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Direct answer
PANW trades against a final fair-value range of $54.82-$101.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $54.8, high $101, with mid-point at $77.3.
Stock analysis

PANW fair value $55–$101

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-08التحديث التالي: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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السعر
$196.53
▼ -119.18 (-60.64%)
القيمة العادلة
$77
$55–$101
التصنيف
بيع
confidence 88/100
إمكانية الصعود
-60.6%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$65.75
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$159.4B
P/E fwd 49.5
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $77 with high case $101.
  • Implied downside of 60.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$77
Margin of safety
-154.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$196.53Price
Low $54.82
Mid $77.35
High $101.35

PANW trades against a final fair-value range of $54.82-$101.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs driven by
    High switching costs driven by consolidated enterprise security architecture.
  • Comprehensive platform spanning network, cloud,
    Comprehensive platform spanning network, cloud, and security operations.
  • Bull thesis
    Fundamental: Intrinsic models heavily penalize extreme SBC dilution and modest current operating margins.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

Under a macroeconomic downturn, enterprise IT budgets contract, delaying large-scale platform migrations. PANW's premium pricing faces pressure, while elevated SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. remains fixed, structurally compressing margins and pushing free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. below the required $3.4B maintenance threshold.

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

SBC Dilution Crushes EPS

· High

Persistently high stock-based compensation (~14% of revenue) prevents meaningful GAAP earnings inflection, eroding shareholder value despite top-line growth.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Hyperscaler Commoditization

· Medium

Major cloud providers bundle native security tools, commoditizing PANW's core network and cloud security modules, forcing significant pricing concessions.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
2-3 Years

Platform Consolidation Reversal

· Low

Enterprises revert to best-of-breed point solutions in response to a major vulnerability or breach within the consolidated Cortex platform.

FV impact
-50%
Trigger
3-5 Years
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Deceleration in next-generation security (NGS) ARR growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins stall below the expected 22% target.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC expense remains above 10% of total revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major enterprise platform consolidation deals to competitors.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow to net income conversion ratio drops below 2.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
الإيرادات$5.50B$6.89B$8.03B$9.22B+18.8%
إجمالي الربح$3.78B$4.98B$5.97B$6.77B+21.4%
الدخل التشغيلي$-188.8M$387.3M$683.9M$1.24B—
صافي الدخل$-267.0M$439.7M$2.58B$1.13B—
EPS (مخفف)$-0.45$0.64$3.64$1.60—
EBITDA$95.6M$869.0M$1.28B$1.94B+172.8%
البحث والتطوير$1.42B$1.60B$1.81B$1.98B+11.9%
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$2.55B$2.99B$3.48B$3.54B+11.5%

درجات الجودة

درجة Piotroski F
4 / 9
مركب جودة 0–9
درجة Altman Z
6.81
مخاطر الإفلاس (>3 آمن)
OCF / صافي الدخل
3.28×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Pass
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
18.8%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

التدفق النقدي

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

PANW cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for PANW (PANW) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

PANW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PANW looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $197 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $77.3 (range $54.8–$101), which implies roughly 60.6% downside to the midpoint.

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