Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $193, high $377, with mid-point at $275.
Stock analysis

MDB fair value $193–$377

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-10Próxima actualización: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
View archive
Precio
$299.47
▼ -24.03 (-8.02%)
Valor razonable
$275
$193–$377
Calificación
Mantener
confidence 77/100
Potencial alcista
-8.0%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$234.12
MoS level · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$24.1B
P/E fwd 42.5
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $275 with high case $377.
  • Implied downside of 8.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 77/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$275
Margin of safety
-8.7%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$299.47Price
Low $192.74
Mid $275.44
High $376.5

MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for embedded
    High switching costs for embedded core databases
  • Network effects within developer ecosystems
    Network effects within developer ecosystems
  • Cycle upside
    Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.

§2 Caso bajista

A contraction in IT budgets combined with hyperscalers bundling competing NoSQL products at steep discounts forces MDB to sacrifice margins. Compounded by massive stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., GAAP profitability remains elusive and terminal EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiples compress heavily.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Hyperscaler Commoditization

· Medium

AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.

FV impact
-30% to base
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Stagnation

· High

SBC and R&D requirements remain structurally elevated, preventing the modeled 25% long-term operating margin.

FV impact
-25% to base
Trigger
24-36 months

Multiple Compression

· Medium

Market abandons EV/Revenue anchoring for pre-profit software, applying mature PEG multiples.

FV impact
-60% to base
Trigger
6-12 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Atlas revenue growth decelerating below 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF-to-Net-Income divergence widening past -8xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 70%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share to AWS DocumentDBMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Ingresos$1.28B$1.68B$2.01B$2.46B+24.3%
Beneficio bruto$934.7M$1.26B$1.47B$1.77B+23.7%
Beneficio operativo$-346.7M$-233.7M$-216.1M$-137.0M—
Beneficio neto$-345.4M$-176.6M$-129.1M$-71.2M—
BPA (diluido)$-5.03$-2.48$-1.73$-0.88—
EBITDA$-294.3M$-122.0M$-96.5M$-15.2M—
I+D$421.7M$515.9M$596.8M$716.3M+19.3%
SG&A$859.7M$976.3M$1.09B$1.19B+11.4%

Puntuaciones de calidad

Piotroski F-score
5 / 9
Compuesto de calidad 0–9
Altman Z-score
18.58
Riesgo de quiebra (>3 seguro)
Beneish M-score
-2.86
Riesgo de manipulación de beneficios
OCF / Beneficio neto
-7.1
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
-0.0%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Flujo de caja

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Suscriptores individuales — desde §411 secciones más

Leer el análisis completo — 11 secciones más.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Informe completo para cada ticker cubierto
24 meses de archivo de calificaciones
Briefings de lista de seguimiento + alertas de cambio de calificación
Exportación PDF + DOCX en cualquier idioma
Comenzar prueba gratuita
Cancela cuando quieras.
SCENARIOS FAQ

MDB scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for MDB (MDB) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

MDB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDB screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $299 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $275 (range $193–$377), which implies roughly 8.0% downside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of MDB also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit