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WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $66.0, high $125, with mid-point at $95.3.
Stock analysis

WDAY fair value $66–$125

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-10Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Kurs
$127.83
▼ -32.56 (-25.47%)
Fair Value
$95
$66–$125
Rating
Verkaufen
confidence 87/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
-25.5%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$80.98
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$31.9B
P/E fwd 10.3
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§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $95 with high case $125.
  • Implied downside of 25.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$95
Margin of safety
-34.2%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$127.83Price
Low $65.95
Mid $95.27
High $124.7

WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Extremely high switching costs for
    Extremely high switching costs for enterprise ERP and HCM systems.
  • Deeply embedded core workflow integrations
    Deeply embedded core workflow integrations across corporate HR.
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks ($179) is recklessly anchored to an unsustainable 19% implied growth rate.

§2 Bärenszenario

Under severe macroeconomic contraction, enterprise IT budgets freeze. While Workday's subscription model cushions the immediate revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. blow, new logo acquisition stalls entirely. Margin expansion collapses as sales efficiency drops, keeping GAAP profitability heavily depressed by sticky SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs.

Wie diese These scheitern kann

HCM Market Saturation

· High

Core HCM market saturates fully, permanently capping organic top-line growth at low single digits.

FV impact
-35% ($82/share)
Trigger
12-24 months

Financials Cross-sell Stagnation

· Medium

Failure to displace deeply entrenched Oracle and SAP cloud financials deployments stunts TAM expansion.

FV impact
-25% ($95/share)
Trigger
24-36 months

SBC Valuation Reckoning

· Medium

The market ceases to forgive non-cash SBC, forcing GAAP-based valuation multiples to violently compress.

FV impact
-48% ($65/share)
Trigger
12-18 months
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Subscription billings growth decelerating below 10%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation expense rising above 18% of total revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention rate dipping below 100%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting structurally below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Pace of share repurchases failing to offset SBC dilution.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periode2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Umsatz$5.14B$6.22B$7.26B$8.45B$9.55B+16.8%
Bruttogewinn$3.71B$4.51B$5.49B$6.38B$7.23B+18.1%
Betriebsergebnis$-116.0M$-182.0M$183.0M$499.0M$1.02B—
Nettogewinn$29.0M$-367.0M$1.38B$526.0M$693.0M+121.1%
EPS (verwässert)$0.12$-1.44$5.21$1.95$2.59+115.5%
EBITDA$377.0M$206.0M$752.0M$1.08B$1.47B+40.5%
F&E$1.88B$2.25B$2.46B$2.63B$2.68B+9.3%
VVG$1.95B$2.44B$2.84B$3.25B$3.53B+16.0%

Qualitäts-Scores

Piotroski F-Score
8 / 9
0–9 Qualitätskomposit
Altman Z-Score
2.69
Insolvenzrisiko (>3 sicher)
Beneish M-Score
-2.78
Risiko von Ergebnismanipulation
OCF / Nettogewinn
4.24×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
7.6%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Cashflow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitalallokation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVERSE DCF FAQ

WDAY reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for WDAY (WDAY) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

WDAY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDAY looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $128 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $95.3 (range $66.0–$125), which implies roughly 25.5% downside to the midpoint.

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