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ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $79.8, high $166, with mid-point at $118.
Stock analysis

ESTC fair value $80–$166

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-10Próxima actualización: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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Precio
$52.25
▲ +65.96 (+126.24%)
Valor razonable
$118
$80–$166
Calificación
Compra fuerte
confidence 73/100
Potencial alcista
+126.2%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$100.48
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$5.4B
P/E fwd 18.4
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $118 with high case $166.
  • Implied upside of 126.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 73/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$118
Margin of safety
+55.8%
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$52.25Price
Low $79.75
Mid $118.21
High $165.72

ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core enterprise search and observability.
  • Growing footprint in generative AI
    Growing footprint in generative AI vector search.
  • Cycle upside
    Generative AI drives massive vector database adoption. Cloud migration and IT consolidation favor platforms offering unified observability and security.

§2 Caso bajista

A severe IT spending contraction paired with aggressive discounting by native cloud providers tests Elastic's pricing power. If top-line growth decelerates below 10% before operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. kicks in, the current 8x EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiple will violently compress.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Cloud Provider Commoditization

· Low

Native cloud providers bundle vector search and observability natively at zero marginal cost, destroying top-line growth.

FV impact
Severe

Datadog Consolidation

· Medium

Enterprise IT consolidates entirely on Datadog or Splunk for observability, crowding out Elastic's premium offerings.

FV impact
Moderate

Perpetual Unprofitability

· High

SBC and R&D spend required to compete remain elevated indefinitely, preventing transition to structural profitability.

FV impact
High
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Revenue growth decelerating below 15% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue expanding.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major enterprise logo churn to Datadog or native cloud tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Vector search adoption stalling in favor of standalone DBs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-04-302023-04-302024-04-302025-04-30Trend
Ingresos$862.4M$1.07B$1.27B$1.48B+19.8%
Beneficio bruto$630.2M$772.4M$937.2M$1.10B+20.5%
Beneficio operativo$-173.7M$-187.9M$-125.0M$-54.7M—
Beneficio neto$-203.8M$-236.2M$61.7M$-108.1M—
BPA (diluido)$-2.20$-2.47$0.59$-1.04—
EBITDA$-157.3M$-171.5M$-78.6M$6.1M—
I+D$273.8M$313.5M$342.0M$365.8M+10.1%
SG&A$530.1M$646.8M$720.3M$792.4M+14.3%

Puntuaciones de calidad

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
Compuesto de calidad 0–9
Altman Z-score
2.35
Riesgo de quiebra (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-3.02
Riesgo de manipulación de beneficios
OCF / Beneficio neto
-2.46
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
-0.0%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Flujo de caja

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Suscriptores individuales — desde §411 secciones más

Leer el análisis completo — 11 secciones más.

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MARGINS FAQ

ESTC margins questions

  1. ESTC (ESTC)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

ESTC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ESTC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $52.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $118 (range $79.8–$166), which implies roughly 126.2% upside to the midpoint.

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