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LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $133, high $237, with mid-point at $183.
Stock analysis

LRCX Lam Research Corporation fair value $183–$237

LRCX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-08Próxima actualización: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Precio
$295.15
▼ -111.67 (-37.84%)
Valor razonable
$183
$183–$237
Calificación
Vender
confidence 87/100
Potencial alcista
-37.8%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$155.96
buy below · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$369.1B
P/E fwd 37.3
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $183 with high case $237.
  • Implied downside of 37.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$183
Margin of safety
-60.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$295.16Price
FV $183.48
High $237.3

LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    Consensus target of $310.47 relies on ungrounded perpetual multiple expansion.

§2 Caso bajista

A severe stress test incorporating a 30% reduction to next-year consensus revenue and structurally lower terminal margins drops fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $130 level. This highlights the extreme fragility of the current high multiples assigned by the market, which completely ignore inherent downcycle risks.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Prolonged Memory Downturn

· Medium

Extended reduction in NAND and DRAM capex significantly depresses equipment sales and margins beyond modeled downcycle parameters.

FV impact
Downside to $132.71
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Export Controls

Low-Medium· Low

Complete ban on trailing-edge and advanced equipment sales to China abruptly eliminates a major high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
Downside below $100.00
Trigger
6-12 months

Advanced Packaging Share Loss

· Low

Competitors dominate next-generation advanced packaging and gate-all-around deposition transitions, permanently eroding Lam's market share.

FV impact
Downside to $150.00
Trigger
36-48 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Deceleration in deferred revenue growth or service attach rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major memory customers aggressively cutting near-term capex guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Ramp-up in export restriction rhetoric from the US government.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Margin compression signaling price competition in trailing-edge tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising inventory days signaling a severe industry downcycle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Ingresos$17.23B$17.43B$14.91B$18.44B+2.3%
Beneficio bruto$7.87B$7.78B$7.05B$8.98B+4.5%
Beneficio operativo$5.38B$5.22B$4.28B$5.90B+3.1%
Beneficio neto$4.61B$4.51B$3.83B$5.36B+5.2%
BPA (diluido)$3.28$3.32$2.90$4.15+8.2%
EBITDA$5.71B$5.64B$4.91B$6.52B+4.5%
I+D$1.60B$1.73B$1.90B$2.10B+9.3%
SG&A$885.7M$832.8M$868.2M$981.7M+3.5%

Puntuaciones de calidad

Piotroski F-score
8 / 9
Compuesto de calidad 0–9
Altman Z-score
23.45
Riesgo de quiebra (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.36
Riesgo de manipulación de beneficios
OCF / Beneficio neto
1.15×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Pass
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
33.8%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Suscriptores individuales — desde §411 secciones más

Leer el análisis completo — 11 secciones más.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

LRCX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LRCX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $183 (range $133–$237), which implies roughly 37.8% downside to the midpoint.

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