Análisis opcionales del producto
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Natera, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $59.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 2.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -192.3M | |
| EPS (ttm) | -$1.37 | |
| Shares out | 144.1M | |
| P/E (forward) | 5000.0x | |
| Volume | 1,258,999 | |
| Beta | 1.50 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $625.5M | $820.2M | $1.08B | $1.70B | $2.31B | +38.6% |
| Gross profit | $307.1M | $364.0M | $492.7M | $1.02B | $1.50B | +48.6% |
| Operating income | $-468.2M | $-541.0M | $-446.2M | $-222.3M | $-309.9M | — |
| Net income | $-471.7M | $-547.8M | $-434.8M | $-190.4M | $-208.2M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-5.21 | $-5.57 | $-3.78 | $-1.53 | $-1.52 | — |
| EBITDA | $-451.5M | $-507.0M | $-383.3M | $-148.1M | $-220.5M | — |
| R&D | $264.2M | $316.4M | $320.7M | $404.1M | $624.1M | +24.0% |
| SG&A | $511.0M | $588.6M | $618.3M | $841.3M | $1.18B | +23.2% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the base case, revenue expands in line with consensus projections at 26.15% in FY2026 and 19.97% in FY2027, before decelerating toward 11.0% by FY2030 as domestic clinical adoption matures. Operating margins transition from -5.5% in FY2026 to positive 2.0% in FY2027 and normalize toward 16.0% by FY2030 as fixed laboratory overhead levers down. Capex scales down from FY2025 peak levels of $106.19M (3.2x D&A) toward maintenance intensity of 9.38% reinvestment rate in FY2030. Medicare reimbursement remains stable at ~13.6% of revenue. Under an equal-weighted synthesis of EV/revenue ($114.97) and FCFF DCF ($36.90) at a 10.40% WACC, Fair value is established at $75.94.
In the bull case, oncology test penetration and women's health volume accelerate beyond consensus expectations, sustaining strong double-digit annual revenue growth through FY2028. Fixed-cost absorption across high-throughput laboratory facilities drives gross margin expansion toward 70% and enables GAAP operating profitability ahead of expectations by FY2027. Rolling MolDX coverage decisions for pending submissions deliver an estimated $150 to $200 ASP expansion, while international launch in Japan broadens geographic diversification. Capex normalizes rapidly toward maintenance levels, generating substantial positive FCFF.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | $89.6 | $90.4 | $91.2 | $92.1 | $93.1 |
| 9.9% | $86.4 | $87.1 | $87.8 | $88.5 | $89.4 |
| 10.4% | $78.4 | $79.0 | $75.9 | $80.2 | $80.9 |
| 10.9% | $80.8 | $81.3 | $81.9 | $82.4 | $83.0 |
| 11.4% | $78.4 | $78.8 | $79.2 | $79.7 | $80.2 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
La calificación que llevaba la edición de análisis publicada cada mes. Una calificación compara el precio en la fecha del análisis con el valor razonable; no es un registro de si la valoración acertó.
| Año | ene | feb | mar | abr | may | jun | jul | ago | sept | oct | nov | dic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
