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DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $123, high $204, with mid-point at $163.
Stock analysis

DHR Danaher Corporation fair value $163–$204

DHR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-10Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Health Care
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Kurs
$171.16
▼ -8.06 (-4.71%)
Fair Value
$163
$163–$204
Rating
Halten
confidence 87/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
-4.7%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$138.63
buy below · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$121.1B
P/E fwd 18.8
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§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $163 with high case $204.
  • Implied downside of 4.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$163
Margin of safety
-4.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$171.16Price
FV $163.1
High $203.68

DHR trades against a final fair-value range of $122.72-$203.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Intrinsic valuation suggests downside risk.

§2 Bärenszenario

Under severe bioprocessing market contraction and failed M&A execution, our pure intrinsic models force valuation toward the $114-$122 range. Margins revert below 19% as DBS efficiencies fail to offset volume deleverage, and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. contracts toward 15x as the compounding narrative breaks.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

Prolonged Bioprocessing Slump

· High

Extended pharma funding constraints and destocking cap revenue growth in low single-digits.

FV impact
-25%

M&A Integration Failure

· Medium

A major acquisition fails to realize DBS synergies, destroying ROIC and stalling margin expansion.

FV impact
-15%

China Market Deterioration

· Medium

Deepening macro weakness and localized competition in China structurally erode regional market share and profitability.

FV impact
-10%
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Consumables growth turning negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin contracting below 19%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexplained delays in M&A integration milestonesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising days sales outstanding in emerging marketsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
CapEx to depreciation ratio falling below 0.75MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Umsatz$24.80B$26.64B$23.89B$23.88B$24.57B-0.2%
Bruttogewinn$15.24B$16.19B$14.03B$14.21B$14.52B-1.2%
Betriebsergebnis$6.39B$7.54B$5.20B$4.86B$4.69B-7.4%
Nettogewinn$6.43B$7.21B$4.76B$3.90B$3.61B-13.4%
EPS (verwässert)$9.66$6.38$5.29$5.05-15.0%
EBITDA$8.80B$9.48B$7.50B$7.28B$6.95B-5.8%
F&E$1.50B$1.53B$1.50B$1.58B$1.60B+1.6%
VVG$6.81B$7.12B$7.33B$7.76B$8.24B+4.9%

Qualitäts-Scores

Piotroski F-Score
5 / 9
0–9 Qualitätskomposit
Altman Z-Score
3.69
Insolvenzrisiko (>3 sicher)
Beneish M-Score
-2.57
Risiko von Ergebnismanipulation
OCF / Nettogewinn
1.78×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
4.9%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

DHR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, DHR trades close to fair value. The current price is $171 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $163 (range $123–$204), which implies roughly 4.7% downside to the midpoint.
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