تحليلات المنتج الاختيارية
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The most substantial opportunity is a sustained easing in 30-year mortgage interest rates that unfreezes regional housing transactions across the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast.
Mortgage interest rates remaining above 7% through 2027 coupled with macroeconomic slowing.
NVR Inc. is rated Hold. At the analysis price of USD 5,899.16 on October 9, 2026, the shares trade at a modest 5.60% discount to our Fair value of USD 6,249.35, offering 5.94% implied upside alongside Potential value of USD 7,491.93, balancing cyclical near-term delivery headwinds against exceptional returns on capital.4
We assign a Hold rating to NVR. For investors, a Hold rating indicates that while the company possesses elite operational quality and structural capital efficiency, the stock's valuation at analysis leaves insufficient margin of safety to initiate fresh long positions, making the shares best suited for continued holding by existing owners.
The analysis was prepared at a share price of USD 5,899.16 on October 9, 2026. Against our central estimate of Fair value at USD 6,249.35, the shares offer a modest 5.94% implied return (a 5.60% price discount). If housing delivery volumes re-accelerate and margins expand toward peak levels, reaches USD 7,491.93, representing 27.00% upside. At the report-date level, the market appropriately prices the company's structural advantages against near-term cyclical moderation.
The primary risk to our thesis is a prolonged housing affordability shock driven by elevated mortgage interest rates remaining above 7%. If sustained high borrowing costs erode consumer absorption, homebuilding order cancellations would rise, forcing NVR to expand mortgage rate buydowns and closing concessions. A drop in annual revenue growth below -15% or an operating margin decline below 13.0% would signal severe cyclical deterioration and undermine base-case valuation support.1
The core reason the business can outperform over the long term is its proprietary land-light lot optioning model. By contracting for finished lots just prior to construction rather than holding raw land, NVR avoids speculative inventory write-downs and requires negligible capital expenditures ($24.51M in FY2025). Virtually all operating cash flow converts into free cash flow, allowing continuous share cannibalization—reducing share count from 3,069,103 in FY2025 to 2,664,860 by October 2026 —which compounds earnings per share well beyond top-line revenue growth.467
NVR secures finished lots via option contracts with independent developers rather than owning raw land, eliminating balance sheet inventory write-downs and sustaining ROIC above 25% across cycles.45
With annual capex of only $24.51M, surplus free cash flow is channeled into aggressive share repurchases, reducing diluted shares by 13.17% between FY2025 and October 2026.46
A broad net cash surplus of $760.26M ensures complete financial independence and shields operations from debt refinancing stress during housing downturns.5
We rate NVR a Hold because its elite land-light optioning structure and powerful share buyback engine are fully balanced at current market levels against cyclical delivery contraction and persistent mortgage rate pressures.
NVR, Inc. is a major American homebuilder focused primarily on the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominiums. The company markets its homes under well-established regional brand names, serving customers across mature metropolitan markets in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Mid-East, and Southeast regions of the United States. Unlike traditional homebuilders that hold land inventories for years, NVR constructs residences predominantly on a pre-sold contract basis, matching production starts directly to customer orders.
To complement its core home construction operations, NVR provides comprehensive mortgage banking and title-related settlement services through its subsidiary, NVR Mortgage Finance (NVRM). NVRM originates residential mortgage loans exclusively for NVR's home buyers, capturing fee income, origination gains, and title fees before selling the closed loans into secondary markets on a servicing-released basis. Homebuilding represents the vast majority of consolidated operations, accounting for $10,094.27M or 97.78% of FY2025 revenues, while mortgage banking contributed $229.69M.
In a severe cyclical downturn characterized by mortgage borrowing rates remaining above 7.0% through 2027 and broader macroeconomic softness, homebuyer contract orders fall sharply. Under these conditions, NVR's FY2026 revenue contracts beyond consensus -10.54% to -18.0%, while financing buydowns and lot option fees compress operating margins from 16.19% in FY2025, reducing free cash flow toward historical trough levels of $362.10M observed in FY2016. Net income declines below $1.0B, forcing management to curtail share repurchases to protect liquidity, halting the per-share compounding mechanism and dropping fair value toward the downside boundary of $4,429.43.
The Bear case captures a scenario where mortgage interest rates remain elevated for an extended duration, severely constraining housing affordability. Single-family home contract orders contract significantly as buyer qualification hurdles persist, forcing NVR to offer aggressive mortgage rate buydowns and price concessions. Finished lot costs from developer partners increase, squeezing operating margins toward peer averages. While NVR avoids raw land write-downs due to its option model, lower net income reduces share buyback volume, slowing per-share accretion. Disconfirmation of this downside pathway would be indicated by resilient weekly order absorption rates and stable gross margins across sequential quarters.
Mortgage interest rates remaining above 7% through 2027 depress single-family home buyer demand, driving FY2026 revenue contraction beyond consensus -10.54% to worse than -15.0%. Cumulative 5-year revenue growth falls 5 percentage points below base forecast as cancellations rise and regional volume stagnates.1
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Delivery volume contraction exceeding -15.0% indicates systemic buyer cancellations and market share erosion rather than orderly cyclical moderation.
الحالي:-10.54% (FY2026 consensus estimate)
تنبيه إذاBelow -15.0% annual revenue contraction
NVR possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by a structural cost advantage and localized efficient scale. While homebuilding is fundamentally a cyclical, competitive commodity industry, NVR's operating architecture is uniquely differentiated from peers like D.R. Horton and Lennar. Rather than operating as a master land developer that acquires raw acreage, secures entitlements, and holds land on balance sheet across multi-year cycles, NVR acts strictly as an assembler and builder. It procures finished building lots from independent land developers just-in-time via rolling option purchase agreements.
This land-light strategy converts high fixed carrying costs, development debt, and inventory impairment risk into variable operating expenses. In FY2025, NVR generated an operating margin of 16.19% ($1,671.43M operating profit on $10,323.96M revenue), comfortably above D.R. Horton at 12.99%. Even during severe housing corrections, such as in FY2016 when free cash flow was $362.10M, NVR remained comfortably profitable and avoided catastrophic balance-sheet write-downs.
The durability of this advantage is reinforced by regional concentration across mature East Coast submarkets. Decades of reliable lot take-downs make NVR the preferred counterparty for third-party land developers, creating a symbiotic network that peers cannot easily replicate without dismantling their existing internal land-development organizations. As a result, NVR generates sustainable economic profits, with return on invested capital consistently exceeding 25% compared to its 8.69% cost of capital.
NVR consistently generates returns on invested capital well above its cost of capital. In FY2025, operating income of $1,671.43M on invested capital of $4,774.03M generated an ROIC exceeding 25%, substantially outpacing its computed weighted average cost of capital of 8.69%.245
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($6,249.35). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.0B after modeled reinvestment of $32.4M, with terminal value at 81.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base case projects that single-family housing demand stabilizes following near-term delivery volume moderation. NVR maintains its structural cost discipline through lot optioning, holding operating margins steady while modest top-line growth resumes across core East Coast submarkets. Systematic share repurchases continue to compound per-share earnings faster than revenue. Under these assumptions, the Base scenario targets $6,249.35, reflecting 5.9% return from $5,899.16 (as of 2026-10-09) with an assigned probability of 50.0%. This trajectory would be disconfirmed if mortgage financing buydowns severely compress operating margins or if order cancellation rates surge.
A decisive beat on order absorption and margin expansion would indicate that single-family demand is overcoming affordability hurdles and that NVR's lot option advantage is capturing outsized operational leverage.
Results matching the projected trajectory confirm that cyclical delivery moderation is progressing in an orderly manner while the share cannibalization engine continues to preserve per-share equity value.
A substantial operational miss driven by severe buyer demand deterioration and margin compression would indicate that the housing downturn is deepening, impairing near-term capital return capacity.
NVR maintains high-quality earnings characterized by excellent cash conversion and conservative accounting practices. Because the company builds primarily on a pre-sold basis and acquires lots via option agreements rather than holding speculative land inventories, reported GAAP earnings are virtually free from land impairment charges, capitalized interest distortions, or arbitrary inventory valuation adjustments. Operating cash flow reliably tracks net income over multi-year periods, and minimal capital expenditure requirements ensure that reported operating income translates directly into distributable free cash flow.
Consensus earnings revisions have exhibited modest downward drift following recent reporting periods, reflecting analyst adjustments for persistent borrowing cost headwinds and moderate delivery volume expectations. FY2027 diluted earnings per share projections were trimmed alongside modest reductions in forward revenue estimates, while near-term projections incorporate conservative expectations for housing affordability.
Measures underlying buyer demand across core submarkets; an acceleration signals housing cycle inflection, while sharp declines precede revenue contraction.
NVR exhibits exceptional cash flow conversion due to its land-light structure. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1,121.32M, which easily covered minimal capital spending of $24.51M to generate $1,096.81M in free cash flow. This represents an 81.9% conversion of GAAP net income ($1,339.82M). Historically, free cash flow remained consistently positive even during past cyclical troughs (e.g., $362.10M in FY2016), underscoring that NVR does not face cash flow burn during housing downcycles.56
Management's capital allocation philosophy is simple, rigorous, and shareholder-aligned. NVR pays no regular common dividend, engages in zero speculative land acquisition, and undertakes no dilutive corporate M&A. Instead, capital allocation is concentrated almost entirely on share repurchases funded from operating cash flow and balance sheet liquidity. In FY2025, repurchases exceeded annual , gently drawing down cash balances from $2,664.67M in FY2024 to $1,956.88M while maintaining a healthy broad surplus of $760.26M. This disciplined cannibalization of the equity base has reduced from over 3.07M to 2.66M.
NVR generates extraordinary returns on capital that remain insulated from cyclical troughs. In FY2025, operating income of $1,671.43M on invested capital of $4,774.03M delivered an ROIC exceeding 25%. Because NVR holds no land development debt and requires virtually zero maintenance capex, invested capital turns rapidly, maintaining ROIC well above 20% even across cyclical downswings.
NVR's return on invested capital of >25% outpaces its computed WACC of 8.69% by over 1,600 basis points, demonstrating elite economic value generation.
In FY2025, capex was just $24.51M (0.24% of $10,323.96M revenue), converting $1,339.82M in GAAP into $1,096.81M of .
| الإيرادات | 10,323,959,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| تكلفة الإيرادات | 7,953,401,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الربح | 2,370,558,000 US$ |
| المصروفات التشغيلية | 699,126,000 US$ |
| الدخل التشغيلي | 1,671,432,000 US$ |
| البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب | -331,616,000 US$ |
| صافي الدخل | 1,339,816,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الأصول | 5,856,930,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| النقد | 1,956,881,000 US$ |
| الأصول المتداولة | 3,713,183,000 US$ |
| إجمالي الالتزامات | 1,992,061,000 US$ |
| الالتزامات المتداولة | 939,168,000 US$ |
| حقوق المساهمين | 3,864,869,000 US$ |
| صافي الدخل | 1,339,816,000 US$ |
|---|---|
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل | 1,433,539,000 US$ |
| الإهلاك والإطفاء | 24,510,000 US$ |
| التعويض القائم على الأسهم | 69,213,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي | 1,121,320,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج | 312,219,000 US$ |
| النقد المتاح | 3,785,987,000 US$ |
| النقد في بداية الفترة | 2,664,667,000 US$ |
| التدفق الاستثماري الخارج | 71,208,000 US$ |
| النفقات الرأسمالية | 24,508,000 US$ |
| أنشطة استثمارية أخرى | 46,700,000 US$ |
| التدفق التمويلي الخارج | 1,757,898,000 US$ |
| النقد في نهاية الفترة | 1,956,881,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي الاستثماري | -71,208,000 US$ |
| التدفق النقدي التمويلي | -1,757,898,000 US$ |
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| الإيرادات حسب القطاع التشغيلي | الإيرادات | الحصة | على أساس سنوي |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Building | 10.1 مليار US$ | 97.8% | -1.9% |
| Mortgage Banking | 229.7 مليون US$ | 2.2% | -1% |
البيانات المالية في نقطة زمنية المستخدمة في تحليل 2026-10-11.
| الفترة | الإيرادات | EBITDA | صافي الدخل | التدفق النقدي التشغيلي | التدفق النقدي الحر | النفقات الرأسمالية | الإهلاك والإطفاء | التعويض القائم على الأسهم | إعادة شراء الأسهم | أرباح الأسهم المدفوعة | صافي إصدار الدين | التدفق النقدي الاستثماري | التدفق النقدي التمويلي | النقد في بداية الفترة | النقد في نهاية الفترة | النقد والاستثمارات | إجمالي الديون | الهامش التشغيلي | ROIC | WACC | فارق ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 5.8 مليار US$ | 704.6 مليون US$ | 425.3 مليون US$ | 384.5 مليون US$ | 362.1 مليون US$ | 22.4 مليون US$ | 22.3 مليون US$ | 43.6 مليون US$ | 455.4 مليون US$ | 150 مليون US$ | — | -9.4 مليون US$ | -403.7 مليون US$ | — | 416 مليون US$ | 435.5 مليون US$ | 596.5 مليون US$ | 10.7% | — | 4.8% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 6.3 مليار US$ | 892.6 مليون US$ | 537.5 مليون US$ | 570.4 مليون US$ | 550.1 مليون US$ | 20.3 مليون US$ | 22.7 مليون US$ | 44.6 مليون US$ | 422.2 مليون US$ | 0 US$ | — | -15.2 مليون US$ | -281.6 مليون US$ | 416 مليون US$ | 689.6 مليون US$ | 711.3 مليون US$ | 597.1 مليون US$ | 12.7% | — | 5.0% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 7.2 مليار US$ | 1 مليار US$ | 797.2 مليون US$ | 723.1 مليون US$ | 703.5 مليون US$ | 19.7 مليون US$ | 20.2 مليون US$ | 75.7 مليون US$ | 846.1 مليون US$ | 234 مليون US$ | — | -8.2 مليون US$ | -672.3 مليون US$ | 689.6 مليون US$ | 732.2 مليون US$ | 752.3 مليون US$ | 597.7 مليون US$ | 12.5% | — | 5.2% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 7.4 مليار US$ | 1.1 مليار US$ | 878.5 مليون US$ | 866.5 مليون US$ | 843.8 مليون US$ | 22.7 مليون US$ | 20.8 مليون US$ | 78.5 مليون US$ | 698.4 مليون US$ | 274 مليون US$ | — | -13.3 مليون US$ | -424.7 مليون US$ | 732.2 مليون US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 683.7 مليون US$ | 12.8% | — | 4.8% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 7.5 مليار US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 901.2 مليون US$ | 925.3 مليون US$ | 909.2 مليون US$ | 16.1 مليون US$ | 22 مليون US$ | 50.8 مليون US$ | 371.1 مليون US$ | 180.9 مليون US$ | — | -3.9 مليون US$ | 727.6 مليون US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 2.8 مليار US$ | 2.8 مليار US$ | 1.8 مليار US$ | 13.0% | — | 5.2% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 9 مليار US$ | 1.7 مليار US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 17.9 مليون US$ | 19.5 مليون US$ | 58.2 مليون US$ | 1.5 مليار US$ | 142.4 مليون US$ | — | -18.2 مليون US$ | -1.4 مليار US$ | 2.8 مليار US$ | 2.6 مليار US$ | 2.6 مليار US$ | 1.9 مليار US$ | 16.4% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 10.5 مليار US$ | 2.3 مليار US$ | 1.7 مليار US$ | 1.9 مليار US$ | 1.9 مليار US$ | 18.4 مليون US$ | 17.4 مليون US$ | 82.5 مليون US$ | 1.5 مليار US$ | 196.7 مليون US$ | -601.5 مليون US$ | -27.4 مليون US$ | -1.9 مليار US$ | 2.6 مليار US$ | 2.6 مليار US$ | 2.6 مليار US$ | 1 مليار US$ | 20.6% | — | 8.1% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 9.5 مليار US$ | 2 مليار US$ | 1.6 مليار US$ | 1.5 مليار US$ | 1.5 مليار US$ | 24.9 مليون US$ | 16.9 مليون US$ | 99.5 مليون US$ | 1.1 مليار US$ | 250.5 مليون US$ | -1.7 مليون US$ | -24.1 مليون US$ | -833 مليون US$ | 2.6 مليار US$ | 3.2 مليار US$ | 3.3 مليار US$ | 1 مليار US$ | 19.1% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 10.5 مليار US$ | 2.2 مليار US$ | 1.7 مليار US$ | 1.4 مليار US$ | 1.3 مليار US$ | 29.2 مليون US$ | 18.4 مليون US$ | 73.9 مليون US$ | 2.1 مليار US$ | — | -2.6 مليون US$ | -26.6 مليون US$ | -1.9 مليار US$ | 3.2 مليار US$ | 2.7 مليار US$ | 2.7 مليار US$ | 1 مليار US$ | 18.9% | — | 9.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 10.3 مليار US$ | 1.8 مليار US$ | 1.3 مليار US$ | 1.1 مليار US$ | 1.1 مليار US$ | 24.5 مليون US$ | 24.5 مليون US$ | 69.2 مليون US$ | 1.8 مليار US$ | — | -4.7 مليون US$ | -71.2 مليون US$ | -1.8 مليار US$ | 2.7 مليار US$ | 2 مليار US$ | 2 مليار US$ | 1.2 مليار US$ | 16.2% | — | 7.0% | — |
NVR Inc. (NVR) trades at 14.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 11.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 10.4x compares with a peer median of 9.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Lennar Corporation, PulteGroup Inc., D.R. Horton Inc. and Las Vegas Sands Corp., as of 2026-10-11.
The homebuilding sector operates in a cyclical contraction phase characterized by affordability headwinds, with industry capex-to-revenue at 0.70% and capex-to-depreciation at 0.89x. NVR's own minimal capex of $24.51M in FY2025 (0.24% of revenue) reflects total capital discipline, avoiding capital expenditure expansion while industry new orders experience pressure.6
In an expansionary housing cycle, lower mortgage borrowing costs and strong real wage growth stimulate first-time and move-up homebuyer demand. Deliveries accelerate across NVR's core Mid-Atlantic submarkets, driving operating leverage and pricing gains. Operating margins expand toward peak levels of 17.5% to 20.0%, while rapid cash collection expands free cash flow and fuels accelerated share repurchases.
In a contractionary or trough phase, mortgage interest rates staying above 7% restrict household purchasing power and elevate monthly debt-to-income hurdles. Housing transaction volumes decline sharply, driving revenue contractions like the -10.54% projected for FY2026 ($9,236.17M). Builders must provide costly mortgage financing buydowns and price concessions, which compress gross margins toward industry averages.
NVR is ideally positioned to navigate cyclical turbulence compared to peers like DHI and LEN due to its pre-sold construction methodology and zero raw land balance sheet exposure. While peers carry significant debt and land carrying overhead, NVR holds $760.26M in broad net cash, enabling it to walk away from unprofitable optioned lots with minimal deposit forfeiture if demand contracts.57
Under our Hold recommendation, NVR warrants a moderate conviction allocation of 3-4% for diversified equity portfolios. The business demonstrates elite return on invested capital (>25%) and pristine balance sheet strength ($760.26M broad net cash), but the current 5.60% price discount to Fair value ($6,249.35) does not offer sufficient margin of safety for an overweight stance.5
Investors should manage position risk by sizing NVR within prudent single-stock cyclical exposure limits (not exceeding 5% of total portfolio equity). Given the high nominal share price (~$5,900) and cyclical sensitivity to interest rate policy, stop-loss discipline and regular quarterly monitoring of contract order absorption and operating margin spreads over peers are essential.
NVR's pure land-light lot option framework, superior return on invested capital exceeding 25%, and continuous share count reduction justify maintaining long-term exposure, even as near-term cyclical growth moderates.45
With shares trading near Fair value and housing delivery volumes contracting (-10.54% in FY2026), tactical upside is limited until interest rate cuts or valuation multiple expansion provide a fresh catalyst.1
NVR pays no regular dividends and trades at 14.79x forward earnings, above peer multiples (PHM at 10.29x); conservative capital should wait for a wider margin of safety despite pristine balance sheet net cash of $760.26M.345
NVR is rated Hold. At the analysis price of USD 5,899.16, the stock trades at a 5.60% discount to our synthesized Fair value of USD 6,249.35, offering 5.94% implied return alongside Potential value of USD 7,491.93. While NVR's 100% land-light lot option model generates world-class ROIC (>25%) and enables relentless share cannibalization, near-term delivery volume contraction (-10.54% expected in FY2026) and elevated mortgage rates leave insufficient margin of safety to warrant fresh capital deployment.145
Existing long-term investors should maintain holdings to participate in continuous per-share compounding driven by low capital expenditure intensity ($24.51M in FY2025) and a debt-free operating profile ($760.26M net cash broad). Prospective investors should wait for cyclical weakness to provide an entry point below USD 5,500.
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Tighter banking regulations on land developers raise finished lot option acquisition costs, while elevated buyer resistance forces NVR to offer aggressive mortgage rate buydowns and closing concessions. Operating margin contracts 300 bps below the normalized 16.0% assumption down to 13.0%, matching peer levels (DHI at 12.99%).3
Persistent housing cycle headwinds and lower ROE cause investor sentiment to de-rate homebuilder valuations across the board. NVR's terminal P/E compresses by 20% from the assumed 13.5x to 10.8x, converging toward peer valuations (PHM at 10.29x forward P/E and DHI at 11.72x).3
An operating margin below 13.0% indicates that lot option acquisition premiums and mortgage financing buydowns have eliminated NVR's structural cost advantage over conventional builders.
الحالي:16.19% (FY2025 reported)
تنبيه إذاBelow 13.0% consolidated operating margin
Net share repurchases dropping below $500M indicates that operating cash flow has degraded severely, neutralizing the share cannibalization engine that compounds EPS.
الحالي:$1,096.81M free cash flow conversion (FY2025)
تنبيه إذاBelow $500M annual net repurchases
A decline in diluted EPS exceeding 25.0% reflects severe earnings deleverage and cancellation waves that threaten annual net income falling below $1.0B.
الحالي:-17.88% contraction to $358.51 (FY2026 consensus estimate)
تنبيه إذاContraction worse than -25.0%
Multiple de-rating below 10.8x indicates that market sentiment has stripped NVR of its premium valuation over capital-heavy peers such as PHM (10.29x) and DHI (11.72x).
الحالي:14.79x forward P/E (market trading)
تنبيه إذاBelow 10.8x terminal multiple
| Pre-sold production matching backlogged buyer contracts reduces speculative inventory liquidations, while captive mortgage banking operations (NVRM) offer targeted rate buydowns. |
Under the moderate discount rate, 1,386 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 5,310 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 6,696 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (1,654 US$) plus discounted terminal value (7,302 US$) minus signed per current share (-285.29 US$) equals the 9,240 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Use book value per share with normalized ROE, cost of equity, and terminal growth to derive a justified price-to-book value.
The Bull case envisions an accelerated easing of mortgage rates that revitalizes buyer purchasing power and unlocks strong pent-up housing demand. Delivery volumes rebound sharply across mature metropolitan markets, allowing NVR to realize operating leverage and expand operating margins toward previous cycle peaks. Robust free cash flow generation enables aggressive share repurchases, propelling per-share earnings growth into double digits. Under this path, the Bull scenario targets $7,491.93, yielding 27.0% return from $5,899.16 (as of 2026-10-09) with an assigned probability of 25.0%. Disconfirmation would occur if finished lot supply bottlenecks emerge or if developer option costs escalate rapidly.
Reflects the pricing power of NVR's pre-sold product and the cost of mortgage rate buydowns; compression narrows the operational advantage over peers.
Directly drives per-share earnings growth beyond top-line revenue; any curtailment slows the per-share compounding thesis.
Indicates future delivery capacity and finished lot cost inflation; tighter developer credit could constrain lot supply or elevate option premiums.
Serves as an early indicator of consumer stress and demand fragility; elevated cancellations lead to unabsorbed inventory and margin erosion.
| $10.01B |
| $10.36B |
| $10.67B |
| Revenue growth | -10.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Operating margin | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.8% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Operating income | $1.39B | $1.48B | $1.58B | $1.66B | $1.71B |
| Tax rate | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $1.08B | $1.16B | $1.23B | $1.29B | $1.33B |
| Reinvestment | $32.42M | $34.74M | $37.01M | $38.79M | $39.95M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $1.05B | $1.12B | $1.20B | $1.25B | $1.29B |
| Home Building revenue | $9.03B | $9.37B | $9.79B | $10.13B | $10.43B |
| Mortgage Banking revenue | $205.04M | $212.66M | $222.23M | $230.01M | $236.91M |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Diluted shares outstanding dropped from 3,069,103 in FY2025 to 2,664,860 as of October 11, 2026, reflecting a 13.17% reduction.
Annual share count shrinkage of 3.0% to 3.5% boosts long-term per-share compounding, allowing EPS to outgrow net income by 300 to 350 basis points annually across the cycle.
NVR held $1,956.88M in cash and marketable securities against $1,196.63M in total debt as of FY2025, leaving a broad net cash surplus of $760.26M.
Zero dependence on commercial paper or speculative credit facilities gives NVR unmatched strategic flexibility to execute countercyclical repurchases and secure favorable developer terms during downturns.
| الهامش |
|---|
| NVR | NVR Inc. | $15.7B | 14.8x | 1.6x | 10.4x | 31.5% | — |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | $18.2B | 14.6x | 0.6x | 11.9x | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| PHM | PulteGroup Inc. | $21.4B | 10.3x | 1.3x | 8.1x | 14.9% | 15.7% |
| DHI | D.R. Horton Inc. | $37.7B | 11.7x | 1.1x | 10.6x | 12.6% | 13.0% |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | $23.4B | 10.3x | 1.7x | 7.7x | 122.9% | 19.7% |
| negative |
| Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5% to 7.0% alongside elevated home prices severely test household qualification thresholds, demanding builder financing incentives that pressure operating margins. |
| Contraction worse than -15.0% |
| Re-underwrite delivery volume recovery trajectory and lower long-term terminal growth rate. |
| Annual Share Buyback Volume | Below $500M annually | Lower per-share EPS growth trajectory in discounted earnings and forward earnings models. |
