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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
DD — frequently asked questions
Is DuPont de Nemours, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-11, DD looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 130 USD versus our fair value of 100 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 129 USD. That implies roughly 23.0% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, gives DD a fair value of 100 USD and a potential value of 129 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for DuPont de Nemours, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy DD now?
Our latest published rating for DD, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Sell. DuPont de Nemours, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 130 USD versus fair value of 100 USD; potential value is 129 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for DD?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-11 documents DuPont de Nemours, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is DD's rating?
Our latest published rating for DD, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 100 USD, the potential value of 129 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (130 USD).
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§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosSell
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$130.00
Valor razonable
$100.11
Valor potencial
$128.56
A fecha de
2026-10-09
Por qué puede funcionar
The primary operational opportunity lies in accelerating commercial adoption of high-recovery water purification membranes and medical packaging barrier solutions within Healthcare & Water Technologies ($3,233M in FY2025 sales), combined with 80/20 productivity gains expanding consolidated operating EBIT margins to 15.0% by 2030.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
Operating EBIT margin falling below 10.5% across Diversified Industrials or consolidated organic revenue growth turning negative.
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD) is rated Sell with a fair value estimate of $100.11 per share, representing an implied downside of 22.99% from the market price of $130.00. While operational turnaround and 80/20 restructuring initiatives are progressing, current share prices have fully outrun fundamentals.4
DuPont's operational execution is staging a recovery following a cyclical trough. Second-quarter 2026 results prompted management to raise full-year guidance, projecting consolidated net sales of $7.18B, adjusted EPS of $7.24 (an 18% increase), and operating EBITDA of $1.76B. management has supported conversion tracking near 100% of adjusted earnings, enabling the launch of a $250M quarterly share repurchase program.
Standalone DCF discipline highlights the drag imposed by $3,194M in total debt, while pricing realization of $90M is limited to offsetting hydrocarbon inflation on a dollar-neutral basis rather than expanding margins.4,5
At $130.00, DuPont trades at 16.47x forward earnings, a marked premium to cyclical peers such as PPG Industries (12.03x). Even under our optimistic bull-case scenario ($128.56), intrinsic value fails to exceed the current market quote. With risk/reward heavily skewed to the downside (-22.99% implied return), investors are advised to sell shares and reallocate capital toward undervalued opportunities.4
Resilient Secular Growth in Water Purification and Biopharma Packaging
Healthcare & Water Technologies delivers steady mid-single-digit organic growth driven by non-discretionary municipal filtration standards and medical device sterilization specifications.5,8
Organizational restructuring and yield optimization target 150 basis points of structural operating margin expansion from 13.5% in 2026 to 15.0% by 2030.5
Free cash flow conversion tracking near 100% of adjusted earnings funds an active $250M quarterly share repurchase program while preserving over $1.0B in M&A capacity.5
Recomendación de la casa
Sell: At $130.00, DuPont shares trade at a 29.86% premium over intrinsic fair value ($100.11), fully pricing in operational restructuring while ignoring cyclical industrial risks and balance sheet leverage.4
Descripción general de la empresa
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (NYSE: DD) is a multinational specialty materials company providing essential technology-based materials and solutions across global industries. The company operates two principal reporting segments: Diversified Industrials and Healthcare & Water Technologies.
The Healthcare & Water Technologies segment generated $3,233M in FY2025 revenue (47.2% of sales), offering critical purification solutions including FilmTec reverse osmosis membranes, ultrafiltration, and ion exchange resins, alongside Tyvek protective medical packaging barrier materials.
The Diversified Industrials segment generated $3,616M in FY2025 revenue (52.8% of sales), supplying high-performance aramid fibers (Kevlar, Nomex), electronics materials, and specialized adhesive and safety solutions across automotive, aerospace, defense, and industrial manufacturing markets.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
Under a severe cyclical stress test combining persistent European manufacturing stagnation, extended Asian industrial destocking, and unrecovered hydrocarbon inflation, DuPont's operating EBIT margin compresses to 10.5% while organic revenue growth turns negative at -0.36%. In this scenario, free cash flow generation contracts toward maintenance capital expenditure requirements, eliminating capacity for discretionary share repurchases and straining debt coverage on $3,194M in total debt. Intrinsic fair value contracts to $71.51, representing a 45.0% decline from the October 9, 2026 share price of $130.00.
In the downside scenario, protracted industrial weakness across Europe and Asia Pacific depresses demand in Diversified Industrials, while sticky raw material and hydrocarbon inflation outstrips dollar-neutral pricing actions. Operating EBIT margins contract below baseline levels toward cyclical trough territory, and multiple de-rating occurs as balance sheet leverage and negative trailing GAAP earnings prompt market reassessment of business quality.
Cómo puede fallar esta tesis
Persistent industrial destocking and raw material cost spikes prevent margin recovery, compressing operating EBIT margins across Diversified Industrials.
DuPont Diversified Industrials generated $3,616M in FY2025 revenue and guided to low single-digit growth in Q3. Hydrocarbon inflation created an immediate 50 bps margin headwind while pricing is only dollar-neutral. If operating EBIT margin falls below 10.5%, fair value is shocked downward by 28.4%.5,8
FV impact
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
Failure of 80/20 productivity initiatives to offset hydrocarbon cost inflation, leading to operating profit margin erosion.
Actual:13.5% (FY2026 house forecast baseline)
Alerta si< 10.5%
02
§3 Foso competitivoEN
Narrow
DuPont possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in customer switching costs and proprietary formulation intangibles within its specialty materials portfolio. In Healthcare & Water Technologies, which generated $3,233M in FY2025 revenue, proprietary membrane chemistries (FilmTec) and medical barrier packaging (Tyvek) are deeply embedded in customer production processes. Biopharmaceutical packaging and municipal desalination facilities undergo lengthy validation and regulatory certification cycles, making supplier substitution costly and operationally disruptive. These dynamics support management's guidance of mid-single-digit organic growth for the segment in 2H 2026.
Conversely, the Diversified Industrials segment, representing $3,616M in FY2025 revenue, faces more cyclical end-market exposure across automotive, aerospace, and general industrial accounts. While aramid fibers (Kevlar, Nomex) maintain premium technical positioning, customer switching barriers are lower than in healthcare. Management has focused on the 80/20 operating model to prioritize high-margin product lines and implemented $90M in annual pricing surcharges. However, this pricing is limited to dollar neutrality against hydrocarbon inflation rather than percentage margin expansion.
DuPont's structural moat is evaluated as narrow rather than wide because of peer competitive dynamics and capital intensity. Competitors such as Ecolab generate superior operating margins of 18.52%, compared to the broader chemical industry operating margin benchmark of 12.4%. DuPont's normalized ROIC of 4.04% remains below its computed WACC of 8.82%, reflecting legacy goodwill and past restructuring costs. Although moat-protected segments provide defensive cash flow, broader cyclical industrial exposure caps economic profit expansion over the medium term.
Beneficio económico
DuPont generates economic profits primarily through its specialty membrane, biopharma filtration, and medical packaging franchises, where regulatory standards and customer qualification requirements create switching barriers. In FY2025, Healthcare & Water Technologies generated $3,233M in net sales out of $6,849M total revenue. However, consolidated returns are weighed down by the cyclical Diversified Industrials segment ($3,616M in FY2025 revenue) and legacy asset intensity, resulting in normalized ROIC of 4.04% trailing the estimated WACC of 8.82%. Economic value added is anticipated to turn positive as 80/20 productivity initiatives expand operating EBIT margins toward 15.0% by 2030.2,7,8
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Customer Switching Costs in Regulated Applications — High customer switching costs stem from strict regulatory qualifications in biopharma medical packaging and municipal water purification specifications, supporting $3,233M in FY2025 revenue for Healthcare & Water Technologies and sustaining mid-single-digit organic growth into 2H 2026.Moderate
02Proprietary Formulations and Brand Intangibles — Patented polymer chemistries, aramid fiber technologies, and established brand specifications like Tyvek provide value-based pricing power, enabling $90M in annual pricing realization to achieve dollar neutrality against raw material inflation.Moderate
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
Input cost volatility and hydrocarbon price spikes outrunning pricing surcharges
medium
6 to 12 months
Execution of formulaic pricing clauses and contract renewals targeting price/cost dollar neutrality.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($100.11). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $566.0M after modeled reinvestment of $188.7M, with terminal value at 75.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the modal base case, DuPont delivers on guided 2H operational acceleration, achieving $7,166M in FY2026 revenue and adjusted EPS of $7.26, followed by FY2027 revenue of $7,451M and EPS of $7.97. Operating EBIT margins expand steadily from 13.5% in 2026 to 15.0% by 2030 through 80/20 productivity gains. Free cash flow conversion remains near 100%, supporting $250M quarterly share repurchases. Intrinsic fair value converges to $100.11, indicating that trading at $130.00 is significantly stretched.1,5
Healthcare & Water Technologies delivers high single-digit organic expansion driven by global water filtration demand5
Operating EBIT margins reach 17.0% as 80/20 organizational redesign delivers superior manufacturing yield
§7 Árbol de decisión de resultadosEN
Superado
Maintain Sell; Verify whether operational margin gains reflect sustainable productivity rather than temporary timing before committing fresh capital.
Disparador: Q3 adjusted EPS and net sales exceed the high end of guidance with operating EBITDA margin outperforming management expectations
Even with an operational beat confirming resilient execution in Healthcare & Water Technologies, valuation at $130.00 trades at a premium over Fair value of $100.11 (implied return of -23.0%), keeping the valuation stance intact.
En línea
Maintain Sell; Maintain disciplined capital preservation and review price/cost spread realization across industrial accounts.
Disparador: Q3 adjusted EPS and net sales deliver within the guided range with operating EBITDA margin in line with management targets
In-line delivery matches the house forecast trajectory for FY2026, confirming that share valuation at $130.00 fully prices in operational recovery with no margin of safety.
Fallo
Maintain Sell; Accelerate portfolio rebalancing out of cyclical chemical exposure to mitigate further valuation compression.
Disparador: Q3 adjusted EPS or net sales fall below the low end of guidance due to European and Asian industrial weakness or unrecovered hydrocarbon inflation
An earnings miss confirms vulnerability to cyclical headwinds and prompts rapid multiple compression toward peer chemical levels, reinforcing intrinsic downside toward the lower boundary.
Calidad de los beneficios
Earnings quality is mixed. While adjusted operating EBITDAguidance of $1.76B and adjusted EPS guidance of $7.24 reflect strong operational cash generation, reported GAAP results were heavily distorted in FY2025 by non-cash asset impairments, producing GAAP net income of -$779M and diluted EPS of -$5.58. Free cash flow conversion near 100% of adjusted earnings provides tangible cash-backed validation, but the wide gap between GAAP and non-GAAP figures warrants analytical caution.5,7
Evolución de las estimaciones
Consensus estimates have shown positive upward momentum following Q2 earnings results. FY2026 consensus EPS increased by 0.59% to $7.26, while FY2027 consensus EPS edged up 0.16% to $7.97. Top-line expectations for FY2026 and FY2027 have stabilized at $7,166M and $7,451M respectively. Upward revisions reflect confidence in 2H volume acceleration (guided to 6% organic growth), yet the magnitude of estimate upgrades remains modest and insufficient to bridge the 29.86% valuation premium.1,5
DuPont exhibits healthy operating cash flow characteristics despite reported earnings volatility. In FY2025, the company converted $1,412M of operating cash flow into $1,079M of free cash flow after deducting $333M in capital expenditures. Capital intensity remains moderate, with FY2025 capex representing 4.86% of revenue, roughly in line with the industry benchmark of 4.1%. Management's working capital optimization (tight DSO, DPO, and inventory management) has driven free cash flow conversion toward 100% of adjusted net income. The house forecast models 25% NOPAT reinvestment across 2026–2030, generating $566.0M in FY2026 FCFF and expanding to $714.4M by FY2030. However, even with disciplined , the present value of cannot justify the October 9, 2026 share price of $130.00.
Return on invested capital is transitioning out of a cyclical trough. Reported FY2025 performance was depressed by asset impairments and restructuring costs resulting in GAAP net income of -$779M and operating income of $860M. With the implementation of the 80/20 operating model and normalized FY2026 operating EBIT forecast at $967.5M (13.5% margin), forward ROIC is projected to recover toward 8.5%–10.0% by FY2028.
Current normalized ROIC of 4.04% remains below DuPont's computed WACC of 8.82%, reflecting past goodwill and asset write-downs. Under the house forecast schedule, parity (ROIC matching WACC) is achieved around FY2027–FY2028 as NOPAT reaches $813.6M on stable capital reinvestment.
Ingresos más recientes6849 M US$CAGR de ingresos −19,5 %
Margen operativo12,6 %10 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente1079 M US$FY2025
Deuda neta2479 M US$FY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Ingresos6849 M US$Coste de ventas−4777 M US$Beneficio bruto2072 M US$Gastos operativos−1212 M US$Beneficio operativo860 M US$Partidas no operativas e impuestos−1639 M US$Beneficio neto-779 M US$
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
6.849.000.000 US$
Coste de ventas
4.777.000.000 US$
Beneficio bruto
2.072.000.000 US$
Gastos operativos
1.212.000.000 US$
Beneficio operativo
860.000.000 US$
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-1.639.000.000 US$
Beneficio neto
-779.000.000 US$
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales21,6 mil M US$Efectivo715 M US$Activos corrientes5575 M US$Pasivos totales7472 M US$Pasivos corrientes2305 M US$Patrimonio neto14,1 mil M US$
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
21.575.000.000 US$
Efectivo
715.000.000 US$
Activos corrientes
5.575.000.000 US$
Pasivos totales
7.472.000.000 US$
Pasivos corrientes
2.305.000.000 US$
Patrimonio neto
14.103.000.000 US$
Puente de flujo de cajaCómo el flujo de caja operativo se convirtió en flujo de caja libre en FY2022.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Conciliación del flujo operativo
Beneficio neto5868 M US$Depreciación y amortización+1135 M US$Compensación basada en acciones+75 M US$Otros ajustes operativos−6490 M US$Flujo de caja operativo588 M US$
Conciliación del efectivo inicial al final
Efectivo inicial2076 M US$Flujo de caja operativo+588 M US$Flujo de inversión+8923 M US$Flujo de financiación−7667 M US$Efecto del tipo de cambio−148 M US$Efectivo final3723 M US$
588 M US$ − 662 M US$Flujo de caja libre -74 M US$
Datos del puente de flujo de caja
Beneficio neto
5.868.000.000 US$
Entrada operativa
7.078.000.000 US$
Depreciación y amortización
1.135.000.000 US$
Compensación basada en acciones
75.000.000 US$
Flujo de caja operativo
588.000.000 US$
Salida operativa
6.490.000.000 US$
Efectivo disponible
11.587.000.000 US$
Efectivo inicial
2.076.000.000 US$
Entrada de inversión
8.923.000.000 US$
Salida de financiación
7.667.000.000 US$
Recompras de acciones
3.250.000.000 US$
Dividendos pagados
652.000.000 US$
Amortización neta de deuda
2.650.000.000 US$
Otras actividades de financiación
1.115.000.000 US$
Efecto del tipo de cambio
148.000.000 US$
Efectivo final
3.723.000.000 US$
Flujo de inversión
8.923.000.000 US$
Flujo de financiación
-7.667.000.000 US$
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
6849 M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción
Diversified Industrials3616 M US$52,8 %−3,4 % interanual
Healthcare And Water Technologies3233 M US$47,2 %+8,6 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-17 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
Diversified Industrials
3616 M US$
52,8 %
-3,4 %
Healthcare And Water Technologies
3233 M US$
47,2 %
8,6 %
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-10-11.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
48,2 mil M US$
8133 M US$
4318 M US$
-2957 M US$
-6761 M US$
3804 M US$
2862 M US$
453 M US$
916 M US$
2462 M US$
—
5092 M US$
-4014 M US$
—
6624 M US$
6607 M US$
21,1 mil M US$
12,6 %
—
5,4 %
—
2017-12-31
11,7 mil M US$
6248 M US$
1159 M US$
-765 M US$
-1316 M US$
551 M US$
1060 M US$
19 M US$
8100 M US$
3394 M US$
—
14,3 mil M US$
-6554 M US$
6624 M US$
14 mil M US$
14,4 mil M US$
32,1 mil M US$
61,6 %
—
5,1 %
—
2018-12-31
22,6 mil M US$
2825 M US$
3845 M US$
4731 M US$
3487 M US$
1244 M US$
2170 M US$
92 M US$
4421 M US$
3491 M US$
—
-2462 M US$
-1918 M US$
14 mil M US$
8583 M US$
8577 M US$
-12,6 mil M US$
9,5 %
—
—
—
2019-12-31
15,4 mil M US$
2260 M US$
498 M US$
1409 M US$
-1063 M US$
2472 M US$
3195 M US$
1880 M US$
2329 M US$
1611 M US$
—
-2313 M US$
-11,6 mil M US$
8583 M US$
1522 M US$
1540 M US$
-15,6 mil M US$
18,1 %
—
—
—
2020-12-31
11,1 mil M US$
-201 M US$
-2951 M US$
4095 M US$
2901 M US$
1194 M US$
3094 M US$
2522 M US$
232 M US$
882 M US$
—
-202 M US$
3238 M US$
1522 M US$
8733 M US$
2580 M US$
15,6 mil M US$
18,3 %
—
4,8 %
—
2021-12-31
12,6 mil M US$
3081 M US$
6467 M US$
2281 M US$
1493 M US$
788 M US$
1112 M US$
-5084 M US$
2143 M US$
630 M US$
—
-2401 M US$
-6507 M US$
8733 M US$
2037 M US$
2034 M US$
10,6 mil M US$
14,9 %
—
4,9 %
—
2022-12-31
13 mil M US$
3075 M US$
5868 M US$
588 M US$
-74 M US$
662 M US$
1135 M US$
75 M US$
3250 M US$
652 M US$
-2650 M US$
8923 M US$
-7667 M US$
2076 M US$
3723 M US$
4964 M US$
8145 M US$
15,5 %
—
7,3 %
—
2023-12-31
6614 M US$
2047 M US$
423 M US$
2191 M US$
1889 M US$
302 M US$
580 M US$
57 M US$
2000 M US$
651 M US$
-300 M US$
172 M US$
-2989 M US$
3772 M US$
2755 M US$
1981 M US$
7859 M US$
26,0 %
—
7,4 %
—
2024-12-31
6719 M US$
2752 M US$
703 M US$
1847 M US$
1562 M US$
285 M US$
635 M US$
56 M US$
500 M US$
635 M US$
-687 M US$
-849 M US$
-1847 M US$
2803 M US$
1834 M US$
1792 M US$
7171 M US$
27,2 %
—
7,6 %
—
2025-12-31
6849 M US$
1160 M US$
-779 M US$
1412 M US$
1079 M US$
333 M US$
647 M US$
38 M US$
500 M US$
597 M US$
-4074 M US$
-687 M US$
-1868 M US$
1892 M US$
757 M US$
715 M US$
3194 M US$
12,6 %
—
7,8 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.DD
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable100,11 US$Report-date price130 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión54 / 100
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.IFF
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable43 US$Report-date price84,65 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión47 / 100
PPG Industries Inc.PPG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable99,48 US$Report-date price105,07 US$
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD) trades at 16.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 12.3x compares with a peer median of 16.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: International Flavors & Fragrances Inc., PPG Industries Inc., The Sherwin-Williams Company and Ecolab Inc., as of 2026-10-11.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Contraction
Industry capital expenditure relative to revenue stands at 4.1% and capex relative to depreciation is 1.55x. DuPont's FY2025 capex of $333M against depreciation of $647M represents a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.51x, well below the industry benchmark of 1.55x, confirming disciplined internal capital restraint amidst broader sector capacity discipline. Because capacity, supply, lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable in reported data, this cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Ciclo alcista
In an industrial expansion phase, accelerated automotive build rates, expanding electronics packaging, and municipal infrastructure investments drive synchronized volume growth across Diversified Industrials ($3,616M base) and Healthcare & Water Technologies ($3,233M base). Operating leverage expands EBITDA margins above 25% while pricing realization exceeds input cost inflation.
Ciclo bajista
During a cyclical downturn, European and Asian industrial demand stagnates, resulting in customer inventory destocking, extended factory shutdowns, and operating deleverage across Diversified Industrials. Hydrocarbon spikes create unrecoverable cost inflation, compressing gross margins below the industry benchmark of 35.1% and reducing cash conversion.
Tendencias seculares
Tendencia
Impacto
Nota
Global Water Scarcity and Advanced Filtration Standards
positive
Expanding municipal regulations and industrial wastewater reuse requirements drive steady mid-single-digit demand growth for reverse osmosis and ultrafiltration membranes.
Biopharmaceutical Packaging Sterilization and Single-Use Technologies
positive
Stringent global pharmacopeia packaging specifications sustain high-margin volume growth for Tyvek healthcare barrier solutions.
Cyclical De-globalization and European Industrial Deceleration
Posicionamiento
DuPont is positioned as a late-cycle restructuring beneficiary. Its strategic portfolio realignment has increased exposure to resilient secular end-markets—with Healthcare & Water Technologies generating 47.2% of FY2025 sales. However, with 52.8% of revenue still tied to cyclical Diversified Industrials and international operations accounting for 45.4% of sales ($1,640M in APAC and $1,468M in EMEA), consolidated performance remains highly sensitive to global industrial demand cycles.8
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
Under the committee's Sell rating, no long equity exposure is recommended. DuPont trades at $130.00, representing a 29.86% premium over intrinsic fair value ($100.11), with fundamental DCF modeling showing downside risk to $55.53. Capital should be completely preserved and reallocated away from overvalued cyclical exposure into assets offering a positive margin of safety.
Riesgo
Risk management focuses on capital preservation through disciplined divestment. Given the stock's elevated valuation multiple (16.47x forward P/E), cyclical vulnerability in European and Asian end-markets, and total balance sheet debt of $3,194M, holding shares at $130.00 exposes portfolios to uncompensated downside risk. Investors should reallocate capital toward equities with verifiable margins of safety and clear structural earnings growth.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
$100.00
Initiate initial analytical re-assessment
Convergence with compositefair value midpoint of $100.11 eliminates the current 29.86% overvaluation premium.
$85.00
Consider modest pilot accumulation if operational execution remains on track
Provides an approximate 15% discount to base-case intrinsic fair value, offering an initial .
Tramos de salida
Nivel
Acción
$135.00
Aggressively liquidate 100% of any remaining tactical positions
$130.00 (Current Level)
Execute complete portfolio exit and reallocate proceeds
Confirm structural inability to offset raw material inflation and enforce complete divestment.
Organic Sales Growth Rate
< 3.0%
Downgrade terminal growth assumptions and reduce long-term estimate.
§12 Perspectivas de inversoresEN
Valuation & Capital Preservation
Avoid
Trading at $130.00, shares carry a 29.86% premium over compositeintrinsic value of $100.11 and exceed even the bull-case ceiling of $128.56. Fundamental DCF valuation drops to $55.53 after accounting for $3,194M in balance sheet debt.4
Cyclical & Industrial Investor
Avoid
Diversified Industrials ($3,616M in FY2025 sales) faces sluggish volume growth and hydrocarbon cost headwinds, while international exposure across EMEA ($1,468M) and APAC ($1,640M) remains vulnerable to manufacturing stagnation.5,8
Quality Growth & Income
Avoid
Although Healthcare & Water Technologies exhibits narrow-moat characteristics with mid-single-digit organic growth, the dividend yield is modest and share repurchases executed at $130.00 destroy per-share intrinsic value.5
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Vender
DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD) is rated Sell. While the company's operational execution is stabilizing—with management raising FY2026 adjusted EPSguidance to $7.24 and free cash flow conversion tracking near 100% —the stock's market price of $130.00 sits at a 29.86% premium over our composite intrinsic fair value of $100.11. Even the optimistic bull case ($128.56) falls below current trading levels, leaving investors with negative risk-adjusted expected return.4,5
Fundamental valuation models synthesize forward earnings ($105.16, 40% weight), multi-stage moat fade ($126.18, 35% weight), and enterprise DCF ($55.53, 25% weight). The heavy debt burden of $3,194M and dollar-neutral pricing limitations anchor fundamental value well below sell-side consensus targets. Investors should liquidate positions and redeploy proceeds into opportunities with compelling valuation upside.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Protracted European and Asian industrial recession induces multi-year volume contractions across chemical and industrial end markets.
Asia Pacific and EMEA represent $1,640M and $1,468M of revenue respectively. Full year organic growth guidance was only slightly ahead of 4% and consensus models 4.64% in FY2026. A breach below -0.36% annual revenue growth shocks fair value down by 35.2% over a 24-month horizon.1,5,8
FV impact
-6.4%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Cyclical multiple de-rating as markets reprice DuPont toward lower-tier chemical peers due to balance sheet leverage and accounting distress signals.
DuPont currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 16.47x, compared to peer PPG Industries trading at 12.03x. Total debt sits at $3,194M against FY2025 net income of -$779M. A multiple de-rating below 13.2x forward P/E causes a 20.0% decline in fair value within 12 months.4,7
Customer resistance to hydrocarbon and raw material surcharges eroding cash gross profit dollars.
Actual:$90M in full-year pricing implementation
Alerta si< $50M annual pricing realization
03
Manufacturing Scale and Operational Integration — Global production footprint across North America, EMEA, and Asia Pacific supports 80/20 operational streamlining initiatives, though geographic dispersion in Europe ($1,468M FY2025 revenue) and APAC ($1,640M FY2025 revenue) exposes fixed-cost absorption to regional volume swings.
Narrow
Cyclical demand contraction in European and Asian automotive and industrial manufacturing markets
high
12 to 24 months
Redeploying commercial resources toward higher-margin medical packaging and advanced water applications under the 80/20 framework.5
Competitive membrane capacity expansion from specialized global peers
medium
24 to 36 months
Continued innovation in next-generation high-recovery reverse osmosis elements and direct lithium extraction solutions.5
56,3%
Method
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (18,17 US$) plus discounted terminal value (55,72 US$) minus signed per current share (18,36 US$) equals the 55,53 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the upside scenario, rapid realization of 80/20 restructuring efficiencies and sustained mid-single-digit organic growth in Healthcare & Water Technologies expand operating EBIT margins toward 17.0%, while sequential volume exit acceleration (6% in 2H 2026, 7% in Q4) and disciplined buybacks drive FY2027 EPS growth to 12.0%, supporting intrinsic fair value of 128.56.5
02
Métrica:
Second-Half Organic Sales Growth Acceleration
ActualTracking to full-year organic growth slightly ahead of 4%.
Por qué importa
Confirms whether the guided ramp from 3% reported growth in Q3 to 6% in 2H and 7% in Q4 is materializing across core product lines.5
03
Métrica:
Price/Cost Spread Realization in Specialty Chemistries
ActualApproximately 2 percentage points of pricing embedded in second-half revenue projections.
Por qué importa
Monitors whether $90M in targeted full-year pricing successfully protects cash gross profit dollars without triggering customer volume pushback.5
Management pursues a balanced capital allocation strategy combining debt service, shareholder returns, and selective bolt-on M&A. In Q3 2026, the company launched a $250M share repurchase program, supported by strong liquidity, while preserving over $1.0B in cash firepower for strategic acquisitions in water treatment and healthcare solutions. The baseline dividend provides steady cash return, supported by annual diluted share reductions of approximately 0.5%. However, allocating capital to equity repurchases at $130.00—a 29.86% premium over intrinsic fair value ($100.11)—is value-dilutive to long-term per-share intrinsic worth compared to accelerated debt reduction against its $3,194M debt load.
DuPont generated $1,412M in operating cash flow and $1,079M in free cash flow in FY2025, with management confirming free cash flow conversion tracking near 100% of adjusted earnings into FY2026.
Robust cash generation funds organic reinvestment and planned $250M quarterly share repurchases, but does not compensate for current equity overvaluation.
Pricing Actions Limited to Inflation Neutrality Rather Than Margin Expansion
Management implemented $90M in annual price increases, which merely offsets hydrocarbon inflation on a dollar-for-dollar basis after a 50 bps EBITDA margin drag in Q3.
Pricing protects nominal gross profit dollars but does not drive structural percentage margin expansion, capping upside in operating leverage.
Balance Sheet Debt Creates Fundamental Valuation Drag in Enterprise Models
Total debt of $3,194M results in net debt of $2,479M, generating a substantial enterprise claim of $18.36 per share in fundamental DCF valuation.
Deducting debt obligations drops standalone DCFfair value to $55.53, anchoring compositeintrinsic value at $100.11 and demonstrating downside vulnerability at current market prices.
The Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable153,67 US$Report-date price329,1 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión59 / 100
Ecolab Inc.ECL
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable203,99 US$Report-date price273,7 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión62 / 100
Margen
DD
DuPont de Nemours Inc.
$17.6B
16.5x
2.5x
12.3x
1.8%
—
IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
$21.6B
21.3x
2.0x
14.3x
-5.5%
8.5%
PPG
PPG Industries Inc.
$23.1B
12.0x
1.4x
10.9x
19.3%
14.0%
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
$77.5B
23.6x
3.2x
19.6x
65.1%
18.1%
ECL
Ecolab Inc.
$79.0B
30.0x
4.7x
21.2x
22.0%
18.5%
negative
Sluggish manufacturing activity across Europe and China weighs on export volumes and creates pricing headwinds in base industrial intermediate materials.
