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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
FANG — frequently asked questions
Is Diamondback Energy Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, FANG looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 204 USD versus our fair value of 152 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 213 USD. That implies roughly 25.4% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives FANG a fair value of 152 USD and a potential value of 213 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Diamondback Energy Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy FANG now?
Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Diamondback Energy Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 204 USD versus fair value of 152 USD; potential value is 213 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for FANG?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Diamondback Energy Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is FANG's rating?
Our latest published rating for FANG, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 3/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of 152 USD, the potential value of 213 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (204 USD).
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§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosSell
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$204.33
Valor razonable
$152.45
Valor potencial
$212.81
A fecha de
Fecha de cotización no registrada
Por qué puede funcionar
Bull: Sustained high oil prices and strong execution in the Permian basin lead to massive capital returns to shareholders and outperformance against peers.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
Severe Commodity Downcycle: Global demand destruction pushes crude below $60/bbl structurally, eliminating free cash flow generation.
Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality.
Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality.
Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
At $60/bbl oil, operating margins drop below 25%, causing a total evaporation of the $1.8B base FCFF and risking dividend safety.
A severe commodity downcycle and cost inflation compress margins, eliminating free cash flow and forcing leverage concerns as spot rates break $60/bbl.
Prolonged margin contraction signals that field service costs or realized hydrocarbon pricing have degraded cash generation, eliminating free cash flow buffers and threatening the sustainability of dividend distributions and shareholder returns.
Actual:32.9% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta siDrops below 25.0% for 12 consecutive months
02
§3 Foso competitivoEN
None
Low-cost Permian pure-play footprint
Scale-driven operational efficiencies
Beneficio económico
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($152.45). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
En línea
Hold
Disparador: In-line results
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
Fallo
Reassess
Disparador: Downside surprise
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
Calidad de los beneficios
If management commits to lower CapEx and higher buybacks at current spot prices, expect short-term multiple support. If organic production misses force higher CapEx guidance, expect sharp multiple contraction.
Warning level: Drops below 25.0% for 12 consecutive months. Prolonged margin contraction signals that field service costs or realized hydrocarbon pricing have degraded cash generation, eliminating free cash flow buffers and threatening the sustainability of dividend distributions and shareholder returns.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Ingresos más recientes14,9 mil MCAGR de ingresos +22,0 %
Margen operativo32,9 %5 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente-703 MFY2025
Deuda neta14,8 mil MFY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ingresos14,9 mil MCoste de ventas−9708 MBeneficio bruto5221 MGastos operativos−303 MBeneficio operativo4918 MPartidas no operativas e impuestos−3254 MBeneficio neto1664 M
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
14.929.000.000
Coste de ventas
9.708.000.000
Beneficio bruto
5.221.000.000
Gastos operativos
303.000.000
Beneficio operativo
4.918.000.000
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-3.254.000.000
Beneficio neto
1.664.000.000
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-05-20.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2021-12-31
6747 M
4371 M
2182 M
3944 M
1670 M
2274 M
1275 M
51 M
525 M
312 M
-680 M
—
—
—
—
654 M
6773 M
60,5 %
—
6,3 %
—
2022-12-31
9566 M
7228 M
4386 M
6325 M
2712 M
3613 M
1344 M
55 M
1251 M
1572 M
-257 M
—
—
—
—
157 M
6379 M
68,2 %
—
8,1 %
—
2023-12-31
8339 M
6169 M
3143 M
5920 M
1206 M
4714 M
1746 M
54 M
840 M
1444 M
377 M
—
—
—
—
582 M
6801 M
54,8 %
—
8,1 %
—
2024-12-31
11 mil M
7639 M
3338 M
6413 M
-5374 M
11,8 mil M
2850 M
65 M
959 M
1578 M
6373 M
—
—
—
—
161 M
13,3 mil M
39,9 %
—
8,6 %
—
2025-12-31
14,9 mil M
7177 M
1664 M
8758 M
-703 M
9461 M
5038 M
—
2010 M
1156 M
1575 M
—
—
—
—
104 M
14,9 mil M
32,9 %
—
6,1 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
Diamondback Energy Inc.FANG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable152,45 US$Report-date price204,33 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNone
Cuadro de mando de inversión43 / 100
ConocoPhillipsCOP
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable125,61 US$Report-date price127,3 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión70 / 100
EOG Resources Inc.EOG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable166,77 US$Report-date price140,35 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión81 / 100
Diamondback Energy Inc.FANG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable152,45 US$Report-date price204,33 US$
Demand destruction or OPEC+ market share wars flood the market, crashing spot prices and forcing severe capex retrenchment.
Posicionamiento
FANG is in a heavy investment phase with CapEx at $9.4B vs D&A at $5B; maintaining flat production requires significant continuous reinvestment.
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
Zero weight. Current spot optimism provides no margin of safety for long-term cycle-agnostic investors.
Riesgo
Divest current holdings at the $204 premium, as the market is pricing in unsupportable implied growth.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
Current / pullbacks
Tramos de salida
Nivel
Acción
Thesis break
Divest current holdings at the $204 premium, as the market is pricing in unsupportable implied growth.
§12 Perspectivas de inversoresEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While near-term spot pricing and momentum provide support, the structural cycle-normalized fair value of $152.45 highlights immense downside risk. The 29.9% implied growth in current pricing is entirely unsupportable.
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Vender
Sell. The stock is severely disconnected from mid-cycle fundamental realities, requiring peak conditions to justify the current valuation.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Substantial earnings revisions reflect prolonged operational margin compression and lower commodity price realizations, eroding equity valuation multiples and diminishing the capital available for balance sheet deleveraging.
Actual:5.73 for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta siInternal valuation cross-checks forward revisions fall below 10.00 per share over four consecutive quarters
A persistent drop in return on capital demonstrates that incremental upstream investments and acquired acreage fail to generate acceptable economic value, undermining the rationale for continued capital expenditure programs.
Actual:3.3% as of 2026-05-20
Alerta siFalls below 2.0% for two consecutive quarters
Shrinking gross margins suggest that production costs and extraction inefficiencies are outpacing realized revenues across core acreage, diminishing well-level profitability and undermining long-term production growth assumptions.
Actual:35.0% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta siCompresses below 30.0% over two consecutive quarters
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Commodity prices revert to mid-cycle averages. FANG generates robust free cash flow, but valuations normalize to historical cyclical multiples with 35% margins.
Actual5.73 for the period ended 2025-12-31
Por qué importa
Warning level: Internal valuation cross-checks forward revisions fall below 10.00 per share over four consecutive quarters. Substantial earnings revisions reflect prolonged operational margin compression and lower commodity price realizations, eroding equity valuation multiples and diminishing the capital available for balance sheet deleveraging.
Warning level: Falls below 2.0% for two consecutive quarters. A persistent drop in return on capital demonstrates that incremental upstream investments and acquired acreage fail to generate acceptable economic value, undermining the rationale for continued capital expenditure programs.
Warning level: Falls below 2.000 over a trailing twelve-month period. A material reduction in operating cash conversion indicates working capital drag and lower earnings quality, constraining internal cash flow and increasing the risk of issuing unplanned debt to fund shareholder returns.
Warning level: Compresses below 30.0% over two consecutive quarters. Shrinking gross margins suggest that production costs and extraction inefficiencies are outpacing realized revenues across core acreage, diminishing well-level profitability and undermining long-term production growth assumptions.
EQT CorporationEQT
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable54,24 US$Report-date price50,17 US$
