Bear case
Composite score: 45.76
Breadth weakens and sector rotation narrows.
Validated historical issue
Stock market outlook — October 2026
Stock market outlook — October 2026
Published narrative
Market analysis
Stock market outlook — October 2026
On 2026-10-29, our market regime score was 55.91 (neutral). Its average over the 10 trading days we recorded this month was 55.76.
Breadth measured unavailable for the share above its 50-day average and unavailable for the share above its 200-day average. The latest breadth, sector-rotation, and valuation-dispersion scores were unavailable, unavailable, and 55.91 respectively.
The sector comparison as of 2026-10-29 covers 11 sectors for rotation and 11 for valuation. Where a source value was missing, it is shown as unavailable rather than estimated.
Scenarios for the coming month
- **Bear:** composite score 45.76. Breadth weakens and sector rotation narrows. - **Base:** composite score 55.76. The trend in the latest data continues through the coming month. - **Bull:** composite score 65.76. Breadth expands and dispersion remains contained.
Regime scorecard
| Factor | Latest | Issue average | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market regime | 55.91 | 55.76 | 100% |
| Breadth | Not available | Not available | 40% |
| Valuation dispersion | 55.91 | 55.76 | 30% |
| Sector rotation | Not available | Not available | 30% |
Breadth
- Score
- Not available
- Pct above sma50
- Not available
- Pct above sma200
- Not available
- Universe size
- 5,626
| Date | Above 50-day average | Above 200-day average | Breadth score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-02 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-15 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-19 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-20 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-22 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-23 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-27 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-28 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2026-10-29 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
Sector rotation
- Score
- Not available
- Avg 3m
- Not available
- Avg ytd
- Not available
- Avg week
- Not available
- Avg month
- Not available
| Sector | Sample | Week median | Month median | 3-month median | YTD median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | 260 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Consumer Discretionary | 528 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Consumer Staples | 244 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Energy | 252 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Financials | 1101 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Healthcare | 1054 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Industrials | 722 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Materials | 297 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Real Estate | 247 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Technology | 797 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Utilities | 109 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
Valuation dispersion
- Iqr
- 11.02
- Score
- 55.91
- P90 p10
- 18.12
- Pe samples total
- 2,957
- Sectors considered
- 11
- Valuation samples total
- 2,979
| Sector | Metric | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | P/E | 16.15 | 117 |
| Consumer Discretionary | P/E | 17.66 | 325 |
| Consumer Staples | P/E | 18.39 | 140 |
| Energy | EV/EBITDA | 7.68 | 208 |
| Financials | P/B + P/TBV | 1.34 | 811 |
| Healthcare | P/E | 25.81 | 240 |
| Industrials | P/E | 24.88 | 408 |
| Materials | EV/EBITDA | 8.9 | 184 |
| Real Estate | P/FFO + dividend yield | 14.17 | 75 |
| Technology | P/E | 29.91 | 385 |
| Utilities | P/E | 20.23 | 86 |
Scenarios
Base case
Composite score: 55.76
The trend in the latest data continues through the coming month.
Bull case
Composite score: 65.76
Breadth expands and dispersion remains contained.
This page preserves the issue as published. Its as-of date is 2026-10-29; it is not automatically presented as current after 2026-12-13. Check current-outlook availability.