Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)

NASDAQ: ERIE · USD

$245

-2.05 (-0.8%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-20

Our latest published analysis: ERIE rated Sell

Erie Indemnity Company's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$151 / share

Potential value

$227 / share

Upside to FV

-36.7%

from $245

Moat

8/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$12.5B
Revenue (ttm)	4.1B
Net income (ttm)	577M
EPS (ttm)	$11.0
Shares out	52.3M
P/E (trailing)	22.2x
P/E (forward)	26.7x
Dividend	$5.85 (2.39%)
Volume	127,947
Beta	0.33

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 4.1B
Net income (ttm): 577M
EPS (ttm): $11.0
P/E (trailing): 22.2x
P/E (forward): 26.7x
Market cap: $12.5B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$2.63B	$2.84B	$3.27B	$3.80B	$4.07B	+11.5%
Gross profit	$2.70B	$376.2M	$520.3M	$676.5M	$640.8M	-30.2%
Operating income	$318.1M	$376.2M	$520.3M	$676.5M	$717.2M	+22.5%
Net income	$297.9M	$298.6M	$446.1M	$600.3M	$559.3M	+17.1%
EPS (diluted)	$5.61	$6.08	$8.69	$11.49	$12.24	+21.5%
EBITDA	$-286.1M	$428.4M	$600.2M	$766.3M	$787.4M	—
R&D	$0	$0	$0	—	—	+10.2%
SG&A	$58.3M	$668.3M	$737.1M	$806.3M	$74.1M	+6.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ACGL	Arch Capital Group Ltd.	34.8B	8.3x	1.8x	15.9%	+15.1%	+18.7%	Starker Kauf
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	Starker Kauf
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	Halten
AJG	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	66.7B	43.2x	4.4x	6.6%	+15.3%	-5.7%	Kaufen
ALL	The Allstate Corporation	63.2B	5.0x	0.9x	32.6%	+8.5%	+31.8%	Starker Kauf
AMP	Ameriprise Financial, Inc.	43.1B	11.8x	2.2x	43.0%	+8.9%	+1.1%	Kaufen

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$151.31

-36.7% from spot

In the base scenario, management fee revenue grows steadily in line with regional premium expansion while operating margins remain stable. Reinvestment moderates gradually, aligning intrinsic worth with Fair value $151.31 against the share price at analysis $239.05.

Management fee revenue expands at steady regional insurance trend rates
Operating margin remains constant under contractual fee formulas
Capital expenditure recedes gradually over several years

Bull20%

Price target

$226.92

-5.1% from spot

In the bull scenario, policyholder expansion into contiguous states accelerates while modern software deployments streamline administrative operations. Capital spending normalizes toward depreciation, releasing free cash flow and supporting Potential value $226.92.

Policy issuance fee growth accelerates above long-term economic rates
Operating profitability widens as platform modernization yields efficiency gains
Capital expenditures decline to maintenance levels

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($151.31). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$188	$206	$230	$267	$327
6.0%	$158	$168	$180	$197	$220
7.0%	$138	$144	$151	$161	$172
8.0%	$123	$127	$132	$138	$145
9.0%	$112	$115	$118	$122	$127

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E26.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E21.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE24.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC27.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ERIE indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

280

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 280 of 280 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000922621
Company name	Erie Indemnity Company
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	29530P102
Earnings date	2026-10-29
Earnings time	amc
Employees	6,667
Employees change	-134
Employees growth	-1.97%
Enterprise value	$12.6B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1925
In index	SP500
Industry	Insurance Brokers
IPO date	1995-10-02
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US29530P1021
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-23
Last earnings date	2026-07-30
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	1996-05-13
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$12.8B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-10-29
Options	Yes
Price	$244.83
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6411
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ERIE
U.S. state	Pennsylvania
Website	https://www.erieinsurance.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	19.44x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	32.92x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	33.75x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	34.41x
Earnings yield	4.5%
EV/Earnings	21.98x
EV/EBIT	16.77x
EV/EBITDA	15.19x
EV/FCF	22.94x
EV/Sales	3.08x
FCF / EV yield	4.36%
FCF yield	4.28%
Forward EV/Sales	6.14x
Forward P/S	6.25x
Graham number	108.15971
Graham upside	-56.25%
Industry forward P/E	16.79x
Industry P/E	27.95x
Lynch fair value	$150.19
Lynch upside	-39.25%
P/B ratio	5.23x
P/E ratio	22.22x
P/FCF ratio	23.37x
P/OCF ratio	18.53x
P/S ratio	3.14x
Price / tangible book value	5.24x
Price/EBITDA ratio	15.48x
Sector forward P/E	13.61x
Sector P/E	15.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	18.37%
EBITDA margin	20.27%
Effective tax rate	21.34%
FCF margin	13.43%
Gross margin	17.9%
Operating margin	18.37%
Pretax margin	17.81%
Profit margin	14.01%
Profit per employee	$86,546
Profitable quarters	70
Profitable years	32
Revenue per employee	$617,889
ROA	14.15%
ROA (5Y)	13.14%
ROCE	29.23%
ROE	24.81%
ROE (5Y)	26.54%
ROIC	27.39%
ROIC (5Y)	29.12%
Tax / revenue	3.8%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-7.78%
EPS growth (Q)	3.23%
EPS growth (QoQ)	19.82%
EPS growth 10Y	11.96%
EPS growth 3Y	17.64%
EPS growth 5Y	13.6%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	-1.94%
FCF growth (Q)	10.22%
FCF growth (QoQ)	218.3%
FCF growth 3Y	15.85%
FCF growth 5Y	13.26%
Gross profit growth	5.67%
Gross profit growth (Q)	2.49%
Gross profit growth 3Y	19.46%
Gross profit growth 5Y	18%
Net income growth	-7.67%
Net income growth (Q)	3.21%
Net income growth (QoQ)	19.82%
Net income growth 3Y	17.7%
Net income growth 5Y	13.63%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	1.37%
OCF growth (Q)	21.03%
OCF growth (QoQ)	133.89%
OCF growth 3Y	16.63%
OCF growth 5Y	15.26%
Operating income growth	4.25%
Operating income growth (Q)	1.62%
Operating income growth 3Y	18.74%
Operating income growth 5Y	18.81%
Revenue growth	3.67%
Revenue growth (Q)	2.8%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	7.7%
Revenue growth 3Y	10.73%
Revenue growth 5Y	9.87%
Revenue growth quarters	43
Revenue growth years	11

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-144.7M
Depreciation and amortization	$78.4M
EBIT	$756.6M
EBITDA	$835M
EPS	$11.02
FCF per share	$10.58
Financing cash flow	$-235.5M
Free cash flow	$553.1M
Gross profit	$737.5M
Income taxes	$156.5M
Investing cash flow	$-537.4M
Net cash flow	$-75.1M
Net income	$577M
Operating income	$756.6M
Revenue	$4.1B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	11.61
Book value per share	$47.18
Debt / EBITDA	0.07
Debt / equity	0.03
Debt / FCF	0.11
Long-term assets	$2.4B
Long-term liabilities	$121.5M
Net cash (debt)	$241.9M
Net cash / market cap	1.87%
Net cash growth	-32.08%
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.29
Net debt / equity	-0.1
Net debt / FCF	-0.44
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$593.4M
Shareholders' equity	$2.5B
Tangible book value	$2.5B
Tangible book value per share	$47.18
Total assets	$3.6B
Total cash	$305M
Total debt	$63.2M
Total liabilities	$1.1B
WACC	6.04%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.23
Current assets	$1.2B
Current liabilities	$968.4M
Current ratio	1.25
Net working capital	$-3.7M
Quick ratio	1.11
Working capital	$238.1M
Working capital turnover	12.76

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.01%
Dividend growth	7.14%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.2%
Dividend growth (3Y)	7.11%
Dividend growth (5Y)	7.16%
Dividend growth years	36
Dividend payment date	2026-10-20
Dividend payment years	36
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$5.85
Dividend yield	2.39%
Ex-dividend date	2026-10-05
FCF payout ratio	55.31%
Last dividend	$1.46
Payout ratio	53.09%
Shareholder yield	2.38%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	139.22%
10Y return CAGR	11.52%
10Y total return	197.39%
150-day SMA	$236.81
15Y price change	203.54%
15Y return CAGR	10.63%
15Y total return	355.16%
1D price change	-0.83%
1M price change	9.37%
1M total return	10.1%
1W price change	-0.89%
1W total return	-0.89%
1Y price change	-26.13%
1Y return CAGR	-24.41%
1Y total return	-24.39%
20-day SMA	$235.36
200-day SMA	$244.69
20Y price change	383.8%
20Y return CAGR	11.46%
20Y total return	775.34%
3M price change	6.78%
3M total return	7.49%
3Y price change	-10.8%
3Y return CAGR	-2.08%
3Y total return	-6.11%
50-day SMA	$241.88
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$330.33
52-week high date	2025-10-28
52-week low	$204.63
52-week low date	2026-06-03
5Y price change	23.06%
5Y return CAGR	6.21%
5Y total return	35.12%
6M price change	5.42%
6M total return	6.72%
All-time high	$547.00
All-time high date	2024-09-25
All-time low	$16.00
All-time low date	1995-10-02
Average true range (ATR)	$7.18
Average volume	173K
Beta (1Y)	0
Beta (2Y)	0.26
Beta (5Y)	0.33
Change from 52-week high	-25.88%
Change from 52-week low	19.65%
Change from all-time high	-55.44%
Change from all-time low	1,423.38%
Change from open	-0.5%
Day's gap	-0.34%
Dollar volume	$31.3M
High price	$246.05
Low price	$244.83
Monthly RSI	40.89
Open price	$246.05
Position in 52-week range	0%
Premarket change	-0.36%
Premarket close	$246.88
Premarket price	$245.98
Premarket volume	902
Previous close	$246.88
Price vs 150-day SMA	2.93%
Price vs 20-day SMA	3.56%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-0.39%
Price vs 50-day SMA	0.77%
Relative volume	0.74
RSI	53.93
Sharpe ratio	-0.65
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	-0.11
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.22
Sortino ratio	-0.73
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.02
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.49
Volume	127.9K
Weekly RSI	49.46
YTD price change	-14.97%
YTD total return	-12.96%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	25.1M
Float percentage	48.07%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.01%
Shares held by insiders	41.07%
Shares held by institutions	40.34%
Shares outstanding	52.3M
Short % of float	10.15%
Short % of shares	4.88%
Short ratio	9.1 days

Deeper analysis on ERIE

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ERIE report

What is the latest published ERIE stock rating?

Erie Indemnity Company is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ERIE analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, lives at /stocks/ERIE/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ERIE?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-20 gives ERIE a fair value of USD 151 and a potential value of USD 227. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ERIE page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-20). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellERIE · Fair value $151-36.7%

Read full analysis →

Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)

Our latest published analysis: ERIE rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ERIE

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ERIE indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ERIE

Frequently asked questions

Ratingverlauf

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	7.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	8.5
Competitive Moat	8.0
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	7.5