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MAR trades against a final fair-value range of $151.90-$303.69, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $152, high $304, with mid-point at $228.
Stock analysis

MAR fair value $152–$304

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-20Próxima actualización: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Precio
$358.69
▼ -130.85 (-36.48%)
Valor razonable
$228
$152–$304
Calificación
Vender
confidence 88/100
Potencial alcista
-36.5%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$193.66
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$94.6B
P/E fwd 27.4
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $228 with high case $304.
  • Implied downside of 36.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$228
Margin of safety
-57.4%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$358.69Price
Low $151.9
Mid $227.84
High $303.69

MAR trades against a final fair-value range of $151.90-$303.69, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking
    Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
  • Global scale and brand portfolio
    Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.
  • Cycle upside
    Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.

§2 Caso bajista

A severe macroeconomic contraction compresses RevPAR, while sustained high interest rates raise the cost of servicing $17B in debt, forcing a halt to share buybacks and destroying EPS growthEPS growthYear-over-year change in diluted earnings per share. The bottom-line growth rate that drives shareholder return when multiples are stable. momentum.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze

· Medium

Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Valuation Multiple Mean Reversion

· High

Market pivots from pricing MAR as a perpetual compounder to a cyclical lodging stock, instantly closing the gap to the intrinsic $227.84 fair value.

FV impact
-36%
Trigger
0-12 months

Structural Corporate Travel Decline

· Low

Permanent downward shift in enterprise travel budgets reduces high-margin group bookings, structurally compressing system-wide RevPAR.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Consecutive quarters of RevPAR growth trailing the baseline 6.4% estimate.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising debt-to-EBITDA ratio exceeding 4.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Suspension or material reduction of the share repurchase program.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Contraction in the net global pipeline of room additions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Erosion of Bonvoy active member engagement metrics.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ingresos$20.77B$23.71B$25.10B$26.19B+8.0%
Beneficio bruto$4.56B$4.98B$4.97B$5.22B+4.6%
Beneficio operativo$3.47B$3.92B$3.84B$4.14B+6.0%
Beneficio neto$2.36B$3.08B$2.38B$2.60B+3.3%
BPA (diluido)$7.24$10.18$8.33$9.51+9.5%
EBITDA$3.92B$4.38B$4.34B$4.80B+7.0%
I+D—————
SG&A$891.0M$867.0M$945.0M$870.0M-0.8%

Puntuaciones de calidad

Piotroski F-score
7 / 9
Compuesto de calidad 0–9
Altman Z-score
3.99
Riesgo de quiebra (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.55
Riesgo de manipulación de beneficios
OCF / Beneficio neto
1.24×
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Pass
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
24.9%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Flujo de caja

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

MAR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MAR looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $359 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $228 (range $152–$304), which implies roughly 36.5% downside to the midpoint.

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