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MCHP trades against a final fair-value range of $17.42-$30.27, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $17.4, high $30.3, with mid-point at $23.8.
Stock analysis

MCHP MCHP fair value $17–$30

MCHP
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-10Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Kurs
$99.09
▼ -75.25 (-75.94%)
Fair Value
$24
$17–$30
Rating
Verkaufen
confidence 41/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
-75.9%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$20.26
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$53.6B
P/E fwd 24.3
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§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $24 with high case $30.
  • Implied downside of 75.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 41/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$24
Margin of safety
-315.6%
Confidence
41/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$99.09Price
Low $17.42
Mid $23.84
High $30.27

MCHP trades against a final fair-value range of $17.42-$30.27, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in embedded
    High switching costs in embedded control solutions
  • Proprietary architecture lock-in
    Proprietary architecture lock-in
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating MCU demand across automotive and industrial sectors clearing channel inventory.

§2 Bärenszenario

A persistent cyclical trough coupled with aggressive price competition tests the resilience of the dividend and stretches leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. metrics.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

Prolonged inventory correction

· High

Channel inventory remains elevated, suppressing MCU shipments and depressing margins beyond FY25.

FV impact
-25%

Pricing power erosion

· Medium

Peers initiate a price war to clear excess capacity, destroying MCHP's gross margin profile permanently.

FV impact
-40%

Auto/Industrial recession

· High

End-market weakness persists, delaying the anticipated cyclical rebound in revenue and earnings.

FV impact
-30%
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Consecutive quarters of declining gross marginsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Days of inventory outstanding rising beyond historical peaksMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to recover operating cash flow above net incomeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Book-to-bill ratios remaining below 1.0MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Customer order push-outs and cancellations acceleratingMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2022-03-312023-03-312024-03-312025-03-31Trend
Umsatz$6.82B$8.44B$7.63B$4.40B-13.6%
Bruttogewinn$4.45B$5.70B$5.00B$2.47B-17.8%
Betriebsergebnis$1.88B$3.11B$2.56B$375.5M-41.5%
Nettogewinn$1.29B$2.24B$1.91B$-500.0KNaN%
EPS (verwässert)$2.27$4.02$3.48$-0.01NaN%
EBITDA$2.87B$4.10B$3.44B$1.04B-28.7%
F&E$989.1M$1.12B$1.10B$983.8M-0.2%
VVG$718.9M$797.7M$734.2M$617.7M-4.9%

Qualitäts-Scores

OCF / Nettogewinn
-1796.2
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Fail
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
1.8%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Cashflow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitalallokation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

MCHP — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MCHP looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $99.1 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $23.8 (range $17.4–$30.3), which implies roughly 75.9% downside to the midpoint.

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