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NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $134, high $242, with mid-point at $181.
Stock analysis

NEM fair value $134–$242

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-10Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Kurs
$116.51
▲ +64.69 (+55.52%)
Fair Value
$181
$134–$242
Rating
Starker Kauf
confidence 88/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
+55.5%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$154.02
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$124.4B
P/E fwd 10.3
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§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $181 with high case $242.
  • Implied upside of 55.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$181
Margin of safety
+35.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$116.51Price
Low $134.25
Mid $181.2
High $241.74

NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale advantages in tier-one gold
    Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
  • Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset
    Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
  • Cycle upside
    Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.

§2 Bärenszenario

A rapid normalization of gold prices back to historical averages combined with sticky operational costs will severely compress margins. Free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. could turn negative if capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). remain elevated to maintain production profiles amid declining ore grades.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

Gold Price Collapse

· Medium

Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.

FV impact
-30% to -40%
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Cost Inflation

· Low

Labor strikes and energy price spikes drive all-in sustaining costs above realized gold prices.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
6-12 months

Geopolitical Expropriation

· Low

Key international assets face nationalization or prohibitive royalty increases, stripping significant production volume.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Unpredictable
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Sequential quarterly declines in realized gold prices.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
AISC rising faster than baseline inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Downward revisions to annual production guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected increases in sustaining capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deteriorating political stability in key operating regions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Umsatz$11.92B$11.81B$18.68B$22.67B+23.9%
Bruttogewinn$3.26B$3.01B$7.14B$12.06B+54.6%
Betriebsergebnis$1.61B$708.0M$5.91B$11.02B+90.1%
Nettogewinn$-429.0M$-2.49B$3.35B$7.09B—
EPS (verwässert)$-0.54$-2.94$2.92$6.39—
EBITDA$2.36B$320.0M$7.53B$14.09B+81.4%
F&E$229.0M$200.0M$197.0M$166.0M-10.2%
VVG$276.0M$299.0M$442.0M$382.0M+11.4%

Qualitäts-Scores

Piotroski F-Score
9 / 9
0–9 Qualitätskomposit
Altman Z-Score
4.54
Insolvenzrisiko (>3 sicher)
Beneish M-Score
-2.71
Risiko von Ergebnismanipulation
OCF / Nettogewinn
1.46×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
23.2%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Cashflow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitalallokation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

NEM scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for NEM (NEM) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

NEM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NEM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $117 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $181 (range $134–$242), which implies roughly 55.5% upside to the midpoint.

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