Information Technology / Software - Application

ESTC stock hub

ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

Read full analysis Valuation Archive

Fair value midpoint

$118

$79.8 - $166

Upside to midpoint

+126.2%

Based on latest report

Confidence

73/100

Data quality and model convergence

Market cap

$5.4B

NYSE

Our take

Research highlights

What our analysis says

Pulled from the latest published report. The full reasoning lives under /analysis.

Biggest opportunity

Bull case

Bull: Generative AI and vector search capabilities accelerate enterprise adoption, allowing Elastic to re-accelerate revenue growth back toward 20%. Operating leverage kicks in powerfully, translating ~75% gross margins into 30%+ free cash flow margins and driving significant multiple expansion.

Biggest risk

Cloud Provider Commoditization

Recommended action

Strong Buy

ESTC is rated Strong Buy at $52.25 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $118.21, implying +126.24% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 73/100.

Market data

Live price

Polled client-side every 30 s; the bare-URL shell stays cacheable for a full day.

Current price

ESTC

Source: backend price pulse endpoint

In the news

Latest headlines

Fetched client-side; each row carries the publisher and the read-out date.

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Fetching the latest headlines.

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Fetching the latest headlines.

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Fetching the latest headlines.

Calendar

Next earnings

Fetched client-side from the daily earnings-calendar mirror.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Analysis map

Jump into the research surface

These links all point into /analysis/*, so a hub rollback leaves the report reader and legacy redirects live.

Forecast

Targets

Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.

Valuation

Models

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

Sensitivity

Grid

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

Risks

Bear case

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

Earnings

Decision tree

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

Position sizing

Checkpoints

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

Financials

History

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

Peers

Comps

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

Moat

Durability

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

Industry cycle

Context

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

Scorecard

Factors

Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.

Recommendation

Verdict

Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.

Perspectives

Lenses

Growth, value, and income investor reads.

Where the current metrics sit

Percentiles come from the backend screener cohort cache for the ticker's country and sector.

Forward P/E18.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E0

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE-10.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC760.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks - 1M

S&P 500n/a

Nasdaq Compositen/a

Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a

Russell 2000n/a

Our take

Fast facts

Decision checkpoints

A compact product layer over the same report payload.

Risk gate

Named kill scenarios are reviewed before any bullish rating can stand.

Moat score

6.5/10

Business quality stays separate from stock attractiveness.

Forward P/E

18.4x

Valuation uses the full report model stack, not a single multiple.

Next action

Strong Buy

Final action steps are kept in the recommendation tab.

Our take

Income

Does ESTC pay a dividend?

Capital-return profile from the screener mirror.

Performance

ESTC stock returns vs the market

Total return (incl. dividends) compared to S&P 500.

Ownership

Who owns ESTC?

Insider, institutional, and short-interest positioning.

Institutional ownership

+84.0%

Float: +80.0% of shares outstanding

Insider ownership

+12.6%

Stake held by company insiders. Higher generally signals alignment.

Negative means the company is buying back shares.

Technical

ESTC momentum and risk profile

RSI, moving-average stack, beta, and risk-adjusted return.

RSI (14)

58.7

Neutral momentum band

Price vs 200-day MA

-26.9%

50/200-day relationship not available

Beta (5Y)

0.89

Moves roughly with the market

Sharpe ratio

-0.80

Risk-adjusted return — higher is better; >1.0 is solid.

Peers

ESTC vs. sector cohort

Currency-neutral comparison: P/E, P/S, ROIC, 5Y revenue CAGR, and 1Y total return. Market-cap column appears only when every peer reports in the same currency.

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.	134.3B	—	27.9x	-358.8%	+40.6%	+24.9%	Verkaufen
INTC	Intel Corporation	627.8B	—	11.7x	1.5%	-7.1%	+515.1%	Verkaufen
AAPL	Apple Inc.	4.3T	35.6x	9.5x	104.3%	+6.8%	+50.1%	Verkaufen
ACN	Accenture plc	110.8B	14.8x	1.5x	27.2%	+9.6%	-39.5%	Kaufen
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	102.3B	14.8x	4.2x	63.3%	+12.3%	-34.3%	Starker Kauf

Questions

About ESTC

Hub-level FAQ points readers to the deeper analysis pages.

What is the current ESTC stock rating?

Elastic N.V. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ESTC analysis?

The full report lives at /stocks/ESTC/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.

What fair-value range is used for ESTC?

The latest report frames ESTC around $80 to $166. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.

How often is the ESTC page updated?

The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.

Canonical hub: /de/stocks/ESTC. Analysis surface: /de/stocks/ESTC/analysis.