Con tu permiso, usamos análisis limitados y respetuosos con la privacidad para entender qué recorridos de investigación funcionan. No usamos rastreadores publicitarios ni grabación de sesiones. Puedes cambiar esta opción en Preferencias. Lee la Política de privacidad.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CME — frequently asked questions
Is CME Group Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, CME screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 302 USD versus our fair value of 261 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 341 USD. That implies roughly 13.6% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives CME a fair value of 261 USD and a potential value of 341 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for CME Group Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CME now?
Our latest published rating for CME, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Reduce. CME Group Inc. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of 302 USD versus fair value of 261 USD; potential value is 341 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CME?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents CME Group Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CME's rating?
Our latest published rating for CME, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 261 USD, the potential value of 341 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (302 USD).
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.
§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosReduce
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$302.37
Valor razonable
$261.16
Valor potencial
$341.31
A fecha de
Fecha de cotización no registrada
Por qué puede funcionar
Bull: Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging activity and volume across CME's product suite.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
ZIRP Return: A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.
CME Group exhibits a perfect textbook archetype fit as a Mature Compounder with highly predictable margins and monopolistic barriers. However, the stock is priced for perfection, trading at an extreme PEG premium relative to peers and assuming 8.5% structural growth.
CME Group exhibits a perfect textbook archetype fit as a Mature Compounder with highly predictable margins and monopolistic barriers. However, the stock is priced for perfection, trading at an extreme PEG premium relative to peers and assuming 8.5% structural growth.
Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
Cycle upside
High macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging.
Recomendación de la casa
Reduce based on an overextended valuation that leaves no margin of safety for a mature exchange operator.
Descripción general de la empresa
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatility, dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression.
A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatility, dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression toward the mid-teens.
Cómo puede fallar esta tesis
ZIRP Return
20%· Medium
A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.
FV impact
Drives fair value to $181.11, a 40% downside from current prices.
Regulatory Fee Capping
10%· Low
Aggressive federal intervention caps market data and clearing fees, structurally limiting high-margin streams.
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
Operational expenses outpacing transaction revenues impairs structural profitability, signaling that severe volume compression or cost inflation is eroding high-margin clearing returns.
Actual:Operating margin was 64.9% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta siFalls below 60.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
02
§3 Foso competitivoEN
Wide
Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
Beneficio económico
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivat — Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.Wide
02Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barr — Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.Wide
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
Regulatory intervention limiting data fees.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) or blockchain trading alternatives.
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($261.16). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging activity and volume across CME's product suite. The company pushes through pricing increases uninhibited, scaling margins further and driving low-double-digit EPS growth.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Ingresos más recientes6520,6 MCAGR de ingresos +8,6 %
Margen operativo64,9 %5 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente4193,6 MFY2025
Caja neta994,6 MFY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ingresos6520,6 MCoste de ventas−907 MBeneficio bruto5613,6 MGastos operativos−1384,1 MBeneficio operativo4229,5 MPartidas no operativas e impuestos−157,3 MBeneficio neto4072,2 M
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
6.520.600.000
Coste de ventas
907.000.000
Beneficio bruto
5.613.600.000
Gastos operativos
1.384.100.000
Beneficio operativo
4.229.500.000
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-157.300.000
Beneficio neto
4.072.200.000
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales198,4 mil MEfectivo4416,9 MActivos corrientes165,4 mil MPasivos totales169,7 mil MPasivos corrientes160,3 mil MPatrimonio neto28,7 mil M
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
198.424.200.000
Efectivo
4.416.900.000
Activos corrientes
165.359.300.000
Pasivos totales
169.696.000.000
Pasivos corrientes
160.296.700.000
Patrimonio neto
28.728.200.000
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-05-20.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2021-12-31
4689,7 M
3925,9 M
2636,4 M
2402,4 M
2275,2 M
127,2 M
385,4 M
75,2 M
—
2189,3 M
0
—
—
—
—
2834,9 M
3445,1 M
56,4 %
—
4,2 %
—
2022-12-31
5019,4 M
4015,6 M
2691 M
3056 M
2966,3 M
89,7 M
362,6 M
84,3 M
—
2633,5 M
-15,2 M
—
—
—
—
2720,1 M
3438,4 M
60,1 %
—
6,5 %
—
2023-12-31
5578,9 M
4665,6 M
3226,2 M
3453,8 M
3377,4 M
76,4 M
352,6 M
82,9 M
0
3235,5 M
-16,4 M
—
—
—
—
2912 M
3425,4 M
61,6 %
—
6,7 %
—
2024-12-31
6130,1 M
5039,1 M
3525,8 M
3690,5 M
3596,5 M
94 M
336,8 M
89,5 M
0
3584,2 M
0
—
—
—
—
2892,4 M
3428 M
64,1 %
—
7,7 %
—
2025-12-31
6520,6 M
5834,8 M
4072,2 M
4277,1 M
4193,6 M
83,5 M
330,9 M
94,8 M
266,1 M
3933 M
-9,4 M
—
—
—
—
4416,9 M
3422,3 M
64,9 %
—
6,8 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
CME Group Inc.CME
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable261,16 US$Report-date price302,37 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión67 / 100
S&P Global Inc.SPGI
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable355,55 US$Report-date price389,35 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión63 / 100
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.ICE
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable133,03 US$Report-date price154,31 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión62 / 100
CME Group Inc.CME
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable261,16 US$Report-date price302,37 US$
Actual:Revenue growth was 6.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta siSlows to 2.0% or lower over any fiscal year
03
Interest Rate Derivative Trading Volumes
Interest rate products represent the primary earnings engine, meaning sustained activity declines directly compress transactional clearing revenues and diminish market depth.
Actual:Core derivative trading volumes sensitive to rate volatility as of 2026-05-20
Alerta siContracts by more than 15.0% year-over-year across two consecutive quarters
04
Market Data Fee Regulatory Capping
Statutory limitations on high-margin data services restrict recurring revenue diversification, eliminating predictable non-transactional cash flows that insulate operating income during cyclical volume downturns.
Actual:Uncapped proprietary market data and clearing fee structure as of 2026-05-20
Alerta siEnactment of federal statutory fee caps or mandatory fee reductions within 24 months
05
Core Commodity Futures Market Share
Liquidity fragmentation to alternative trading venues breaks the self-reinforcing network effects of centralized clearing, forcing defensive fee cuts and permanently impairing pricing power.
Actual:Dominant clearinghouse position across agricultural and energy commodities as of 2026-05-20
Alerta siLoss of more than 5.0% market share to competing venues within a twelve-month period
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
CME Group benefits from near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives. Its vertically integrated clearinghouse acts as a massive competitive barrier. As a mature compounder, it generates extraordinary margins and massive free cash flow.
ActualRevenue growth was 6.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Por qué importa
Warning level: Slows to 2.0% or lower over any fiscal year. Top-line deceleration undermines operating leverage and signals transactional volume fatigue, triggering valuation multiple compression toward historical cyclical trough ranges.
03
Métrica:
Interest Rate Derivative Trading Volumes
ActualCore derivative trading volumes sensitive to rate volatility as of 2026-05-20
Por qué importa
Warning level: Contracts by more than 15.0% year-over-year across two consecutive quarters. Interest rate products represent the primary earnings engine, meaning sustained activity declines directly compress transactional clearing revenues and diminish market depth.
04
Métrica:
Market Data Fee Regulatory Capping
ActualUncapped proprietary market data and clearing fee structure as of 2026-05-20
Por qué importa
Warning level: Enactment of federal statutory fee caps or mandatory fee reductions within 24 months. Statutory limitations on high-margin data services restrict recurring revenue diversification, eliminating predictable non-transactional cash flows that insulate operating income during cyclical volume downturns.
05
Métrica:
Core Commodity Futures Market Share
ActualDominant clearinghouse position across agricultural and energy commodities as of 2026-05-20
Por qué importa
Warning level: Loss of more than 5.0% market share to competing venues within a twelve-month period. Liquidity fragmentation to alternative trading venues breaks the self-reinforcing network effects of centralized clearing, forcing defensive fee cuts and permanently impairing pricing power.
Moody's CorporationMCO
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable327,35 US$Report-date price441,36 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión65 / 100
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable70,15 US$Report-date price91,98 US$
