 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات4.4 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة1.9 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين3.6 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
7,927,155,000 US$
النقد
17,284,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
1,604,190,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
4,362,070,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
1,935,343,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
3,565,085,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل598.3 مليون US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+714.8 مليون US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+71.8 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى+293.5 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي1.7 مليار US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة47 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+1.7 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−574.8 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي−1.1 مليار US$النقد في نهاية الفترة17.3 مليون US$
1.7 مليار US$ − 730.7 مليون US$التدفق النقدي الحر 947.6 مليون US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
598,282,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
1,678,272,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
714,785,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
71,753,000 US$
تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى
293,452,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
1,678,272,000 US$
النقد المتاح
1,725,255,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
46,983,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
574,774,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الخارج
1,133,197,000 US$
إعادة شراء الأسهم
923,292,000 US$
أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة
171,048,000 US$
صافي سداد الدين
13,742,000 US$
أنشطة تمويلية أخرى
25,115,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
17,284,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-574,774,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
-1,133,197,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2025-12-31.
12 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيليالحصة
JBI6 مليار US$49.8%+0.3% على أساس سنوي
DCS3.4 مليار US$28.1%−0.6% على أساس سنوي
ICS1.1 مليار US$9.2%−2.8% على أساس سنوي
FMS824 مليون US$6.9%−9.5% على أساس سنوي
JBT734 مليون US$6.1%+4.6% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
JBI
6 مليار US$
49.8%
0.3%
DCS
3.4 مليار US$
28.1%
-0.6%
ICS
1.1 مليار US$
9.2%
-2.8%
FMS
824 مليون US$
6.9%
-9.5%
JBT
734 مليون US$
6.1%
4.6%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT) trades at 23.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.5x compares with a peer median of 15.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc., Generac Holdings Inc., Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. and Copart Inc., as of 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-07.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Trough
JBHT capital expenditures declined to $730.69M in FY2025 from elevated prior levels, bringing the ratio of capex to depreciation to 1.02 ($730.69M capex vs $714.79M D&A). Consolidated operating margin of 7.21% in FY2025 sits well below historical cycle peaks (11.0% in 2016 and 8.99% in 2022), while marginal carrier capacity continues to exit the over-the-road trucking industry.5,7
دورة صعودية
In a freight upcycle, highway capacity tightening triggers shipper mini-bids and peak surcharges,. JBI rapidly absorbs incremental volumes into its pre-funded container fleet, expanding consolidated operating margins toward 9.0% and driving diluted EPS toward the top of consensus expectations ($11.00 in FY2027).
دورة هبوطية
In a prolonged freight downcycle, excess truckload carrier capacity depresses spot freight rates. Railroad partners and unionized driver labor escalate linehaul costs, holding consolidated operating margins near 6.5%, prolonging brokerage losses in ICS, and driving diluted EPS down toward consensus lows ($7.10 in FY2026 and $9.00 in FY2027),.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Highway-to-Rail Intermodal Conversion
positive
Shippers increasingly convert long-haul freight from truckload to intermodal rail to reduce transportation costs and lower supply chain carbon emissions.
Dedicated Logistics Outsourcing
positive
Rising driver labor costs, insurance expenses, and compliance requirements lead private corporate fleets to outsource transportation to dedicated contract providers,.
Digital Freight Brokerage Spread Compression
التموضع
J.B. Hunt is positioned as an asset-advantaged surface transportation compounder with structural cash flow stability. Dedicated Contract Services ($3,376M revenue, $377M operating income in FY2025) provides long-term baseline profitability,, while JBI ($5,975M revenue, $450M operating income) serves as the high-volume engine positioned to capture highway-to-rail conversion as freight demand accelerates,.8
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
0%
Under our Sell rating, no capital allocation is warranted. Current market valuation of $223.75 reflects a 79.5% premium to our synthesized fair value of $124.63, offering an unfavorable risk-reward profile.4
المخاطر
Capital preservation is paramount given that the stock trades at $223.75, reflecting a 23.87x forward P/E that significantly exceeds transportation peers (CHRW at 17.91x, CPRT at 15.32x). Holding equity positions at peak-cycle valuation multiples during an uncertain freight recovery exposes investors to severe valuation de-rating risk without adequate margin of safety.
Existing dividend holders benefit from a safe payout supported by $947.59M in FY2025 free cash flow, but incremental capital allocation should be avoided given severe capital loss risk.6
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
بيع
J.B. Hunt is rated Sell. Priced at $223.75, the stock trades at a 79.53% premium to our synthesized fair value midpoint of $124.63 (implied return of -44.30%). Although the company possesses structural narrow-moat advantages in intermodal and dedicated fleets,, current market pricing embeds an aggressive cyclical recovery at 23.87x forward P/E against peer median levels (CHRW at 17.91x).3,4,5,8
Investors should reduce exposure or divest positions into cyclical price strength. With DCFintrinsic value indicating $90.31 at a 10.25% WACC and forward earnings indicating $144.89, the risk-reward skew is strongly asymmetric to the downside.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
In the downside scenario, transcontinental intermodal pricing remains suppressed due to persistent over-the-road truckload capacity overhang, while railroad partner cost inflation and driver wage increases outpace rate adjustments. ICS brokerage losses persist, and potential volume defection from top accounts holds operating margins near trough levels around 6.5%, depressing diluted EPS down toward consensus lows,,.
Enterprise customer contract defection and retail logistics in-sourcing
The single largest customer revenue share fell from 13% in 2023 to 11% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, with the top 10 representing 33% of revenue. Severe defection across dedicated and intermodal contracts would drag revenue growth below 4.0%, disproving consensus recovery expectations of 14.41%.8
FV impact
-7.1%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 18 months
Valuation multiple de-rating toward freight brokerage and transportation peer median
JBHT trades at 23.87x forward P/E against logistics peer CHRW at 17.91x and CPRT at 15.32x. A 20% compression of the 18.0x terminal P/E toward 14.4x severely penalizes terminal capitalization in forward earnings and synthesis.3,4
Further revenue share contraction from the largest account (which has declined from 13% in FY2023 to 11% in FY2024 and 8% in FY2025) would indicate freight in-sourcing or lost awards across all five operating divisions.
Valuation multiple compression toward transport peer medians (CHRW at 17.91x, CPRT at 15.32x) invalidates the premium multiple currently embedded in the $223.75 share price.
Persistent and widening operating losses in the Integrated Capacity Solutions brokerage segment confirm structural pressure from digital freight brokers and traditional asset-light peers,.
03Insourced Drayage Infrastructure and Fleet Control — J.B. Hunt operates company-owned drayage fleets and employs professional drivers directly, mitigating exposure to volatile spot drayage markets, driver shortages, and carrier selection liabilities that disrupt competitors,,.Moderate
Spot brokerage margin erosion from digital platforms and aggressive scale brokers
medium
Ongoing
Focusing ICS brokerage on contracted accounts, reducing low-margin transactional exposure, and deploying digital carrier matching to reduce manual cost-to-serve.5
Driver recruitment shortages and escalating driver wage inflation
medium
12-24 months
Offering predictable dedicated regional routes in DCS that return drivers home daily, accompanied by competitive pay structures and high fleet safety standards,.5
Key account contract defection or retail logistics in-sourcing
medium
18-36 months
Bundling services across JBI, DCS, FMS, ICS, and JBT to deepen workflow integration and raise customer switching hurdles,.8
51.9%
Method
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (29.65 US$) plus discounted terminal value (80.59 US$) minus signed per current share (19.93 US$) equals the 90.31 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Diluted EPS reaches the top of consensus expectations ($11.00 in FY2027).1
In the upside scenario, rapid freight market tightening accelerates customer mini-bids and peak surcharges, driving JBI intermodal yields higher and enabling swift absorption of excess container capacity,. Operating leverage expands consolidated operating margins toward 9.0%, matching prior cyclical peaks, while disciplined capex boosts free cash flow and drives diluted EPS toward the top end of consensus expectations ($11.00 in FY2027),.1,5,7
Cash conversion (converting net operating profit into free cash flow after capex) depends on keeping capex near replacement levels ($730.69M vs $714.79M D&A) while absorbing loads into pre-funded containers.5
الحاليTop 10 customer share moderated from 36% in FY2023 to 33% in FY2025, with the largest customer accounting for 8% across all five segments,.
لماذا يهم
High customer revenue and receivables concentration creates volume vulnerability; maintaining contract retention is essential to preserve network density and fleet utilization.
05
المقياس:
Brokerage Segment Turnaround (ICS)
الحاليICS recorded an operating loss of -$10M on $1,109M revenue in FY2025,, with management focusing on contract freight and cost controls.
لماذا يهم
Brokerage operations have created an earnings drag; returning ICS to positive margins is necessary for consolidated EBIT normalization.
Because container equipment was pre-funded in prior cycles, the company can scale volume into a demand rebound without near-term capital intensity spikes.
The largest customer's revenue share declined from 13% in FY2023 to 11% in FY2024 and 8% in FY2025, while top 10 customers represent 33% of revenue.
While single-account concentration is declining, top 10 accounts still represent 32% of trade receivables, requiring continued contract execution across multi-segment partnerships.
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.HII
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة377.71 US$Report-date price272.86 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةNarrow
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار67 / 100
Copart, Inc.CPRT
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة26.58 US$Report-date price27.22 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةWide
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار71 / 100
الهامش
JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.
$21.0B
23.9x
1.7x
13.5x
18.4%
—
CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.
$15.7B
17.9x
0.9x
18.9x
37.1%
5.3%
GNRC
Generac Holdings Inc.
$12.7B
16.7x
2.9x
21.7x
9.5%
17.9%
HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.
$10.5B
12.8x
0.8x
11.5x
13.0%
7.1%
CPRT
Copart Inc.
$24.8B
15.3x
5.3x
11.0x
16.2%
32.0%
negative
Digital freight matching algorithms and aggressive pricing competition from scale brokers compress transactional spreads in spot freight,.
< 8.5%
Re-assess dedicated moat strength and examine contract re-pricing headwinds.8
