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Boston Scientific is a mature compounder in the medical device sector, benefiting from a diverse portfolio across cardiovascular, MedSurg, and rhythm management, generating strong operating cash flows and consistent margin expansion. Fair value range: low $55.9, high $85.0, with mid-point at $70.4.
Stock analysis

BSX BSX fair value $56–$85

BSX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-12Próxima actualización: 2026-08-12Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Precio
$54.10
▲ +16.29 (+30.11%)
Valor razonable
$70
$56–$85
Calificación
Compra fuerte
confidence 88/100
Potencial alcista
+30.1%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$59.83
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$80.4B
P/E fwd 14.4
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Strong Buy rating driven by 30% upside to $70.39 composite fair value midpoint.
  • Mature compounder profile translates high ROE into durable EPS growth with fading downside risk.
  • Q1 revenue growth of 11.6% outpaces major cardiovascular and MedSurg peers.
  • Valuation explicitly bridges benchmark optimism with structural terminal constraints via a moat-fade framework.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
+23.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$54.10Price
Low $55.91
Mid $70.39
High $85.05

Boston Scientific is a mature compounder in the medical device sector, benefiting from a diverse portfolio across cardiovascular, MedSurg, and rhythm management, generating strong operating cash flows and consistent margin expansion.

  • High switching costs in implantable
    High switching costs in implantable MedSurg devices.
  • Intangible assets via robust IP
    Intangible assets via robust IP in structural heart (WATCHMAN).
  • Cycle upside
    Demographic tailwinds and deferred elective procedure catch-up drive sustained, above-trend cardiovascular demand.

§2 Caso bajista

A severe macro shock testing hospital capital budgets exposes operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. risks. With high fixed costs and a reinvestment rate of 82.6%, a top-line deceleration below 6% rapidly compresses the 20% operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items., forcing fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. down toward the $55.91 bear floor.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Multiple Compression to Peer Median

· Medium

Premium valuation collapses as the market forces reversion to peer median PEG ratios.

FV impact
Valuation plunges to $40.05 peg_adjusted_peer level.
Trigger
12-24 months

Reimbursement Rate Cuts

· Low

Medicare reimbursement cuts and hospital consolidation severely erode structural pricing power.

FV impact
Midpoint fair value drops to the $55.91 bear boundary.
Trigger
12-36 months

WATCHMAN Normalization Stall

· Medium

Accelerated market share gains in the structural heart segment fail, normalizing revenue growth abruptly.

FV impact
Pulls valuation below the $61.91 FCFF DCF baseline.
Trigger
6-18 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Revenue growth decelerates below 6% falsification trigger.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins fail to sustain the 20.0% normalized assumption.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Peer forward P/E multiples compress, dragging the premium valuation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory setbacks in the cardiac rhythm management pipeline.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion drops below 1.0x net income.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Período2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ingresos$11.89B$12.68B$14.24B$16.75B$20.07B+14.0%
Beneficio bruto$8.18B$8.73B$9.90B$11.49B$13.85B+14.1%
Beneficio operativo$1.82B$2.03B$2.42B$3.00B$3.97B+21.5%
Beneficio neto$1.04B$698.0M$1.59B$1.85B$2.90B+29.2%
BPA (diluido)$0.69$0.45$1.07$1.25$1.94+29.5%
EBITDA$2.51B$2.75B$3.45B$3.86B$5.10B+19.4%
I+D$1.20B$1.32B$1.41B$1.62B$2.05B+14.3%
SG&A$4.36B$4.52B$5.19B$5.98B$6.89B+12.1%

Puntuaciones de calidad

OCF / Beneficio neto
1.57×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
8.3%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Flujo de caja

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

BSX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BSX looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $54.1 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.4 (range $55.9–$85.0), which implies roughly 30.1% upside to the midpoint.

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