Fair value

Fair value is our point estimate — really, our range estimate — of intrinsic per-share value, expressed as a low/mid/high band rather than a single number. The range reflects three sources of model uncertainty: discount-rate uncertainty (strict versus moderate cost of equity), terminal-value uncertainty (Gordon-growth versus exit-multiple methods), and growth-trajectory uncertainty (bull versus base versus bear). The composite blends weighted outputs from at least four lenses: an SBC-adjusted discounted-earnings model at two cost-of-equity levels, a five-year forward-earnings model with probability-weighted bull/base/bear scenarios, an owner-earnings floor (where applicable), and a peer-multiple cross-check (typically PEG-adjusted). Weights are archetype-specific: financials lean on residual income; capital-intensive businesses lean on EV/EBITDA; hyper-growth names lean on the forward-earnings model with suppressed terminal-multiple assumptions. We never report fair value as a single point because a single point implies false precision; the band signals where high-confidence territory ends and where assumptions stop being defensible.