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NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $61.8, high $149, with mid-point at $106.
Stock analysis

NOW fair value $62–$149

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-19التحديث التالي: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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السعر
$101.83
▲ +3.70 (+3.63%)
القيمة العادلة
$106
$62–$149
التصنيف
احتفاظ
confidence 82/100
إمكانية الصعود
+3.6%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$89.70
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$105.0B
P/E fwd 20.3
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $106 with high case $149.
  • Implied upside of 3.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$106
Margin of safety
+3.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$101.83Price
Low $61.76
Mid $105.53
High $148.71

NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Rapid generative AI workflow integration drives a new IT spending super-cycle, expanding ARPU.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

If forward revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. estimates drop below 15% without a commensurate drop in stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., the forward-earnings premium will collapse, exposing heavily burdened trailing cash realities.

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

IT Budget Contraction

30%· Medium

Macro IT budget optimization slows seat growth significantly across enterprise clients.

FV impact
Downside to $61.76 floor.
Trigger
12-18 months

AI Monetization Failure

20%· Medium

Generative AI products fail to offset core market saturation, compressing revenue growth below 15%.

FV impact
20% multiple compression.
Trigger
24 months

Margin Stagnation

25%· Medium

Stock-based compensation continues to exceed 14.7% of revenue, impairing true cash conversion and depressing institutional demand.

FV impact
15% downside.
Trigger
6-12 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Operating margin failing to expand toward 20% in the next 12-24 months.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward revenue growth estimates dropping below 15%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 16% of revenue amidst plateauing seat growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention dipping below 120% indicating stalled cross-selling.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow margins compressing below 30% due to aggressive capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
الإيرادات$7.25B$8.97B$10.98B$13.28B+22.4%
إجمالي الربح$5.67B$7.05B$8.70B$10.30B+22.0%
الدخل التشغيلي$355.0M$762.0M$1.36B$1.82B+72.6%
صافي الدخل$325.0M$1.73B$1.43B$1.75B+75.2%
EPS (مخفف)$0.32$1.68$1.37$1.67+73.5%
EBITDA$788.0M$1.32B$2.33B$3.02B+56.5%
البحث والتطوير$1.77B$2.12B$2.54B$2.96B+18.7%
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$3.55B$4.16B$4.79B$5.51B+15.8%

درجات الجودة

OCF / صافي الدخل
3.11×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Fail
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
11.7%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

التدفق النقدي

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

NOW scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for NOW (NOW) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.
FAQ

NOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $102 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $106 (range $61.8–$149), which implies roughly 3.6% upside to the midpoint.
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