NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $61.8, high $149, with mid-point at $106.
Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$106
Margin of safety
+3.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$101.83Price
Low $61.76
Mid $105.53
High $148.71
NOW trades against a final fair-value range of $61.76-$148.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Cycle upside
Rapid generative AI workflow integration drives a new IT spending super-cycle, expanding ARPU.
Each scenario for NOW (NOW) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.
Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.
Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.
When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.
FAQ
NOW — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, NOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $102 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $106 (range $61.8–$149), which implies roughly 3.6% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for NOW is $61.8–$149, with a midpoint of $106. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for NOW's archetype.
Our current rating for NOW is Hold with a confidence score of 82/100. NOW is rated Hold at $101.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $105.53, implying +3.63% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for NOW are: IT Budget Contraction; AI Monetization Failure; Margin Stagnation. The single biggest risk is The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Our current rating for NOW is Hold, issued with a confidence score of 82/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($61.8–$149) versus the current price of $102.
NOW is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for NOW.