KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $736, high $1244, with mid-point at $984.
Stock analysis
KLA CorporationKLAC KLA Corporation fair value $984–$1,244
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$984
Margin of safety
-89.9%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$1,869.19Price
FV $984.41
High $1,243.87
KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Dominant market share in advanced
Dominant market share in advanced metrology and inspection.
High capital intensity of advanced
High capital intensity of advanced node defect detection.
Bull thesis
Value: Extreme overvaluation relative to normalized cash flows.
Based on our latest analysis, KLAC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1869 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $984 (range $736–$1244), which implies roughly 47.3% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for KLAC is $736–$1244, with a midpoint of $984. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for KLA Corporation's archetype.
Our current rating for KLAC is Sell with a confidence score of 84/100. KLAC is rated Sell at $1,869.19 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $984.41, implying -47.33% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 84/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for KLA Corporation are: China Export Ban Expansion; WFE Cyclical Collapse; Margin Compression via R&D. The single biggest risk is Risk: High exposure to geopolitical export restrictions and industry down-cycles.
Our current rating for KLAC is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 84/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($736–$1244) versus the current price of $1869.
KLA Corporation is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for KLAC.
