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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
NDAQ — frequently asked questions
Is Nasdaq, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 92,0 USD versus our fair value of 70,2 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 87,7 USD. That implies roughly 23.7% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives NDAQ a fair value of 70,2 USD and a potential value of 87,7 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Nasdaq, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy NDAQ now?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell. Nasdaq, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 92,0 USD versus fair value of 70,2 USD; potential value is 87,7 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for NDAQ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Nasdaq, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is NDAQ's rating?
Our latest published rating for NDAQ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 70,2 USD, the potential value of 87,7 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (92,0 USD).
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§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosSell
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$91.98
Valor razonable
$70.15
Valor potencial
$87.67
A fecha de
Fecha de cotización no registrada
Por qué puede funcionar
Bull: Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
Severe IPO Drought: A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Nasdaq is a mature quality compounder with highly recurring revenues from listings and data, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers. A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth.
Network effects in core exchange
Network effects in core exchange listings
High switching costs in data
High switching costs in data and analytics software
Cycle upside
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Sell. The current valuation embeds aggressive implied growth expectations that ignore a near-term revenue contraction, leaving the risk/reward profile skewed to the downside despite robust fundamentals.
Descripción general de la empresa
Nasdaq, Inc. operates as a technology company that serves capital markets and other industries in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. The company distributes historical and real-time market data; develops and licenses Nasdaq-branded indices and financial products; provides investor relations intelligence, governance solutions, and sustainability solution products for public and private companies, and organizations, as well as insights and workflow solutions; and operates listing platforms. It also offers Verafin, a cloud-based platform to detect, investigate, and report money laundering and financial frauds; AxiomSL, a risk data management and regulatory reporting solution; cloud-enabled and on-premises surveillance solutions to assist in complying with market rules, regulations, and internal market surveillance policies; Calypso, a platform providing cross-asset, front-to-back trading, treasury, risk, and collateral management solutions; and trade management and colocation services, as well as handles assets comprising cash equities, equity derivatives, currencies, various interest-bearing securities, commodities, energy products, and digital currencies. In addition, the company provides equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading and fixed income, currency and commodities trading, and fixed income trading and clearing services, as well as tape plan data services; operates various exchanges, including derivatives, commodities, cash equity, debt, structured products, and exchange traded products; and offers clearing, settlement, and central depository services. The company was formerly known as The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nasdaq, Inc. in September 2015. Nasdaq, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.
Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
Actual:29.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta si< 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($73.18). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime (Verafin) and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Warning level: < 25.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Persistent margin compression indicates elevated integration expenditures and higher structural operating costs following software acquisitions, eroding profitability benefits expected from SaaS business model transformation.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Ingresos más recientes8262 MCAGR de ingresos +9,9 %
Margen operativo29,4 %4 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente1989 MFY2025
Deuda neta8862 MFY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ingresos8262 MCoste de ventas−4773 MBeneficio bruto3489 MGastos operativos−1056 MBeneficio operativo2433 MPartidas no operativas e impuestos−645 MBeneficio neto1788 M
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
8.262.000.000
Coste de ventas
4.773.000.000
Beneficio bruto
3.489.000.000
Gastos operativos
1.056.000.000
Beneficio operativo
2.433.000.000
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-645.000.000
Beneficio neto
1.788.000.000
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales31,1 mil MEfectivo604 MActivos corrientes8003 MPasivos totales18,8 mil MPasivos corrientes7961 MPatrimonio neto12,2 mil M
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
31.053.000.000
Efectivo
604.000.000
Activos corrientes
8.003.000.000
Pasivos totales
18.821.000.000
Pasivos corrientes
7.961.000.000
Patrimonio neto
12.227.000.000
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-05-20.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2022-12-31
6226 M
1853 M
1125 M
1706 M
1554 M
152 M
258 M
106 M
633 M
383 M
-318 M
—
—
—
—
502 M
5851 M
26,7 %
—
7,2 %
—
2023-12-31
6064 M
1996 M
1059 M
1696 M
1538 M
158 M
323 M
122 M
269 M
441 M
4977 M
—
—
—
—
453 M
10,9 mil M
29,8 %
—
6,8 %
—
2024-12-31
7400 M
2460 M
1117 M
1939 M
1732 M
207 M
613 M
141 M
145 M
541 M
-812 M
—
—
—
—
592 M
9868 M
26,3 %
—
7,8 %
—
2025-12-31
8262 M
3131 M
1788 M
2255 M
1989 M
266 M
632 M
165 M
616 M
601 M
-826 M
—
—
—
—
604 M
9466 M
29,4 %
—
8,2 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable70,15 US$Report-date price91,98 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión60 / 100
S&P Global Inc.SPGI
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable355,55 US$Report-date price389,35 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión63 / 100
CME Group Inc.CME
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable261,16 US$Report-date price302,37 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión67 / 100
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable70,15 US$Report-date price91,98 US$
NDAQ trades at 20.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.4x; EV/EBITDA of 19.0x against a peer median of 21.5x; 6 peers.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Expansion
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
Ciclo alcista
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
Ciclo bajista
Prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, compressing high-margin transactional revenues.
Posicionamiento
Normal capital cycle phase with disciplined capex; high OCF conversion funds aggressive share repurchases and strategic M&A.
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
Given the -23.7% downside to the $70.15 mid-point fair value and explicit execution risks in the Year 1 revenue transition, the position warrants an underweight or avoid stance until the valuation normalizes.
Riesgo
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
Current / pullbacks
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
Wait for a broader market pullback or post-reshaping earnings disruption to compress the multiple toward the low-$60s.
Tramos de salida
Nivel
Acción
Thesis break
Trim existing positions into strength above $90, as reverse DCF implies flawless execution and 9.4% sustained growth is already priced in.
§12 Perspectivas de inversoresEN
Bull view
Buy
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
Base view
Sell
While Nasdaq boasts a wide moat and highly predictable mature software/data segment revenue, the current $91.98 price is stretched versus base fundamentals. Reverse DCF reveals the market is pricing in flawless execution, ignoring the near-term restructuring drag.
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Vender
Sell. The composite explicitly incorporates execution risk, blending strict intrinsic cash generation with normalized forward multiples, yielding a $70.15 mid-point.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months
Listing Share Erosion
Low
Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.
FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
Actual:11.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Alerta si< 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
03
Core Listing Market Share
Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
Actual:Dominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
Alerta siLoss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year
04
Market Data Pricing Freedom
Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
Actual:Unrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
Alerta si>= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year
Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
Actual:1.261 as of 2026-05-20
Alerta si< 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
A near-term revenue contraction driven by portfolio reshaping transitions into steady high-single-digit growth, with margins reverting to 40%.
11.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Por qué importa
Warning level: < 5.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Subdued top-line growth reveals persistent capital markets softness and sluggish expansion in financial technology solutions, dampening recurring subscription revenue momentum.
03
Métrica:
Core Listing Market Share
ActualDominant corporate listing share maintained as of 2026-05-20
Por qué importa
Warning level: Loss of > 5 headline Tier-1 corporate listings to rival exchanges within any fiscal year. Losing prominent listed corporate issuers damages premier exchange branding and impairs high-margin market data feed and trade execution volumes driven by index constituents.
04
Métrica:
Market Data Pricing Freedom
ActualUnrestricted proprietary market data pricing as of 2026-05-20
Por qué importa
Warning level: >= 1 regulatory fee cap or structural price control imposed on proprietary market data products by the SEC or ESMA within any fiscal year. Imposition of price caps on proprietary data feeds would compromise high-margin recurring income, shrinking non-transactional cash flows that buffer trading volume cyclicality.
Warning level: < 1.00x on a trailing twelve-month basis. Inadequate conversion of accounting profits into operating cash flow reveals adverse working capital expansion and limits debt deleveraging flexibility following major corporate acquisitions.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.ICE
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable133,03 US$Report-date price154,31 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión62 / 100
Moody's CorporationMCO
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable327,35 US$Report-date price441,36 US$
