Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $81.0, high $179, with mid-point at $126.
Stock analysis

BX Blackstone Inc. fair value $126–$179

BX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-09Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: FinancialNYSE · Financials
View archive
Kurs
$123.77
▲ +2.11 (+1.70%)
Fair Value
$126
$126–$179
Rating
Halten
confidence 78/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
+1.7%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$107.00
buy below · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$151.3B
P/E fwd 16.4
Englische QuelleDE
Englische Quelle wird angezeigt, während wir übersetzen
Dieser Bericht wurde noch nicht übersetzt. Aktualisieren Sie in ein paar Minuten, sobald die Übersetzungswarteschlange aufgeholt hat.

§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $126 with high case $179.
  • Implied upside of 1.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Financial.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$126
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$123.77Price
FV $125.88
High $178.71

BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Brand intangible asset drawing massive
    Brand intangible asset drawing massive LP capital.
  • High switching costs for locked-up
    High switching costs for locked-up institutional mandates.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation is demanding at current levels.

§2 Bärenszenario

A prolonged stagflationary environment freezes realization activity, severely depressing performance fees. Simultaneously, structural shifts in commercial real estate permanently impair core fund NAVs, halting fresh inflows and forcing fee reductions on existing AUM.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

Commercial Real Estate Meltdown

15%· Low

Systemic devaluation of CRE assets leading to massive writedowns in core funds and halting fee-bearing capital inflows.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Prolonged High Rate Regime

25%· Medium

Interest rates remain elevated, suffocating leveraged buyout economics and freezing M&A exit pipelines indefinitely.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 years

Retail Channel Retreat

10%· Low

Retail investors abruptly withdraw from private markets due to liquidity mismatch fears, capping AUM growth.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 months
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Consecutive quarters of declining fee-related earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Widening discount to NAV in retail-facing perpetual vehicles.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sharp decline in dry powder deployment rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Key talent departures in critical private credit strategies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory caps on leverage or retail fund accessibility.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Umsatz$16.65B$7.13B$7.01B$10.93B$12.41B-7.1%
Bruttogewinn——————
Betriebsergebnis——————
Nettogewinn$5.86B$1.75B$1.39B$2.78B$3.02B-15.3%
EPS (verwässert)$8.13$2.36$1.84$3.62$3.87-16.9%
EBITDA——————
F&E——————
VVG$928.2M$1.12B$1.24B$1.38B$1.57B+14.1%

Qualitäts-Scores

OCF / Nettogewinn
1.54×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Fail
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
—
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Vollständiger Bericht für jeden abgedeckten Ticker
24 Monate Rating-Archiv
Watchlist-Briefings + Rating-Änderungs-Warnungen
PDF + DOCX Export in jeder Sprache
Kostenlose Testversion starten
Jederzeit kündbar.
FAQ

BX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BX trades close to fair value. The current price is $124 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $126 (range $81.0–$179), which implies roughly 1.7% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of BX also follow

Same archetype: financial
Same sector: Financials