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BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $81.0, high $179, with mid-point at $126.
Stock analysis

BX Blackstone Inc. fair value $126–$179

BX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-09Próxima actualización: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: FinancialNYSE · Financials
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Precio
$123.77
▲ +2.11 (+1.70%)
Valor razonable
$126
$126–$179
Calificación
Mantener
confidence 78/100
Potencial alcista
+1.7%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$107.00
buy below · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$151.3B
P/E fwd 16.4
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $126 with high case $179.
  • Implied upside of 1.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Financial.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$126
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$123.77Price
FV $125.88
High $178.71

BX trades against a final fair-value range of $81.01-$178.71, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Brand intangible asset drawing massive
    Brand intangible asset drawing massive LP capital.
  • High switching costs for locked-up
    High switching costs for locked-up institutional mandates.
  • Bull thesis
    Valuation is demanding at current levels.

§2 Caso bajista

A prolonged stagflationary environment freezes realization activity, severely depressing performance fees. Simultaneously, structural shifts in commercial real estate permanently impair core fund NAVs, halting fresh inflows and forcing fee reductions on existing AUM.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Commercial Real Estate Meltdown

15%· Low

Systemic devaluation of CRE assets leading to massive writedowns in core funds and halting fee-bearing capital inflows.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Prolonged High Rate Regime

25%· Medium

Interest rates remain elevated, suffocating leveraged buyout economics and freezing M&A exit pipelines indefinitely.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 years

Retail Channel Retreat

10%· Low

Retail investors abruptly withdraw from private markets due to liquidity mismatch fears, capping AUM growth.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Consecutive quarters of declining fee-related earnings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Widening discount to NAV in retail-facing perpetual vehicles.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sharp decline in dry powder deployment rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Key talent departures in critical private credit strategies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory caps on leverage or retail fund accessibility.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Período2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ingresos$16.65B$7.13B$7.01B$10.93B$12.41B-7.1%
Beneficio bruto——————
Beneficio operativo——————
Beneficio neto$5.86B$1.75B$1.39B$2.78B$3.02B-15.3%
BPA (diluido)$8.13$2.36$1.84$3.62$3.87-16.9%
EBITDA——————
I+D——————
SG&A$928.2M$1.12B$1.24B$1.38B$1.57B+14.1%

Puntuaciones de calidad

OCF / Beneficio neto
1.54×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
—
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Suscriptores individuales — desde §411 secciones más

Leer el análisis completo — 11 secciones más.

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FAQ

BX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BX trades close to fair value. The current price is $124 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $126 (range $81.0–$179), which implies roughly 1.7% upside to the midpoint.

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