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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MAR — frequently asked questions
Is Marriott International, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, MAR looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 359 USD versus our fair value of 228 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 304 USD. That implies roughly 36.5% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives MAR a fair value of 228 USD and a potential value of 304 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Marriott International, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MAR now?
Our latest published rating for MAR, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Marriott International, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 359 USD versus fair value of 228 USD; potential value is 304 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MAR?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Marriott International, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MAR's rating?
Our latest published rating for MAR, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 228 USD, the potential value of 304 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (359 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةSell
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$358.69
Fair value
$227.84
Potential value
$303.69
As of
تاريخ السعر غير مسجل
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Bull: Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze: Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.
Marriott International operates an elite asset-light lodging franchise model, leveraging global scale and the Bonvoy loyalty network to generate high returns on invested capital and robust free cash flow. Despite executing highly accretive buybacks, the current market valuation aggressively overprices these fundamentals, completely ignoring downside lodging cycle risks.
Marriott International operates an elite asset-light lodging franchise model, leveraging global scale and the Bonvoy loyalty network to generate high returns on invested capital and robust free cash flow. Despite executing highly accretive buybacks, the current market valuation aggressively overprices these fundamentals, completely ignoring downside lodging cycle risks.
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
Global scale and brand portfolio
Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense .
Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.
توصية الدار
Sell. The $94.5B market capitalization leaves zero margin of safety, pricing in perpetual double-digit growth while ignoring cyclical travel risks.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, EDITION, Bvlgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, Autograph Collection, Renaissance Hotels, Le Méridien, Delta Hotels by Marriott, MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, Tribute Portfolio, Gaylord Hotels, Design Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, Courtyard by Marriott, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn by Marriott, SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton, TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Aloft Hotels, AC Hotels by Marriott, Moxy Hotels, Element Hotels, Protea Hotels by Marriott, citizen, City Express by Marriott, and Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand names, as well as operates residences, timeshares, and yachts. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
A severe macroeconomic contraction compresses RevPAR, while sustained high interest rates raise the cost of servicing $17B in debt, forcing a halt to share buybacks and destroying EPS growth momentum.
A prolonged macroeconomic slowdown stalls RevPAR growth, while structural heavy debt loads ($17B) and higher interest rates restrict share buybacks and compress equity valuations.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze
Medium
Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.
FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Underperforming top-line expansion indicates enterprise travel budget reductions and consumer lodging weakness, curbing base and incentive management fee income across franchised properties.
الحالي:Revenue growth was 4.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
تنبيه إذاFalls below 2.0% for two consecutive fiscal quarters
02
§3 الميزة التنافسيةEN
Wide
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.
Asset-light franchise model generating highly recurring fee streams.
الربح الاقتصادي
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers. — Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.Wide
02Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power. — Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.Wide
03Asset-light franchise model generating highly recurring fee streams. — Asset-light franchise model generating highly recurring fee streams.Wide
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
Consolidation of Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) compressing intermediary margins.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Institutionalization of alternative lodging supply (e.g., Airbnb) capturing broader demographics.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
§5 الحساسية
معدل الخصم
النمو النهائي
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
8.0%
$265.81
$289.98
$318.98
$354.42
$398.72
9.0%
$227.84
$245.37
$265.81
$289.98
$318.98
10.0%
$199.36
$212.65
$227.84
$245.37
$265.81
11.0%
$177.21
$187.63
$199.36
$212.65
$227.84
12.0%
$159.49
$167.88
$177.21
$187.63
$199.36
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
تغير المدة (سنوات)
Unavailable
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($227.84). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
متوافق
Hold
المُحفِّز: In-line results
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
دون التوقعات
Reassess
المُحفِّز: Downside surprise
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
جودة الأرباح
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
الحاليRevenue growth was 4.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
لماذا يهم
Warning level: Falls below 2.0% for two consecutive fiscal quarters. Underperforming top-line expansion indicates enterprise travel budget reductions and consumer lodging weakness, curbing base and incentive management fee income across franchised properties.
MAR trades at 27.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 26.4x; EV/EBITDA of 23.6x against a peer median of 18.5x; 6 peers.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Expansion
Operating in a normal asset-light phase. Property-level capital expenditures are borne by franchisees, while corporate free cash flow is almost entirely directed toward share repurchases.
دورة صعودية
Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.
دورة هبوطية
Macroeconomic tightening slashes discretionary consumer travel and corporate group bookings, directly impacting fee generation.
التموضع
Operating in a normal asset-light phase. Property-level capital expenditures are borne by franchisees, while corporate free cash flow is almost entirely directed toward share repurchases.
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
Avoid allocation. The massive 36% downside to the base case provides zero margin of safety for fundamental allocators.
المخاطر
Liquidate current holdings into market strength. The implied >15% perpetual growth rate represents extreme structural overvaluation.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
Current / pullbacks
Await a major cyclical washout or severe multiple compression closer to the $225 intrinsic level before contemplating initiation.
Await a major cyclical washout or severe multiple compression closer to the $225 intrinsic level before contemplating initiation.
شرائح الخروج
المستوى
إجراء
Thesis break
Liquidate current holdings into market strength. The implied >15% perpetual growth rate represents extreme structural overvaluation.
§12 وجهات نظر المستثمرينEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While Marriott operates an exceptional, moat-protected franchise model, the stock trades at a staggering premium to unlevered free cash flows. Sustained, flawless execution is entirely priced in, leaving investors vulnerable to cyclical mean reversion.
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
بيع
Sell. Unfavorable risk/reward asymmetry is driven by stretched multiples, cycle-peak assumptions, and a massive gap to intrinsic fundamental value.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
Elevated financial debt increases debt service burdens during high interest rate environments, restricting financial flexibility and forcing management to curtail shareholder capital returns.
الحالي:$17B total debt load against $4.80B EBITDA for the period ended 2025-12-31
تنبيه إذاExceeds 4.0x for two consecutive quarters
03
Share Repurchase Program Curtailment
Halting share repurchases eliminates a core pillar of per-share earnings growth, signaling cash flow diversion toward debt refinancing and removing critical valuation support.
الحالي:Active share repurchase program as of 2026-05-20
تنبيه إذاFormal board suspension or greater than 50.0% reduction in annual share repurchases
04
Global Room Pipeline Contraction
A shrinking room pipeline limits unit growth expansion and curbs long-term franchise royalty compounding, constraining future earnings potential independent of cyclical occupancy fluctuations.
الحالي:Active global room addition pipeline as of 2026-05-20
تنبيه إذاContracts by more than 5.0% year-over-year over any twelve-month period
05
Loyalty Program Active Member Engagement
Weakening loyalty participation shifts booking distribution toward high-cost online travel agencies, eroding owner operating margins and reducing the attractiveness of new franchise conversions.
الحالي:Active Bonvoy loyalty platform engagement as of 2026-05-20
تنبيه إذاSustains a 10.0% or greater year-over-year decline in active member direct bookings
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Prolonged corporate travel budget optimization structurally reducing group volume.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
How this lens was calculated
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Stable debt servicing costs.
Marriott maintains asset-light operating leverage and steady cash flows, but the current market valuation excessively pulls forward perpetual growth, necessitating a sharp multiple contraction to align with fundamentals.
الحالي$17B total debt load against $4.80B EBITDA for the period ended 2025-12-31
لماذا يهم
Warning level: Exceeds 4.0x for two consecutive quarters. Elevated financial debt increases debt service burdens during high interest rate environments, restricting financial flexibility and forcing management to curtail shareholder capital returns.
03
المقياس:
Share Repurchase Program Curtailment
الحاليActive share repurchase program as of 2026-05-20
لماذا يهم
Warning level: Formal board suspension or greater than 50.0% reduction in annual share repurchases. Halting share repurchases eliminates a core pillar of per-share earnings growth, signaling cash flow diversion toward debt refinancing and removing critical valuation support.
04
المقياس:
Global Room Pipeline Contraction
الحاليActive global room addition pipeline as of 2026-05-20
لماذا يهم
Warning level: Contracts by more than 5.0% year-over-year over any twelve-month period. A shrinking room pipeline limits unit growth expansion and curbs long-term franchise royalty compounding, constraining future earnings potential independent of cyclical occupancy fluctuations.
05
المقياس:
Loyalty Program Active Member Engagement
الحاليActive Bonvoy loyalty platform engagement as of 2026-05-20
لماذا يهم
Warning level: Sustains a 10.0% or greater year-over-year decline in active member direct bookings. Weakening loyalty participation shifts booking distribution toward high-cost online travel agencies, eroding owner operating margins and reducing the attractiveness of new franchise conversions.
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السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة24.84 US$Report-date price354.08 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةNone
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار49 / 100
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