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Direct answer
WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $297, with mid-point at $206.
Stock analysis

WDC fair value $143–$297

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-09التحديث التالي: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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السعر
$480.00
▼ -274.13 (-57.11%)
القيمة العادلة
$206
$143–$297
التصنيف
بيع
confidence 57/100
إمكانية الصعود
-57.1%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$174.99
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$165.4B
P/E fwd 27.6
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $206 with high case $297.
  • Implied downside of 57.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 3/10 · confidence 57/100 · Cyclical.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$206
Margin of safety
-133.2%
Confidence
57/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$480.00Price
Low $142.93
Mid $205.87
High $297.11

WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale in HDD and NAND
    Scale in HDD and NAND flash manufacturing
  • Extensive intellectual property portfolio
    Extensive intellectual property portfolio
  • Cycle upside
    Current cycle peak driven by AI server storage demands and tight supply discipline across the memory oligopoly.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

In a severe cycle downturn mirroring 2023, margins collapse, revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. shrinks double-digits, and free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. turns heavily negative due to rigid maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct..

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Cyclical Bust and Oversupply

· High

A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.

FV impact
Down to $142.93 (-70%)
Trigger
12-24 Months

Technological Displacement

· Medium

Failure to remain competitive in next-generation high-capacity enterprise SSDs, losing share to Samsung or SK Hynix.

FV impact
Down to $180.00 (-62%)
Trigger
36+ Months

Balance Sheet Impairment

· Low

A deep cyclical trough strains liquidity before the flash spin-off is completed, triggering distressed capital raises.

FV impact
Down to $100.00 (-79%)
Trigger
18-36 Months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Rising days inventory outstandingMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in NAND average selling pricesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex pushouts or cancellationsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay or cancellation of the flash business spin-offMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Competitors aggressively adding fab capacityMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات
البندT−0T−1T−2T−3معدل النمو السنوي المركب
الفترة2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
الإيرادات$18.79B$6.26B$6.32B$9.52B-20.3%
إجمالي الربح$5.87B$1.39B$1.77B$3.69B-14.3%
الدخل التشغيلي$2.43B$-402.0M$97.0M$2.13B-4.3%
صافي الدخل$1.55B$-1.68B$-798.0M$1.86B+6.4%
EPS (مخفف)$4.75$-5.44$-1.72$5.12+2.5%
EBITDA$3.40B$289.0M$243.0M$1.94B-17.1%
البحث والتطوير$2.32B$986.0M$950.0M$994.0M-24.6%
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$1.12B$807.0M$726.0M$568.0M-20.2%

درجات الجودة

درجة Piotroski F
6 / 9
مركب جودة 0–9
درجة Altman Z
12.88
مخاطر الإفلاس (>3 آمن)
درجة Beneish M
-2.36
مخاطر التلاعب بالأرباح
OCF / صافي الدخل
0.91×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Pass
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
11.5%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
القسم 3

Numbers analysis

التدفق النقدي

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصيص رأس المال

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

المشتركون الأفراد — من §4 فصاعداً11 قسماً إضافياً

اقرأ التحليل الكامل — 11 قسماً إضافياً.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

WDC income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of WDC (WDC) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

WDC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $480 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $206 (range $143–$297), which implies roughly 57.1% downside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: cyclical