Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics. Fair value range: low $140, high $274, with mid-point at $201.
Stock analysis

CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $201–$274

CRWD
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-10Próxima actualización: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
View archive
Precio
$527.77
▼ -327.06 (-61.97%)
Valor razonable
$201
$201–$274
Calificación
Vender
confidence 82/100
Potencial alcista
-62.0%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$170.60
buy below · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$134.3B
P/E fwd 85.6
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Trading at ~85x forward PEG and ~27x EV/Rev, disconnected from fundamental realities.
  • Massive $1.09B SBC heavily suppresses true GAAP profitability and unit economics.
  • Target $200.71 assumes deceleration to ~12% growth and an 8x terminal multiple.
  • Reverse DCF shows consensus expectations are mathematically unsupportable.
Fair value
$201
Margin of safety
-163.0%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$527.77Price
FV $200.71
High $273.98

CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics.

  • Data network effects generated by
    Data network effects generated by the distributed Falcon platform.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated enterprise cybersecurity stacks.
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated cyber threat landscape and strict regulatory mandates drive mandatory IT budget allocations toward premium vendors.

§2 Caso bajista

Intensifying competition compresses growth to mid-teens earlier than expected. Simultaneously, stubborn SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. continuously dilutes shareholders, preventing EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. scaling and driving extreme multiple contraction.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Microsoft Price War

· High

Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.

FV impact
Severe

SBC Revolt

· Medium

Institutional investors refuse to tolerate >20% SBC/Revenue, forcing cash compensation and tanking operating cash flows.

FV impact
High

Platform Breach

· Low

A catastrophic Falcon update or architectural breach severely impairs brand trust and sinks net retention rates.

FV impact
Terminal
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
YoY revenue growth drops below 20% in the next two quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue remains anchored above 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression emerges from enterprise pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention consistently falls below the 120% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in the already distorted OCF-to-Net-Income ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Período2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Ingresos$1.45B$2.24B$3.06B$3.95B$4.81B+34.9%
Beneficio bruto$1.07B$1.64B$2.30B$2.96B$3.59B+35.4%
Beneficio operativo$-142.5M$-190.1M$-19.1M$-116.4M$-293.3M
Beneficio neto$-234.8M$-183.2M$72.2M$-15.2M$-162.5M
BPA (diluido)$-1.03$-0.79$0.37$-0.08
EBITDA$-66.0M$-40.8M$276.7M$298.8M$182.5M
I+D$371.3M$608.4M$780.3M$1.08B$1.38B+39.0%
SG&A$839.6M$1.22B$1.54B$2.00B$2.50B+31.4%

Puntuaciones de calidad

Piotroski F-score
4 / 9
Compuesto de calidad 0–9
Altman Z-score
12.78
Riesgo de quiebra (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.95
Riesgo de manipulación de beneficios
OCF / Beneficio neto
-9.92
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
-0.0%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Suscriptores individuales — desde §411 secciones más

Leer el análisis completo — 11 secciones más.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Informe completo para cada ticker cubierto
24 meses de archivo de calificaciones
Briefings de lista de seguimiento + alertas de cambio de calificación
Exportación PDF + DOCX en cualquier idioma
Comenzar prueba gratuita
Cancela cuando quieras.
FAQ

CRWD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $528 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $201 (range $140–$274), which implies roughly 62.0% downside to the midpoint.
Related coverage

Names readers of CRWD also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit
Same sector: Information Technology