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WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $297, with mid-point at $206.
Stock analysis

WDC fair value $143–$297

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysiert: 2026-05-09Nächste Aktualisierung: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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Kurs
$480.00
▼ -274.13 (-57.11%)
Fair Value
$206
$143–$297
Rating
Verkaufen
confidence 57/100
Aufwärtspotenzial
-57.1%
upside to fair value
Sicherheitsmarge
$174.99
MoS level · 15%
Marktkapitalisierung
$165.4B
P/E fwd 27.6
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§1 Zusammenfassung

  • Composite fair value $206 with high case $297.
  • Implied downside of 57.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 3/10 · confidence 57/100 · Cyclical.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$206
Margin of safety
-133.2%
Confidence
57/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$480.00Price
Low $142.93
Mid $205.87
High $297.11

WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale in HDD and NAND
    Scale in HDD and NAND flash manufacturing
  • Extensive intellectual property portfolio
    Extensive intellectual property portfolio
  • Cycle upside
    Current cycle peak driven by AI server storage demands and tight supply discipline across the memory oligopoly.

§2 Bärenszenario

In a severe cycle downturn mirroring 2023, margins collapse, revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. shrinks double-digits, and free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. turns heavily negative due to rigid maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct..

Wie diese These scheitern kann

Cyclical Bust and Oversupply

· High

A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.

FV impact
Down to $142.93 (-70%)
Trigger
12-24 Months

Technological Displacement

· Medium

Failure to remain competitive in next-generation high-capacity enterprise SSDs, losing share to Samsung or SK Hynix.

FV impact
Down to $180.00 (-62%)
Trigger
36+ Months

Balance Sheet Impairment

· Low

A deep cyclical trough strains liquidity before the flash spin-off is completed, triggering distressed capital raises.

FV impact
Down to $100.00 (-79%)
Trigger
18-36 Months
Frühwarnsignale zur Überwachung
KennzahlAktuellAuslöseschwelle
Rising days inventory outstandingMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in NAND average selling pricesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex pushouts or cancellationsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay or cancellation of the flash business spin-offMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Competitors aggressively adding fab capacityMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Finanzielle Historie

Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung — letzte sechs Perioden
PositionT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periode2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Umsatz$18.79B$6.26B$6.32B$9.52B-20.3%
Bruttogewinn$5.87B$1.39B$1.77B$3.69B-14.3%
Betriebsergebnis$2.43B$-402.0M$97.0M$2.13B-4.3%
Nettogewinn$1.55B$-1.68B$-798.0M$1.86B+6.4%
EPS (verwässert)$4.75$-5.44$-1.72$5.12+2.5%
EBITDA$3.40B$289.0M$243.0M$1.94B-17.1%
F&E$2.32B$986.0M$950.0M$994.0M-24.6%
VVG$1.12B$807.0M$726.0M$568.0M-20.2%

Qualitäts-Scores

Piotroski F-Score
6 / 9
0–9 Qualitätskomposit
Altman Z-Score
12.88
Insolvenzrisiko (>3 sicher)
Beneish M-Score
-2.36
Risiko von Ergebnismanipulation
OCF / Nettogewinn
0.91×
>1 weist auf hohe Ergebnisqualität hin
Bilanzqualitätsschwelle
Pass
Sektoradjustierte Schwelle
ROIC
11.5%
Rendite auf eingesetztes Kapital
Abschnitt 3

Numbers analysis

Cashflow

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Kapitalallokation

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Einzelabonnenten — ab §411 weitere Abschnitte

Vollständige Analyse lesen — 11 weitere Abschnitte.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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BALANCE SHEET FAQ

WDC balance sheet questions

  1. WDC (WDC)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

WDC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $480 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $206 (range $143–$297), which implies roughly 57.1% downside to the midpoint.

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