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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
LULU — frequently asked questions
Is Lululemon Athletica Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-19, LULU looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 119 USD versus our fair value of 228 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 282 USD. That implies roughly 91.7% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-19, gives LULU a fair value of 228 USD and a potential value of 282 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy LULU now?
Our latest published rating for LULU, analyzed 2026-05-19, is Strong Buy. Lululemon Athletica Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 119 USD versus fair value of 228 USD; potential value is 282 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for LULU?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-19 documents Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is LULU's rating?
Our latest published rating for LULU, analyzed 2026-05-19, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 228 USD, the potential value of 282 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (119 USD).
Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization.
Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative in the current year—requires anchoring and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization.
Consumer demand for premium athleisure remains structurally robust, and international market penetration accelerates rapidly.
توصية الدار
Strong Buy, driven by the extreme dislocation between current implied expectations and the reality of a temporary earnings digestion phase.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. It offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. The company also provides fitness-inspired accessories. It sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
A severe recession combined with an accelerated shift in athleisure trends could force elevated markdowns, permanently impairing gross margins and compressing ROIC toward the cost of capital.
Increased competition and a highly promotional environment permanently decelerate top-line growth and compress valuation multiples to low-teens P/E levels.
Structural degradation in gross margin would demonstrate that brand pricing power is eroding against rising premium competitors, forcing aggressive markdown discounting and permanently damaging long-term unit economics.
الحالي:56.6% for the period ended 2026-01-31
تنبيه إذاDeclining below 50.0% over a 12-month period
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
§5 الحساسية
معدل الخصم
النمو النهائي
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
7.6%
$269.35
$295.81
$328.04
$368.14
$399.84
8.6%
$228.48
$247.24
$269.35
$295.81
$328.04
9.6%
$198.38
$212.37
$228.48
$247.24
$269.35
10.6%
$175.28
$186.12
$198.38
$212.37
$228.48
11.6%
$157.01
$165.64
$175.28
$186.12
$198.38
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
تغير المدة (سنوات)
Unavailable
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($228.48). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
FCF cliff sensitivity is not model-supported in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
متوافق
Hold
المُحفِّز: In-line results
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
دون التوقعات
Reassess
المُحفِّز: Downside surprise
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
جودة الأرباح
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
Warning level: Declining below 50.0% over a 12-month period. Structural degradation in gross margin would demonstrate that brand pricing power is eroding against rising premium competitors, forcing aggressive markdown discounting and permanently damaging long-term unit economics.
LULU trades at 9.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 26.5x; EV/EBITDA of 5.1x against a peer median of 20.6x; 6 peers.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Expansion
Normal capex phase with disciplined reinvestment, returning capital primarily through aggressive share repurchases.
دورة صعودية
Consumer demand for premium athleisure remains structurally robust, and international market penetration accelerates rapidly.
دورة هبوطية
A highly promotional retail environment erodes premium pricing power, and consumer wallet share shifts away from apparel.
التموضع
Normal capex phase with disciplined reinvestment, returning capital primarily through aggressive share repurchases.
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
Appropriate for a core allocation given the extreme dislocation between the 25.8% ROIC and the market's implied -4.5% perpetual growth rate.
المخاطر
Trim sizing if the multiple approaches the high-end calibrated 25x, or if gross margins structurally decay below 50% for three consecutive quarters.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
Current / pullbacks
Immediate entry at current levels ($119.22), dynamically accumulating below $150.
Immediate entry at current levels ($119.22), dynamically accumulating below $150.
شرائح الخروج
المستوى
إجراء
Thesis break
Trim sizing if the multiple approaches the high-end calibrated 25x, or if gross margins structurally decay below 50% for three consecutive quarters.
§12 وجهات نظر المستثمرينEN
Bull view
Buy
Strong Buy. The current valuation embeds unprecedented macro pessimism that wholly ignores the company's elite compounding history and highly resilient balance sheet.
Strong Buy. The current valuation embeds unprecedented macro pessimism that wholly ignores the company's elite compounding history and highly resilient balance sheet.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
China expansion falters due to geopolitical friction or domestic preference, permanently removing the primary long-term growth engine from the terminal valuation.
FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months
Macro Demand Shock
Low
Prolonged consumer discretionary weakness stalls the men's category growth and causes consecutive quarters of negative comparable store sales in North America.
A severe drop in sales momentum would suggest brand fatigue in core product categories, exacerbating inventory imbalances and requiring deep promotional clearances that compress overall retail earnings.
الحالي:4.9% for the period ended 2026-01-31
تنبيه إذاDecelerating below 2.0% over a 12-month period
Operating margin contraction would confirm that direct channel conversion softness and fixed retail store overhead are outpacing store productivity, eliminating the operating leverage underpinning premium valuation multiples.
الحالي:19.9% for the period ended 2026-01-31
تنبيه إذاCompressing below 16.0% over a 12-month period
Diminishing capital returns would indicate that store footprint additions and international retail expansions are generating lower economic yields, undermining management's reinvestment thesis and long-term moat durability.
الحالي:25.8% as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
تنبيه إذاDeclining below 18.0% over a 12-month period
Failure to convert net accounting income into operational cash would reflect severe working capital misallocations and inventory bloat, restricting capital availability for share buybacks and store growth.
الحالي:1.015 as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
تنبيه إذاFalling below 0.85x over a 12-month period
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Fashion and category substitution risk
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Warning level: Decelerating below 2.0% over a 12-month period. A severe drop in sales momentum would suggest brand fatigue in core product categories, exacerbating inventory imbalances and requiring deep promotional clearances that compress overall retail earnings.
Warning level: Compressing below 16.0% over a 12-month period. Operating margin contraction would confirm that direct channel conversion softness and fixed retail store overhead are outpacing store productivity, eliminating the operating leverage underpinning premium valuation multiples.
الحالي25.8% as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
لماذا يهم
Warning level: Declining below 18.0% over a 12-month period. Diminishing capital returns would indicate that store footprint additions and international retail expansions are generating lower economic yields, undermining management's reinvestment thesis and long-term moat durability.
الحالي1.015 as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
لماذا يهم
Warning level: Falling below 0.85x over a 12-month period. Failure to convert net accounting income into operational cash would reflect severe working capital misallocations and inventory bloat, restricting capital availability for share buybacks and store growth.
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