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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CHD — frequently asked questions
Is Church & Dwight Co., Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-08, CHD looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 97,9 USD versus our fair value of 80,3 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 88,7 USD. That implies roughly 18.0% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-08, gives CHD a fair value of 80,3 USD and a potential value of 88,7 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CHD now?
Our latest published rating for CHD, analyzed 2026-10-08, is Reduce. Church & Dwight Co., Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 97,9 USD versus fair value of 80,3 USD; potential value is 88,7 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CHD?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-08 documents Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CHD's rating?
Our latest published rating for CHD, analyzed 2026-10-08, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 80,3 USD, the potential value of 88,7 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (97,9 USD).
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.
§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosReduce
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$97.90
Valor razonable
$80.30
Valor potencial
$88.70
A fecha de
2026-10-08
Por qué puede funcionar
Accelerated international distribution expansion and household penetration gains across high-margin personal care acquisitions.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
Scale competitors Colgate-Palmolive and Procter & Gamble escalate promotional affordability discounting in laundry and oral care while unrecovered transportation and Middle East conflict cost premiums exceed $30 million.
We assign Church & Dwight Co. Inc. a Reduce rating as the shares at USD 97.90 on October 8, 2026 trade at a 21.92% premium to our Fair value of USD 80.30, presenting an implied return of -17.98% that fails to justify current valuation multiples amid rising competitive promotional intensity and domestic laundry volume deceleration.4,5
We assign a Reduce rating to Church & Dwight Co. Inc.. For an ordinary equity investor, this recommendation indicates that capital is poorly compensated at prevailing price levels, and existing shareholders should trim exposure or reallocate into more defensively valued consumer staple alternatives. Although Church & Dwight operates a disciplined business model with resilient brand equity and reliable cash generation, current market pricing reflects operational perfection, leaving negative expected risk-adjusted returns.
As of October 8, 2026, Church & Dwight shares trade at USD 97.90. This valuation stands at a 21.92% premium to our Fair value estimate of USD 80.30 and exceeds our Potential value ceiling of USD 88.70. At USD 97.90, the implied return to Fair value is -17.98%, and even under our most constructive scenario, the share price remains 10.37% above Potential value. This pricing creates an unfavorable asymmetric risk profile where downside multiple derating substantially exceeds incremental operational upside.4
The principal risk that threatens our baseline valuation is an escalating promotional affordability conflict initiated by larger peers Colgate-Palmolive and Procter & Gamble. If scale competitors accelerate trade discounting and promotional allowances across domestic laundry and oral care categories, Church & Dwight would be forced to increase defensive promotional spending while absorbing $30 million in transitory freight and Middle East conflict cost premiums. In this failure mode, operating margins would compress below 14.5% against the FY2025 baseline EBIT margin of 17.37%, stalling adjusted EPS growth and triggering multiple derating toward mature peer benchmarks.5,7
The primary mechanism that could enable Church & Dwight to approach Potential value of USD 88.70 is accelerated distribution expansion in high-margin specialty acquisitions alongside international scaling. TheraBreath mouthwash consumption expanded over 20% in Q2 2026, capturing a 25% market share while household penetration remains low at 14% compared to 65% for the broader oral care category. If management successfully leverages this runway to extend TheraBreath into toothpaste and sustains high-single-digit international growth beyond its recent 9% rate, organic sales growth could exceed 5.0% and push gross margin expansion beyond the guided 100 to 120 basis points, lifting operating cash flows past the guided $1.18 billion.5
Core Household Brand Durability
The ARM & HAMMER trademark anchors the Consumer Domestic business ($4,774.8M revenue in FY2025), providing an enduring value-tier presence across baking soda, litter, and laundry.8
High-Growth Personal Care Runway
Acquired franchises provide robust multi-year growth runways, led by TheraBreath with over 20% consumption growth in Q2 2026 and only 14% household penetration versus 65% for the category.5
Capital expenditures near 2% of sales ($122.4M in FY2025) convert operating cash flow ($1,215.4M in FY2025) into consistent dividend growth and accretive bolt-on M&A.7
Recomendación de la casa
Reduce: Church & Dwight trades at an unjustified 21.92% premium to its Fair value of USD 80.30 on October 8, 2026, offering an implied return of -17.98% that leaves investors exposed to multiple compression as peer promotional investments and mature laundry demand drag on earnings momentum.4
Descripción general de la empresa
Church & Dwight Co. Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets a diversified portfolio of household essentials, personal care items, and specialty chemical products. The company operates primarily through three business segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products. The business serves mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, supermarkets, drugstores, and e-commerce platforms across North America and key international markets.
The Consumer Domestic division is the core business engine, generating $4,774.8M or 76.97% of consolidated sales and $920.8M in segment operating income in FY2025. Its offerings are anchored by the flagship ARM & HAMMER trademark across baking soda, cat litter, and laundry detergents, alongside acquired fast-growing brands including TheraBreath oral rinses and Hero acne treatments. In FY2026, the company broadened its fabric care presence through the bolt-on acquisition of Miss Mouth's stain removers.
The Consumer International division contributed $1,129.4M in revenue and $116.2M in operating income in FY2025, distributing personal care and household brands across Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The Specialty Products Division delivered $299.0M in revenue and $40.6M in operating profit in FY2025, providing animal productivity feeds and specialty carbonates to industrial and agricultural customers. Across all segments, consolidated FY2025 revenue totaled $6,203.2M with operating income of $1,077.6M.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
The stress test evaluates Church & Dwight under coincident competitive, operational, and macroeconomic pressures. Under this scenario, well-capitalized consumer staples peers escalate promotional affordability initiatives, while persistent geopolitical freight inflation exceeds the guided $30M baseline. Slower domestic consumer spending limits the pass-through of cost increases, causing ARM & HAMMER laundry volume to contract and capping acquired brand expansion. Operating margins compress from the FY2025 baseline of 17.37% toward 14.5%, driving an estimated fair value contraction of 22.5%. In tandem, terminal valuation multiples compress from the 21.0x baseline toward the 16.8x peer level, pulling intrinsic equity valuation toward the enterprise DCF bear valuation bound of $34.70. This highlights the sensitivity of CHD's October 8, 2026 share price of $97.90 to multiple compression and domestic consumer volume deceleration.
Aggressive affordability initiatives by scale peers CL (operating margin 20.97%) and PG (operating margin 22.09%) force CHD to increase promotional discounts while Middle East conflict transportation costs exceed the guided $30M headwind, compressing operating margin below 14.5% against FY2025 baseline EBIT margin of 17.37%.3,5,7
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
Inability to defend product pricing or offset commodity and freight inflation ($30M headwind), forcing downward revision of operating margin assumptions.
Actual:45.4% (Q2 2026)
Alerta si< 44.0%
02
§3 Foso competitivoEN
Narrow
Church & Dwight maintains a narrow economic moat underpinned by iconic brand intangibles and a cost-effective, hybrid distribution model. The company's core asset is the ARM & HAMMER trademark, which commands exceptional brand recognition and trusted value positioning across baking soda, fabric care, and cat litter. This domestic heritage is complemented by high-growth acquisitions such as TheraBreath and Hero Cosmetics, which provide entry into premium personal care. In Q2 2026, TheraBreath delivered over 20% consumption growth, lifting category market share to 25% with significant remaining runway given a 14% household penetration rate versus 65% for the broader oral care category.
However, CHD's moat is classified as narrow rather than wide due to structural competitive boundaries. The Consumer Domestic segment generates 76.97% of consolidated sales ($4,774.8M of $6,203.2M in FY2025), leaving the business heavily reliant on mature U.S. categories. In fabric care, consumption was flattish in Q2 2026 when promotional activities were skipped. Furthermore, larger peers such as Procter & Gamble (gross margin 50.87%) and Colgate-Palmolive (gross margin 60.43%) deploy larger marketing budgets, requiring CHD to maintain advertising at or above 11% of sales and bounding operating margin expansion.
The durability of the moat is further safeguarded by CHD's flexible manufacturing strategy. With FY2025 capital expenditures at $122.4M and guided FY2026 capex of approximately $130M, capex intensity remains near 2% of sales. This allows the firm to achieve free cash flow of $1,093.0M while avoiding heavy fixed-cost obligations. Consequently, CHD earns an ROIC of 12.99% that exceeds its computed WACC of 7.41%, but absence of high switching costs prevents assignment of a wide moat rating.
01Brand Intangible Assets and Shelf Placement — Church & Dwight possesses strong brand equity anchored by the 175-year-old ARM & HAMMER trademark across domestic value staples, complemented by high-growth specialty consumer brands. In Q2 2026, TheraBreath expanded market share by 4.5 points to 25%, establishing itself as the number-two mouthwash brand in the U.S. while household penetration stands at only 14% compared to 65% for the overall category. This equity secures favorable retail shelf placement across mass, club, and grocery channels.Wide
02Scale Distribution and Low-Cost Co-Packing Network — CHD operates an asset-light, hybrid manufacturing and distribution model that concentrates capital on high-velocity core facilities while utilizing third-party co-packers for flexible volume scaling. This infrastructure supported $4,774.8M of Consumer Domestic revenue in FY2025 out of $6,203.2M consolidated sales with annual of only $122.4M (1.97% intensity), creating structural distribution cost advantages over sub-scale competitors.
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
Scale Peer Promotional and Affordability Pressure from PG and CL
high
12-24 months
Management defends shelf presence by maintaining brand marketing investment at or above 11% of sales and executing trade promotion optimization programs.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($80.30). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $742.5M after modeled reinvestment of $101.3M, with terminal value at 79.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base scenario reflects the modal operating trajectory. Consumer Domestic anchors consolidated revenue with steady volume compounding in specialty personal care offsetting flattish volume trends in mature laundry categories. Management achieves guided gross margin expansion through continuous productivity and trade optimization, while holding brand marketing at guided levels relative to sales to defend shelf space against scale peer affordability campaigns. Cash flow conversion remains robust, supporting modest annual dividend increases and disciplined bolt-on acquisitions.
Full-year adjusted gross margin expansion exceeds through sustained productivity and favorable product mix
§7 Árbol de decisión de resultadosEN
Superado
Upgrade the rating; Take advantage of any post-earnings share price strength to trim portfolio weight, re-examine organic sales cadence across core fabric care, and verify whether gross margin gains can withstand peer promotional counter-offensives.
Disparador: Consolidated organic sales growth and adjusted diluted earnings per share tracking above the upper end of full-year guidance, driven by sustained double-digit volume expansion in specialty oral care and adjusted gross margin expansion exceeding guided levels.
An earnings beat driven by market share expansion in premium personal care and successful productivity offsets would confirm operational resilience. However, because shares at $97.90 already trade well above Fair value $80.30 and offer an implied return of -18.0%, valuation multiples remain stretched. Reaching Potential value $88.70 would require sustained double-digit international acceleration and flawless domestic execution, so the house rating would move to Hold.
En línea
Maintain Reduce; Maintain disciplined underweight positioning, monitor promotional discounting levels across mass retail channels, and track working capital discipline as second-half shipping volumes normalize.
Disparador: Consolidated organic sales growth and adjusted earnings per share matching guidance midpoints, with adjusted gross margin expanding within the guided range and marketing spend held at or above the guided target percentage of sales.
Meeting consensus expectations confirms steady volume compounding in fast-growing brands alongside flattish mature domestic categories. With operating profit and cash conversion tracking in line with house forecast schedules, the fundamental thesis remains intact, but the share price at $97.90 continues to trade at a substantial premium to Fair value $80.30.
Fallo
Downgrade the rating; Downgrade the position to Sell, accelerate portfolio exit to protect capital against multiple derating, and reassess domestic household penetration and private-label competitive encroachment.
Disparador: Consolidated organic sales growth falling below guided targets due to domestic volume declines or unrecovered transportation and commodity cost inflation, compressing adjusted gross margin below guided expansion.
An earnings miss resulting from peer promotional discounting in core laundry or unabsorbed freight premiums would falsify margin durability assumptions. Under this outcome, operating margin assumptions would require downward revision toward historical troughs, causing terminal valuation multiples to derate toward mature peer levels and widening the negative gap between $97.90 and Fair value $80.30.
Calidad de los beneficios
Earnings quality remains high, characterized by strong cash flow conversion where cash flow from operations consistently exceeds net income. Free cash flow generation benefits from low capital expenditure intensity and disciplined working capital management. Revenue recognition is supported by steady sell-in and sell-through cadence across major retail partners, with inventory levels closely managed and absence of aggressive accruals or non-operating adjustments.
Evolución de las estimaciones
Post-earnings analyst estimate revisions have been modest and mixed across the forecast horizon. Near-term full-year adjusted earnings estimates saw fractional downward adjustments following transitory geopolitical freight and commodity cost disclosures, while medium-term revenue forecasts reflect steady volume compounding from acquired brands offset by tempered category growth expectations in mature laundry.
ActualManagement guides for expansion across the full year, supported by positive price and product mix and ongoing manufacturing efficiency initiatives.
Por qué importa
Measures management ability to offset freight and raw material inflation via productivity and trade optimization, directly determining operating margin progression.
02
Métrica:
Consumer Domestic Organic Sales Growth
ActualVolume growth in personal care remains healthy while mature laundry consumption remains flattish when promotional events are skipped.
Cash flow execution is a defining operational strength of Church & Dwight. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1,215.4M against GAAP net income of $736.8M, delivering an exceptional cash conversion ratio of ~1.65x. Free cash flow of $1,093.0M reflects minimal capital absorption, with maintenance capex estimated at $85.7M. For FY2026, management raised operating cash flow guidance to approximately $1.18B, which, after deducting guided capex of ~$130M, indicates free cash flow exceeding $1.04B, ensuring strong dividend coverage and funding internal reinvestment needs.5
Returns on capital remain structurally protected by power brands and low capital intensity, but substantial multiple expansion is limited given that current valuation (forward P/E of 23.36x) already prices in this spread.
CHD generates an ROIC of 12.99%, maintaining an economic spread of 558 basis points above its computed WACC of 7.41% and 528 basis points above its moderate cost of equity of 7.71%.
High Cash Flow Conversion Anchors Capital-Light Model
Ingresos más recientes6203,2 M US$CAGR de ingresos +6,6 %
Margen operativo17,4 %10 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente1093 M US$FY2025
Deuda neta1796,1 M US$FY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.30 jun 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ingresos1530 M US$Coste de ventas−836,1 M US$Beneficio bruto693,9 M US$Gastos operativos−417,5 M US$Beneficio operativo276,4 M US$Partidas no operativas e impuestos−73,6 M US$Beneficio neto202,8 M US$
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
1.530.000.000 US$
Coste de ventas
836.100.000 US$
Beneficio bruto
693.900.000 US$
Gastos operativos
417.500.000 US$
Beneficio operativo
276.400.000 US$
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-73.600.000 US$
Beneficio neto
202.800.000 US$
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales8912,4 M US$Efectivo409 M US$Activos corrientes1597 M US$Pasivos totales4910,2 M US$Pasivos corrientes1497,7 M US$Patrimonio neto4002,2 M US$
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
8.912.400.000 US$
Efectivo
409.000.000 US$
Activos corrientes
1.597.000.000 US$
Pasivos totales
4.910.200.000 US$
Pasivos corrientes
1.497.700.000 US$
Patrimonio neto
4.002.200.000 US$
Puente de flujo de cajaCómo el flujo de caja operativo se convirtió en flujo de caja libre en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Conciliación del flujo operativo
Beneficio neto736,8 M US$Depreciación y amortización+247,4 M US$Compensación basada en acciones+58 M US$Otros ajustes operativos+173,2 M US$Flujo de caja operativo1215,4 M US$
Conciliación del efectivo inicial al final
Efectivo inicial964,1 M US$Flujo de caja operativo+1215,4 M US$Flujo de inversión−616,9 M US$Flujo de financiación−1162,4 M US$Efecto del tipo de cambio+8,8 M US$Efectivo final409 M US$
1215,4 M US$ − 122,4 M US$Flujo de caja libre 1093 M US$
Datos del puente de flujo de caja
Beneficio neto
736.800.000 US$
Entrada operativa
1.215.400.000 US$
Depreciación y amortización
247.400.000 US$
Compensación basada en acciones
58.000.000 US$
Otros ajustes operativos
173.200.000 US$
Flujo de caja operativo
1.215.400.000 US$
Efectivo disponible
2.188.300.000 US$
Efectivo inicial
964.100.000 US$
Efecto del tipo de cambio
8.800.000 US$
Salida de inversión
616.900.000 US$
Capex
122.400.000 US$
Otras actividades de inversión
494.500.000 US$
Salida de financiación
1.162.400.000 US$
Efectivo final
409.000.000 US$
Flujo de inversión
-616.900.000 US$
Flujo de financiación
-1.162.400.000 US$
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
6203,2 M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción
Consumer Domestic4774,8 M US$77 %+0,9 % interanual
Consumer International1129,4 M US$18,2 %+5,4 % interanual
Specialty Products Division299 M US$4,8 %−1,4 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-12 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
Consumer Domestic
4774,8 M US$
77 %
0,9 %
Consumer International
1129,4 M US$
18,2 %
5,4 %
Specialty Products Division
299 M US$
4,8 %
-1,4 %
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-10-08.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
3493,1 M US$
841,2 M US$
459 M US$
655,3 M US$
605,5 M US$
49,8 M US$
107,6 M US$
16 M US$
400 M US$
183 M US$
—
-354,6 M US$
-439,6 M US$
—
187,8 M US$
187,8 M US$
1120,2 M US$
20,7 %
—
4,9 %
—
2017-12-31
3776,2 M US$
870,7 M US$
743,4 M US$
681,5 M US$
636,5 M US$
45 M US$
125,4 M US$
18,1 M US$
200 M US$
190,4 M US$
—
-1303,4 M US$
698,9 M US$
187,8 M US$
278,9 M US$
278,9 M US$
2103,4 M US$
19,4 %
—
5,0 %
—
2018-12-31
4145,9 M US$
940 M US$
568,6 M US$
763,6 M US$
703,2 M US$
60,4 M US$
141,1 M US$
23,3 M US$
200 M US$
213,3 M US$
—
-112,1 M US$
-609 M US$
278,9 M US$
316,7 M US$
316,7 M US$
2105,3 M US$
19,1 %
—
4,6 %
—
2019-12-31
4357,7 M US$
1023,7 M US$
615,9 M US$
864,5 M US$
790,8 M US$
73,7 M US$
176,4 M US$
20,8 M US$
250 M US$
224,1 M US$
—
-553,5 M US$
-472,9 M US$
316,7 M US$
155,7 M US$
155,7 M US$
1810,2 M US$
19,3 %
—
3,5 %
—
2020-12-31
4895,8 M US$
1224,5 M US$
785,9 M US$
990,3 M US$
891,4 M US$
98,9 M US$
189,7 M US$
21,5 M US$
300 M US$
237,3 M US$
—
-608,1 M US$
-360,1 M US$
155,7 M US$
183,1 M US$
192,1 M US$
1812,5 M US$
21,0 %
—
2,9 %
—
2021-12-31
5190,1 M US$
1305,3 M US$
827,5 M US$
993,8 M US$
875 M US$
118,8 M US$
219,1 M US$
23,7 M US$
500 M US$
247,5 M US$
—
-682 M US$
-252,1 M US$
183,1 M US$
240,6 M US$
240,6 M US$
2310,1 M US$
20,8 %
—
3,4 %
—
2022-12-31
5375,6 M US$
831,9 M US$
413,9 M US$
885,2 M US$
706,4 M US$
178,8 M US$
219 M US$
32,3 M US$
0 US$
255 M US$
119,9 M US$
-728,6 M US$
-120,9 M US$
240,6 M US$
270,3 M US$
270,3 M US$
2599,5 M US$
11,1 %
—
5,8 %
—
2023-12-31
5867,9 M US$
1057,4 M US$
755,6 M US$
1030,6 M US$
807,1 M US$
223,5 M US$
225,2 M US$
63,6 M US$
300,1 M US$
266,5 M US$
-270,6 M US$
-234,3 M US$
-725,6 M US$
270,3 M US$
344,5 M US$
344,5 M US$
2402,1 M US$
18,0 %
—
6,1 %
—
2024-12-31
6107,1 M US$
1090,4 M US$
585,3 M US$
1156,2 M US$
976,4 M US$
179,8 M US$
239,1 M US$
59,2 M US$
0 US$
277 M US$
-208,2 M US$
-183,3 M US$
-343,4 M US$
344,5 M US$
964,1 M US$
964,1 M US$
2204,6 M US$
13,2 %
—
7,0 %
—
2025-12-31
6203,2 M US$
1299,5 M US$
736,8 M US$
1215,4 M US$
1093 M US$
122,4 M US$
247,4 M US$
58 M US$
900 M US$
287,2 M US$
0 US$
-616,9 M US$
-1162,4 M US$
964,1 M US$
409 M US$
409 M US$
2205,1 M US$
17,4 %
—
6,2 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.CHD
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable80,3 US$Report-date price97,9 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión64 / 100
Kenvue Inc.KVUE
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable18,17 US$Report-date price17,2 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión63 / 100
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.EL
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable51,63 US$Report-date price91,97 US$
Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) trades at 23.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 18.5x compares with a peer median of 15.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Kenvue Inc., The Estee Lauder Companies Inc., Colgate-Palmolive Company and The Procter & Gamble Company, as of 2026-10-08.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Expansion
The consumer defensive industry exhibits disciplined capital intensity, evidenced by an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.07 and industry capex-to-revenue of 1.1%. Church & Dwight maintains an aligned capital profile with FY2025 capex of $122.4M on $6,203.2M revenue (1.97% of sales) and guided FY2026 capex of approximately $130M. Because comprehensive third-party supplier lead-time and industry utilization data are unavailable, the capital cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.5,7
Ciclo alcista
Under a bull cycle, consumer flight to value during economic uncertainty accelerates ARM & HAMMER household market share gains, while rapid distribution expansion in TheraBreath (25% market share, 14% penetration) and international sales (up 9% in Q2 2026) drive consolidated organic growth toward 5%, enabling gross margin expansion beyond 120 bps.
Ciclo bajista
Under a bear cycle, persistent promotional discounting by scale peers (PG, CL) investing in affordability limits pricing power, while unrecovered Middle East freight and input costs ($30M headwind) compress gross margins below 44.0%, stalling adjusted EPS growth.
Tendencias seculares
Tendencia
Impacto
Nota
Shift Toward Value-Tier Household Staples
positive
Inflation-weary consumers actively seek trusted value alternatives in essential home care categories, benefiting ARM & HAMMER laundry and baking soda franchises.
Premiumization and Health Consciousness in Personal Care
positive
Consumer demand for specialized, efficacious health and wellness products drives rapid penetration gains for TheraBreath (consumption +20%, share reaching 25%) and Hero acne care.
Posicionamiento
Church & Dwight positions itself as a balanced provider of value essentials and premium fast-growing personal care. Its FY2025 operating margin of 17.37% sits below the industry operating margin benchmark of 18.8% and peer leaders Colgate-Palmolive (20.97%) and Procter & Gamble (22.09%). This creates headroom for productivity-driven margin expansion toward 17.80%, but exposes CHD to market share risk if peers accelerate affordability campaigns.3,7
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
0-1%
Given that CHD trades at $97.90 against a synthesized Fair value of $80.30 (implied return of -17.98%), the risk-reward profile is skewed negatively. Under our Reduce rating, an underweight allocation of 0-1% is recommended for diversified equity portfolios. Existing holders should systematically trim positions into strength, while uninvested capital should remain on the sidelines until market price offers an adequate margin of safety.4
Riesgo
Risk management strategy dictates proactive exposure reduction given Church & Dwight's 21.9% valuation premium over Fair value of $80.30. Portfolio managers should enforce trailing stops at 5.0%, trim exposure on any tactical rally toward the 52-week high of $106.04, and maintain strict quarterly monitoring of gross margin and domestic volume metrics against established falsification thresholds.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
$80.30 (Fair Value Midpoint)
Initial Re-evaluation / Selective Accumulation
Synthesized house Fair value where forward P/E normalizes near 20x, eliminating the current valuation premium and aligning price with intrinsic earnings power.
Lower boundary of the compositefair value range, providing a ~15% discount to Fair value and an attractive margin of safety against competitive and inflationary headwinds.
Accelerate trimming toward complete exit; signals unrecovered input inflation ($30M headwind) or debilitating promotional discounting against CL (60.43% gross margin).3,5
§12 Perspectivas de inversoresEN
Value-Oriented Investor
Avoid
With shares trading at USD 97.90 against our Fair value of USD 80.30 on October 8, 2026, the stock trades at a 21.92% premium and 23.36x forward earnings. The lack of any margin of safety and negative implied return of -17.98% make the risk/reward profile unattractive for disciplined value allocators.4
Income-Focused Investor
Hold
Church & Dwight delivers strong cash conversion ($1,215.4M operating cash flow in FY2025 and guided $1.18B in FY2026) with modest capital expenditure requirements (~2% of sales), securing the dividend payout. Existing income-oriented holders may maintain existing positions for dividend compounding, but new capital allocation should be avoided.5,7
Growth and Momentum Investor
Avoid
Consolidated organic sales growth guided at 4% to 5% and mature laundry volume stagnation do not justify an elevated multiple of 23.36x forward earnings. With Batiste losing 1.4 share points in the U.S., multiple compression risks outweigh growth prospects.4,5
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Reducir
We recommend a Reduce rating on Church & Dwight Co. Inc. As of October 8, 2026, the stock trades at USD 97.90, representing a 21.92% premium to our Fair value estimate of USD 80.30 and an implied return of -17.98%. Current valuation multiples fail to compensate investors for rising promotional intensity and domestic category maturity.4
While execution across acquired brands TheraBreath and Hero remains solid, trading at 23.36x forward earnings leaves no cushion against aggressive affordability campaigns by Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive or unrecovered freight cost pressures. Investors should reduce position size into share price rallies.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-08 · Published 2026-10-08 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Caso bajista
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
CHD trades at a forward P/E of 23.36x versus peer median forward P/E of 20.74x and Kenvue at 14.26x. As organic growth slows due to mature laundry stagnation and Batiste share losses, valuation derates 20% from 21.0x to below 16.8x.4,5
Consumer Domestic generates 76.97% of consolidated sales ($4,774.8M of $6,203.2M). A domestic spending contraction combined with distribution saturation across TheraBreath and Hero slows 5-year CAGR by 500 bps below the modeled 3.5%-4.27% trajectory.1,7,8
FV impact
-2.6%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Consumer Domestic Organic Sales Growth
Signals mature category volume stagnation in the core domestic segment ($4,774.8M in FY2025), demoting consolidated top-line growth assumptions.
Allocating growth capital toward fast-expanding acquisitions including TheraBreath oral care and Miss Mouth's stain remover while optimizing fabric care promotional timing.5
Input Cost Inflation and Geopolitical Freight Disruptions
medium
6-18 months
Productivity programs targeting 100 to 120 basis points of gross margin improvement to absorb the guided $30M Middle East conflict and logistics headwind.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (13,16 US$) plus discounted terminal value (50,96 US$) minus signed per current share (7,57 US$) equals the 56,55 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Under the Bull scenario, international consumer distribution expands rapidly across Europe and Latin America, while domestic market share gains in TheraBreath and Hero accelerate as household penetration closes the gap toward broader category averages. Manufacturing productivity programs and trade optimization deliver gross margin expansion surpassing guidance, lifting operating margins beyond historical averages and driving superior free cash flow compounding.
Por qué importa
Consumer Domestic represents the majority of consolidated revenue; any volume slowdown directly compresses overall top-line compounding and cash conversion.
03
Métrica:
TheraBreath Market Share and Penetration
ActualConsumption is growing rapidly with market share reaching the number-two category position, while household penetration remains well below overall category levels.
Por qué importa
High-growth oral care brand represents a core driver of premium volume growth and domestic gross margin accretion.
Church & Dwight's capital allocation balances progressive dividend distributions, disciplined bolt-on acquisitions, and conservative balance-sheet leverage. In FY2025, capital expenditures were held to $122.4M on revenue of $6,203.2M, and FY2026 capex is guided at approximately $130M. Total debt stands at $2,428.3M against an equity market capitalization of $23.2B, representing a conservative debt weight of 9.47%. Management continues to prioritize asset-light bolt-on brand acquisitions, including TheraBreath, Hero, and the recent acquisition of Miss Mouth's stain remover, while returning cash via annual dividends ($1.23 per share).
Disciplined capex near 2% of sales allows CHD to fund bolt-on acquisitions and progressive dividends without stressing leverage.
Domestic Franchise Drives Operating Profit but Limits Diversification
Consumer Domestic contributed $920.8M of operating profit on $4,774.8M of sales in FY2025, representing 85.4% of total segment operating profit and 76.97% of consolidated sales ($6,203.2M).
Consolidated results are overwhelmingly tethered to U.S. consumer sentiment and retail inventory trends.
Operating Margin Improvement Constrained by Peer Reinvestment Requirements
FY2025 EBIT margin of 17.37% ($1,077.6M EBIT on $6,203.2M revenue) trails peers Colgate-Palmolive (20.97%) and Procter & Gamble (22.09%).
While gross margin is guided to expand 100 to 120 bps, marketing spend of >=11% of sales caps operating margin expansion near 17.80%.
Colgate-Palmolive CompanyCL
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable74 US$Report-date price86,06 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión63 / 100
The Procter & Gamble CompanyPG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable126,47 US$Report-date price145,58 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión56 / 100
Margen
CHD
Church & Dwight Co. Inc.
$23.2B
23.4x
3.7x
18.5x
17.0%
—
KVUE
Kenvue Inc.
$34.0B
14.3x
2.2x
11.8x
15.6%
19.4%
EL
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.
$34.3B
24.1x
2.3x
16.3x
4.7%
7.0%
CL
Colgate-Palmolive Company
$70.2B
21.5x
3.3x
15.3x
267.4%
21.0%
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
$343.6B
20.0x
3.9x
14.9x
30.3%
22.1%
Omnichannel and Private Label Retailer Competition
negative
Mass retailers and club channels expanding private-label offerings and demanding increased trade promotional spend pressure branded market share, as seen in Batiste losing 1.4 share points in Q2 2026.
