WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $297, with mid-point at $206.
Stock analysis
Western Digital CorporationWDC Western Digital Corporation fair value $206–$297
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§1 Zusammenfassung
Composite fair value $206 with high case $297.
Implied downside of 57.1% to fair value.
Moat 3/10 · confidence 57/100 · Cyclical.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$206
Margin of safety
-133.2%
Confidence
57/100
Moat
3/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$480.00Price
FV $205.87
High $297.11
WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Scale in HDD and NAND
Scale in HDD and NAND flash manufacturing
Extensive intellectual property portfolio
Extensive intellectual property portfolio
Cycle upside
Current cycle peak driven by AI server storage demands and tight supply discipline across the memory oligopoly.
§2 Bärenszenario
In a severe cycle downturn mirroring 2023, margins collapse, revenue shrinks double-digits, and free cash flow turns heavily negative due to rigid maintenance capex.
Wie diese These scheitern kann
Cyclical Bust and Oversupply
· High
A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.
FV impact
Down to $142.93 (-70%)
Trigger
12-24 Months
Technological Displacement
· Medium
Failure to remain competitive in next-generation high-capacity enterprise SSDs, losing share to Samsung or SK Hynix.
FV impact
Down to $180.00 (-62%)
Trigger
36+ Months
Balance Sheet Impairment
· Low
A deep cyclical trough strains liquidity before the flash spin-off is completed, triggering distressed capital raises.
FV impact
Down to $100.00 (-79%)
Trigger
18-36 Months
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
Kennzahl
Aktuell
Auslöseschwelle
Rising days inventory outstanding
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in NAND average selling prices
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex pushouts or cancellations
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Delay or cancellation of the flash business spin-off
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Competitors aggressively adding fab capacity
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 Finanzielle Historie
Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
Position
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
CAGR
Periode
2022-06-30
2023-06-30
2024-06-30
2025-06-30
Trend
Umsatz
$18.79B
$6.26B
$6.32B
$9.52B
-20.3%
Bruttogewinn
$5.87B
$1.39B
$1.77B
$3.69B
-14.3%
Betriebsergebnis
$2.43B
$-402.0M
$97.0M
$2.13B
-4.3%
Nettogewinn
$1.55B
$-1.68B
$-798.0M
$1.86B
+6.4%
EPS (verwässert)
$4.75
$-5.44
$-1.72
$5.12
+2.5%
EBITDA
$3.40B
$289.0M
$243.0M
$1.94B
-17.1%
F&E
$2.32B
$986.0M
$950.0M
$994.0M
-24.6%
VVG
$1.12B
$807.0M
$726.0M
$568.0M
-20.2%
Qualitäts-Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6 / 9
0–9 Qualitätskomposit
Altman Z-Score
12.88
Insolvenzrisiko (>3 sicher)
Beneish M-Score
-2.36
Risiko von Ergebnismanipulation
OCF / Nettogewinn
0.91×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
11.5%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3
Numbers analysis
Cashflow
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
Kapitalallokation
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte
Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Vollständiger Bericht für jeden abgedeckten Ticker
Based on our latest independent analysis, WDC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $480 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $206 (range $143–$297), which implies roughly 57.1% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for WDC is $143–$297, with a midpoint of $206. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Western Digital Corporation's archetype.
Our current rating for WDC is Sell with a confidence score of 57/100. WDC is rated Sell at $480.00 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $205.87, implying -57.11% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 57/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Western Digital Corporation are: Cyclical Bust and Oversupply; Technological Displacement; Balance Sheet Impairment. The single biggest risk is Cyclical Bust and Oversupply: A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.
Our current rating for WDC is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 57/100 and a moat score of 3/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($143–$297) versus the current price of $480.
Western Digital Corporation is classified as a cyclical stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for WDC.
