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NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $52.9, high $87.7, with mid-point at $70.2.
Stock analysis

NDAQ fair value $53–$88

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-20التحديث التالي: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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السعر
$91.98
▼ -21.83 (-23.73%)
القيمة العادلة
$70
$53–$88
التصنيف
تخفيض
confidence 82/100
إمكانية الصعود
-23.7%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$59.63
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$52.0B
P/E fwd 20.8
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $88.
  • Implied downside of 23.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
-31.1%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.98Price
Low $52.90
Mid $70.15
High $87.67

NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network effects in core exchange
    Network effects in core exchange listings
  • High switching costs in data
    High switching costs in data and analytics software
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Severe IPO Drought

· Medium

A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Data Pricing Regulation

· Low

Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Listing Share Erosion

· Low

Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Sustained operating margin falling below 45% post-portfolio reshaping.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to achieve immediate +8.4% Year 2 revenue rebound.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major corporate listings to rival exchanges.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Decline in recurring revenue growth rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
الإيرادات—$6.23B$6.06B$7.40B$8.26B+7.3%
إجمالي الربح—$2.34B$2.55B$2.99B$3.49B+10.5%
الدخل التشغيلي—$1.66B$1.81B$1.95B$2.43B+10.0%
صافي الدخل—$1.13B$1.06B$1.12B$1.79B+12.3%
EPS (مخفف)$2.35$2.26$2.08$1.93$3.09+7.1%
EBITDA—$1.85B$2.00B$2.46B$3.13B+14.0%
البحث والتطوير——————
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية—$420.0M$417.0M$427.0M$424.0M+0.2%

درجات الجودة

OCF / صافي الدخل
1.26×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Fail
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
9.1%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

التدفق النقدي

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVENUE FAQ

NDAQ revenue questions

  1. NDAQ (NDAQ)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.

FAQ

NDAQ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $92.0 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.2 (range $52.9–$87.7), which implies roughly 23.7% downside to the midpoint.

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