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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CPB — frequently asked questions
Is The Campbell's Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-21, CPB looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 19,9 USD versus our fair value of 26,8 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 48,4 USD. That implies roughly 34.9% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-21, gives CPB a fair value of 26,8 USD and a potential value of 48,4 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Campbell's Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CPB now?
Our latest published rating for CPB, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Strong Buy. The Campbell's Company looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 19,9 USD versus fair value of 26,8 USD; potential value is 48,4 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CPB?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-21 documents The Campbell's Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CPB's rating?
Our latest published rating for CPB, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 26,8 USD, the potential value of 48,4 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (19,9 USD).
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§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosStrong Buy
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$19.86
Valor razonable
$26.80
Valor potencial
$48.35
A fecha de
2026-10-20
Por qué puede funcionar
The enterprise efficiency program targeting $350M in incremental savings through FY2030 provides a clear operational driver to expand operating margin from 8.74% back toward historical double-digit profitability, creating substantial earnings leverage as Snacks volumes stabilize.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
Persistent center-store private-label price competition and aggressive trade promotion demands from top retail customers.
The Campbell's Company (CPB) carries a Strong Buy rating with a Fair value of $26.80, representing 34.9% upside from $19.86. The investment thesis centers on non-cyclical cash flow from core meals franchises, volume stabilization in snacks, and significant margin expansion driven by an enterprise efficiency program as balance sheet deleveraging proceeds.5
The Campbell's Company is navigating near-term center-store packaged food headwinds, including input cost inflation, consumer trade-down to private-label offerings, and retail grocer promotional demands. These dynamics compressed FY2026 operating margin to 8.74% and led management to guide FY2027 gross margin down an additional 50 to 100 bps. Furthermore, organic sales in Snacks fell 4% in FY2026 and are projected down high single digits in Q1 FY2027, reflecting elasticity friction and consumer price .
In response, management is executing decisive strategic interventions to protect profitability and strengthen the balance sheet. A comprehensive enterprise cost savings program is targeting $500M in cumulative cost reductions by fiscal 2030 ($350M incremental), focused on direct procurement, overhead restructuring, and supply chain network optimization. Concurrently, the Board reset the quarterly dividend by 36% to $0.25 per share ($1.00 annualized), conserving substantial discretionary cash flow to accelerate debt paydown on $7,137M of total debt.4,5
At 11.88x forward P/E, the stock trades at an attractive discount to Fair value $26.80. Supported by robust annual operating cash flow of $1,039M and resilient staple demand in Meals & Beverages ($5,928M FY2026 revenue), the risk-reward profile is skewed favorably for patient long-term investors as margin recovery unfolds.4,6,7
The stock trades at an undemanding 11.88x forward P/E, reflecting overly pessimistic assumptions regarding center-store competitive headwinds relative to Fair value $26.80.4
Substantial Operational Margin Expansion Runway
The enterprise cost savings program targeting $350M in incremental savings through FY2030 provides a clear operational roadmap to lift operating margins from fiscal 2026 trough levels back toward double-digit profitability.5
Strong Cash Generation and Accelerated Deleveraging
Robust operating cash flow of $1,039M and a reduced annual dividend burden generate strong discretionary cash flow to systematically de-risk the balance sheet.6
Recomendación de la casa
The Campbell's Company is a compelling turnaround and compounding opportunity where resilient core staple cash generation, a disciplined dividend reset, and a structured enterprise efficiency program create significant upside toward intrinsic Fair value $26.80.5
Descripción general de la empresa
The Campbell's Company (NASDAQ: CPB) is a leading North American packaged food manufacturer headquartered in Camden, New Jersey. The company manufactures and markets branded convenience food products across two primary operating divisions: Meals & Beverages and Snacks. In FY2026, the company generated $9,744M in consolidated net sales.
The Meals & Beverages segment generated $5,928M in FY2026 net sales, offering condensed and ready-to-serve soups under the Campbell's brand, broths and stocks under Swanson and Pacific Foods, pasta sauces under Prego and Rao's, and beverages under V8. The Snacks segment generated $3,816M in FY2026 net sales, comprising Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, and fresh bakery, Goldfish crackers, Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, and Late July tortilla chips. The company sells primarily through retail grocers, mass merchandisers, club stores, and convenience channels across the United States and Canada.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
Under severe macroeconomic and competitive stress where retail customer concessions force gross margin below 27.00% and Snacks organic volume declines persist beyond the high-single-digit contraction guided for Q1 FY2027, consolidated operating profit would remain depressed near $750M. This would delay balance sheet deleveraging on $7,137M of total debt and prevent valuation multiple expansion. However, the company's decision to reset the quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share ($1.00 annualized) preserves roughly $170M in discretionary cash flow annually, while defensive non-cyclical demand in core Meals & Beverages ($5,928M FY2026 revenue) and ongoing cost savings execution provide robust solvency protection.
In the Bear case, persistent consumer trade-down to private-label offerings and aggressive retail grocer trade promotion demands depress center-store volumes. Input cost inflation outpaces procurement savings, leaving gross margins depressed below 27.50% and operating margin trapped below 9.00%. Elevated debt service on $7,137M total debt limits multiple expansion, causing the valuation multiple to align with center-store packaged food peers such as Conagra at 9.64x forward P/E.
Cómo puede fallar esta tesis
Operating margin contraction from retail grocer promotional demands and persistent commodity input cost inflation
The Campbell's Company maintains a narrow economic moat grounded in brand intangibles and scale-driven distribution across North American retail grocery aisles. The company's portfolio features dominant category anchors including Campbell's condensed and ready-to-serve soups, Swanson broths, Rao's premium pasta sauces, and Pepperidge Farm baked goods, which together generated $9,744M in consolidated FY2026 net sales. These iconic trademarks create durable consumer habits and top-of-mind brand recognition that insulate core product volumes from standard business cycle fluctuations.
Despite brand strength, the moat is constrained to Narrow rather than Wide due to high retail customer concentration and intense competition from private-label alternatives. In FY2026, the company's five largest retail customers represented approximately 48% of consolidated net sales, with Walmart alone accounting for 22%,. This concentration limits pricing power, requiring ongoing trade promotion allowances to preserve prime eye-level shelf space and end-cap merchandising.
Scale advantages in direct-store-delivery logistics and enterprise procurement provide tangible cost efficiencies relative to smaller packaged food peers. Management is leveraging this scale through a comprehensive enterprise efficiency program targeting $500M in cumulative cost savings by fiscal 2030 ($350M incremental),. These initiatives protect baseline profitability and support reinvestment in product innovation to defend market share against private-label encroachment.
Beneficio económico
FY2026 ROIC was pressured to approximately 6.09% by integration costs and inflation-driven gross margin compression, trailing the computed WACC of 6.47%. However, projected operating margin expansion toward 12.00% driven by the $500M enterprise efficiency program is expected to lift returns above capital costs over the medium term.2,5
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Brand Intangibles and Category Leadership — Iconic household franchises including Campbell's, Rao's, Pepperidge Farm, and Goldfish generate $9,744M in consolidated net sales, commanding primary shelf positioning across North American grocers.Moderate
02Scale Distribution and Logistics Network — National direct-store-delivery logistics and high-volume manufacturing scale allow efficient fulfillment across center-store aisles, supporting $1,039M in operating cash flow in FY2026.Moderate
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
Private-label displacement and aggressive promotional demands from consolidated grocery retailers.
high
12 to 24 months
Differentiating through premium brand equity in Rao's and targeted innovation in Campbell's Nourish while deploying enterprise procurement savings to fund promotional programs.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($26.80). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
In the Bull case, premium brands including Rao's and Pepperidge Farm expand market share while snacking volumes rebound faster than guided. Accelerated realization of the $500M enterprise efficiency program expands operating margins past 12.50%, allowing rapid balance sheet deleveraging and driving valuation toward the upper fair value boundary of $48.35.5
Disparador: Snacks organic net sales inflecting to positive territory and operating margin expanding toward double digits in FY2027
A faster-than-projected volume inflection in Snacks alongside operating margin expansion toward double digits would confirm that cost takeout and brand investments are accelerating the recovery ahead of base case expectations.
En línea
Maintain Strong Buy; Hold allocation steady while tracking supply chain cost savings and working capital trends.
Disparador: FY2027 adjusted EPS of $1.65 to $1.80 and gross margin contraction within guided 50 to 100 bps5
Delivering within full-year adjusted EPSguidance and containing gross margin contraction within guided ranges confirms that the turnaround remains on schedule.
Fallo
Downgrade the rating; Halt incremental capital additions and re-evaluate private-label volume elasticities.
Disparador: Gross margin contraction exceeding guided ranges and Snacks organic sales contraction persisting at high single digits in FY2027
Gross margin contraction worsening beyond guidance or prolonged high-single-digit snacking volume declines would demonstrate that competitive pricing pressure is overwhelming the efficiency program, threatening the deleveraging timeline.
Calidad de los beneficios
GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31 in FY2026 diverged from adjusted diluted EPS of $2.17 primarily due to $117M in pre-tax impairment charges on Cape Cod and Kettle Brand trademarks ($0.29 per share) and $202M in aggregate restructuring and cost savings charges ($0.51 per share). Operating cash flow remained robust at $1,039M, representing a healthy cash conversion of over 250% relative to reported net income of $403M. This cash flow resilience confirms that underlying earnings quality is sound, as core operating cash generation significantly exceeds GAAP net earnings.6
Evolución de las estimaciones
Consensus estimates were adjusted downward following the Q4 FY2026 release to incorporate management guidance of 50 to 100 bps in gross margin contraction and high-single-digit Snacks sales declines in Q1 FY2027. FY2027 consensus EPS settled at $1.70, aligning expectations with near-term supply chain headwinds before second-half efficiency benefits emerge.1,5
Métricas a vigilar antes de la publicación
01
Métrica:
Snacks Organic Net Sales and Volume Trajectory
ActualDown 6% in Q4 FY2026; guided down high single digits in Q1 FY2027.
Por qué importa
Snacks represents 39% of net sales ($3,816M in FY2026); volume stabilization is vital to halt category share erosion.7
02
Métrica:
Enterprise Cost Savings Program Execution
Actual$225M achieved under prior plan; targeting $350M incremental savings.
Por qué importa
Capturing incremental cost savings through FY2030 is the primary operational mechanism to lift toward historical double-digit profitability.
The company generated $1,039M in cash flow from operations in FY2026, compared to $1,131M in FY2025. After capital expenditures of $361M, free cash flow stood at $678M. Non-cash charges included $413M in depreciation and amortization and $117M in pre-tax impairment charges on Kettle Brand and Cape Cod trademarks. Operating cash flow conversion relative to GAAP net income of $403M exceeded 250%, demonstrating that cash generation remains resilient despite headline net income volatility. Working capital represented a moderate cash outflow of $161M, driven primarily by inventory builds that are expected to normalize as supply chain planning improves.6
Asignación de capital
Management took decisive action to realign capital allocation by resetting the quarterly dividend by 36% to $0.25 per share ($1.00 annualized). This reduction preserves approximately $170M in annual , redirecting discretionary capital toward paying down $7,137M in total debt. were managed prudently at $361M in FY2026, below industry -to-depreciation benchmarks, focusing strictly on high-return automation and network restructuring. M&A activity has transitioned to integration mode following the closing of La Regina and Sovos Brands, allowing management to prioritize debt retirement.
Return on invested capital was temporarily compressed to 6.09% in FY2026 due to inflation headwinds and Sovos acquisition debt. However, ROIC is poised to recover as operating margin expands from 8.74% toward 12.00% by FY2031 through the $500M enterprise efficiency program.
Current ROIC of 6.09% hovers near the computed WACC of 6.47%, but projected EBIT expansion toward $1.20B restores an attractive spread above capital costs.
Ingresos más recientes9744 M US$CAGR de ingresos +5,9 %
Margen operativo8,7 %10 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente678 M US$FY2026
Deuda neta6743 M US$FY2026
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.31 jul 2026
Ingresos2137 M US$Coste de ventas−1554 M US$Beneficio bruto583 M US$Gastos operativos−579 M US$Beneficio operativo4 M US$Partidas no operativas e impuestos−64 M US$Beneficio neto-60 M US$
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
2.137.000.000 US$
Coste de ventas
1.554.000.000 US$
Beneficio bruto
583.000.000 US$
Gastos operativos
579.000.000 US$
Beneficio operativo
4.000.000 US$
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-64.000.000 US$
Beneficio neto
-60.000.000 US$
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales14,9 mil M US$Efectivo132 M US$Activos corrientes2232 M US$Pasivos totales11 mil M US$Pasivos corrientes2906 M US$Patrimonio neto3904 M US$
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
14.896.000.000 US$
Efectivo
132.000.000 US$
Activos corrientes
2.232.000.000 US$
Pasivos totales
10.992.000.000 US$
Pasivos corrientes
2.906.000.000 US$
Patrimonio neto
3.904.000.000 US$
Puente de flujo de cajaCómo el flujo de caja operativo se convirtió en flujo de caja libre en FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Conciliación del flujo operativo
Beneficio neto403 M US$Depreciación y amortización+413 M US$Compensación basada en acciones+56 M US$Otros ajustes operativos+167 M US$Flujo de caja operativo1039 M US$
Conciliación del efectivo inicial al final
Efectivo inicial132 M US$Flujo de caja operativo+1039 M US$Flujo de inversión−357 M US$Flujo de financiación−419 M US$Efecto del tipo de cambio−1 M US$Efectivo final394 M US$
1039 M US$ − 361 M US$Flujo de caja libre 678 M US$
Datos del puente de flujo de caja
Beneficio neto
403.000.000 US$
Entrada operativa
1.039.000.000 US$
Depreciación y amortización
413.000.000 US$
Compensación basada en acciones
56.000.000 US$
Otros ajustes operativos
167.000.000 US$
Flujo de caja operativo
1.039.000.000 US$
Efectivo disponible
1.171.000.000 US$
Efectivo inicial
132.000.000 US$
Salida de inversión
357.000.000 US$
Salida de financiación
419.000.000 US$
Efecto del tipo de cambio
1.000.000 US$
Efectivo final
394.000.000 US$
Flujo de inversión
-357.000.000 US$
Flujo de financiación
-419.000.000 US$
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción de los ingresos totales de 2026-08-02.
9744 M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción
Meals Beverages5928 M US$60,8 %−4,1 % interanual
Snacks3816 M US$39,2 %−6,3 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-09-24 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
Meals Beverages
5928 M US$
60,8 %
-4,1 %
Snacks
3816 M US$
39,2 %
-6,3 %
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-10-21.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2017-07-30
5837 M US$
1723 M US$
887 M US$
1288 M US$
950 M US$
338 M US$
318 M US$
60 M US$
437 M US$
420 M US$
—
-368 M US$
-908 M US$
—
37 M US$
46 M US$
2499 M US$
24,5 %
—
4,6 %
—
2018-07-29
6615 M US$
867 M US$
261 M US$
1305 M US$
898 M US$
407 M US$
394 M US$
61 M US$
86 M US$
426 M US$
—
-7197 M US$
5807 M US$
37 M US$
49 M US$
59 M US$
8595 M US$
15,3 %
—
4,1 %
—
2019-07-28
8107 M US$
1427 M US$
211 M US$
1398 M US$
1014 M US$
384 M US$
446 M US$
58 M US$
0 US$
423 M US$
—
153 M US$
-1591 M US$
49 M US$
31 M US$
31 M US$
8474 M US$
12,1 %
—
3,5 %
—
2020-08-02
8691 M US$
1439 M US$
1628 M US$
1396 M US$
1097 M US$
299 M US$
328 M US$
61 M US$
0 US$
426 M US$
—
2272 M US$
-2987 M US$
31 M US$
859 M US$
859 M US$
6263 M US$
12,7 %
—
1,9 %
—
2021-08-01
8476 M US$
1863 M US$
1002 M US$
1035 M US$
760 M US$
275 M US$
317 M US$
64 M US$
36 M US$
439 M US$
—
-158 M US$
-1669 M US$
859 M US$
69 M US$
69 M US$
5112 M US$
18,2 %
—
2,4 %
—
2022-07-31
8562 M US$
1501 M US$
757 M US$
1181 M US$
939 M US$
242 M US$
337 M US$
59 M US$
167 M US$
451 M US$
176 M US$
-230 M US$
-910 M US$
69 M US$
109 M US$
109 M US$
5048 M US$
13,6 %
—
3,6 %
—
2023-07-30
9357 M US$
1703 M US$
858 M US$
1143 M US$
773 M US$
370 M US$
387 M US$
63 M US$
142 M US$
447 M US$
-138 M US$
-340 M US$
-723 M US$
109 M US$
189 M US$
189 M US$
4689 M US$
14,0 %
—
4,8 %
—
2024-07-28
9636 M US$
1417 M US$
567 M US$
1185 M US$
668 M US$
517 M US$
411 M US$
99 M US$
67 M US$
445 M US$
2442 M US$
-3128 M US$
1863 M US$
189 M US$
108 M US$
108 M US$
7542 M US$
10,4 %
—
4,7 %
—
2025-08-03
10,3 mil M US$
1575 M US$
602 M US$
1131 M US$
705 M US$
426 M US$
434 M US$
57 M US$
62 M US$
459 M US$
-356 M US$
-187 M US$
-919 M US$
108 M US$
132 M US$
132 M US$
7212 M US$
11,0 %
—
4,6 %
—
2026-08-02
9744 M US$
1273 M US$
403 M US$
1039 M US$
678 M US$
361 M US$
413 M US$
56 M US$
26 M US$
470 M US$
—
-357 M US$
-419 M US$
132 M US$
394 M US$
394 M US$
7137 M US$
8,7 %
—
5,2 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
The Campbell's CompanyCPB
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable26,8 US$Report-date price19,86 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión57 / 100
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable59,5 US$Report-date price53,59 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión55 / 100
Hormel Foods CorporationHRL
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable23,82 US$Report-date price20,83 US$
The Campbell's Company (CPB) trades at 11.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.2x compares with a peer median of 10.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Lamb Weston Holdings Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation, Conagra Brands Inc. and McCormick & Company Incorporated, as of 2026-10-21.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Contraction
Packaged food industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.3% and capex-to-depreciation at 1.34, matching Campbell's FY2026 capex of $361M against $413M in depreciation.6
Ciclo alcista
In an industry upcycle, strong consumer brand loyalty enables packaged food manufacturers to execute net pricing increases that outpace input inflation, leading to gross margin expansion and operating leverage across automated production networks.
Ciclo bajista
In a packaged food downcycle, consumer elasticity increases, leading to widespread trade-down toward private-label grocery items, while consolidated retail grocers demand steeper promotional allowances and pass-through concessions that depress manufacturer operating margins.
Tendencias seculares
Tendencia
Impacto
Nota
At-Home Meal Preparation and Cooking Trends
positive
Sustained preference for convenient cooking at home benefits core shelf-stable soup, broth, and Rao's premium pasta sauces.
Private-Label Penetration in Center-Store Aisles
negative
Consumer price sensitivity in packaged food drives selective trade-down to store-brand snacks and simple meals, requiring promotional defense.
Posicionamiento
Campbell's holds defensive market-leading positions across core cooking and soup categories ($5,928M FY2026 revenue) while navigating transitional volume friction in salty snacks ($3,816M FY2026 revenue). Its diversified brand footprint across value and premium tiers provides balance throughout the consumer spending cycle.7
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
4-6%
A Strong Buy house rating with 34.94% upside to $26.80 fair value, backed by non-cyclical cash flows ($1,039M operating CF), supports an above-benchmark portfolio weighting, balanced by the company's financial leverage of $7,137M total debt.4,6
Riesgo
Maintain position sizing strictly within the 4-6% limit to mitigate center-store packaged food customer concentration risks (top 5 customers account for 48% of sales). Monitor quarterly retail scan data for indications of shelf space changes or worsening trade spend concessions.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
At or below $19.86
Establish core primary position tranche
Captures an attractive 25.90% discount to fair value of $26.80 and an undemanding 11.88x forward P/E multiple.
Trading at 11.88x forward P/E with $1,039M in operating cash flow supporting debt reduction and a sustainable reset annualized dividend.4,6
Total Return / Growth Investor
Buy
Substantial 34.9% upside to Fair value $26.80 catalyzed by the enterprise efficiency program driving multi-year operating margin expansion.5
Defensive / Center-Store Skeptic
Hold
Center-store category competition from peers like Conagra and $7,137M total debt argue for monitoring volume elasticities before expanding exposure.3,4
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Compra fuerte
The Campbell's Company is rated Strong Buy with a Fair value of $26.80, representing 34.9% upside from $19.86.
Defensive staple cash flows in Meals & Beverages and an enterprise efficiency program provide strong operational leverage and debt reduction capacity, outweighing near-term category volume softness.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-21 · Published 2026-10-21 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Árbol de decisión de resultados
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-10-21 · Published 2026-10-21 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Caso bajista, Perspectivas de inversores
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Prolonged Snacks volume contraction and private-label displacement across center-store retail aisles
Snacks organic net sales fell 4% in FY2026 and 6% in Q4, guided down high single digits in Q1 FY2027, with full-year net sales guided down 2% to 4%.5,6,7
FV impact
-2.3%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Valuation multiple de-rating to center-store packaged food peer levels driven by high financial leverage
Peer Conagra trades at 9.64x forward P/E; CPB's $7,137M total debt and elevated balance sheet leverage warrant a comparable valuation multiple de-rating if center-store margin pressures persist.3,4
FV impact
-7.7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
snacks_organic_sales_growth
Structural share loss to private-label alternatives across salty snacks and bakery aisles.
Actual:-6% organic YoY in Q4 FY2026
Alerta si< -4.00% organic YoY over 24 months
03
retail_customer_concentration
Delisting of key SKUs or aggressive retail trade promotion clawbacks eroding realized net price realization.
Actual:48% across top 5 customers and 22% at Walmart
Alerta siWalmart share < 18% or gross margin < 27.00%
04
gross_margin_headwind
Commodity cost inflation and tariffs outpacing pricing power and procurement savings.
Actual:Guided down 50 to 100 bps for full-year FY2027
Alerta siTotal debt remaining above $7,000M through FY2027
Input cost inflation and tariff pressures compressing gross margins by guided 50 to 100 bps in FY2027.
medium
12 months
Implementing surgical 4-5% price increases on 60% of the portfolio and accelerating supply chain network optimization to capture $350M incremental savings.5
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
How this lens was calculated
Inputs used in this report
Operating margin steadily recovers toward historical double-digit levels by FY2031
Annual capital expenditures remain disciplined in line with historical run-rates
The modal expected path reflects stabilization of core Meals & Beverages net sales near $5.9B, progressive volume recovery in Snacks following guided Q1 FY2027 headwinds, and steady realization of the $350M incremental cost savings program. Operating margin normalizes from 8.74% toward double-digit profitability by FY2031, driving sustainable cash flow and debt reduction.5,6,7
Meals & Beverages delivered $5,928M in net sales, while Snacks net sales fell 6% to $3,816M.
Defensive meal and cooking franchises insulate overall enterprise earnings while management executes targeted product and marketing interventions in snacking.
Management identified $350M in incremental cost savings through FY2030 beyond the $225M already achieved.
Enterprise-wide cost savings across direct procurement and network optimization provide the operational bridge to lift operating margins from 8.74% toward 12.00%.
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable26,66 US$Report-date price14,71 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión49 / 100
McCormick & Company IncorporatedMKC
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable57,6 US$Report-date price48,72 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión63 / 100
Margen
CPB
The Campbell's Company
$5.9B
11.9x
0.6x
8.2x
10.1%
—
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.
$7.4B
15.2x
1.1x
10.5x
14.2%
9.5%
HRL
Hormel Foods Corporation
$11.3B
13.1x
0.9x
10.5x
4.3%
8.6%
CAG
Conagra Brands Inc.
$6.9B
9.6x
0.6x
8.6x
-24.9%
11.6%
MKC
McCormick & Company Incorporated
$12.8B
14.8x
1.7x
12.0x
22.6%
17.8%
Retail Customer Channel Consolidation
negative
Top 5 retail grocers controlling 48% of sales exerts heightened bargaining leverage on merchandising and promotional allowances.
Operating margin failing to expand above fiscal 2026 baseline levels
Evaluate cost program realization timeline and adjust medium-term EBIT forecast.
Balance Sheet Deleveraging Pace
Total debt remains above $7,000M at FY2027 year-end
