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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
PPG — frequently asked questions
Is PPG Industries Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-07, PPG screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 105 USD versus our fair value of 99,5 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 125 USD. That implies roughly 5.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, gives PPG a fair value of 99,5 USD and a potential value of 125 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for PPG Industries Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy PPG now?
Our latest published rating for PPG, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Hold. PPG Industries Inc. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of 105 USD versus fair value of 99,5 USD; potential value is 125 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for PPG?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-07 documents PPG Industries Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is PPG's rating?
Our latest published rating for PPG, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 99,5 USD, the potential value of 125 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (105 USD).
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.
§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosHold
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$105.07
Valor razonable
$99.48
Valor potencial
$125.29
A fecha de
2026-10-07
Por qué puede funcionar
Accelerating global manufacturing production and automotive OEM volume recovery driving operating margins toward 15.0%.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
Severe cyclical downturn in automotive OEM assembly rates coupled with prolonged manufacturing stagnation across Europe,.
We rate PPG Industries Inc. a Hold. The company combines market leadership in automotive OEM and aerospace coatings with reliable free cash flow conversion of $1,163M, but near-term upside is capped by persistent European manufacturing weakness and cyclical volume softness in automotive builds,,.5,7
Our rating is Hold. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation means maintaining an existing allocation without committing fresh capital, as the stock is reasonably valued against its cyclical earnings power.4
On the analysis date of October 7, 2026, the report was prepared with the shares priced at $105.07. At this price, the shares trade at a modest 5.6% premium to our Fair value of $99.48, representing 5.3% downside. If cyclical manufacturing demand recovers and expands margins, the shares could achieve our of $125.29, offering 19.2% upside.
The single risk that would change our view is a prolonged decline in global automotive assembly builds combined with ongoing European industrial stagnation,. Industrial Coatings accounts for 41.1% of net sales ($6,524M), and EMEA accounts for 33.8% ($5,368M),. If volume declines prevent fixed manufacturing plants from being fully utilized, consolidated operating margins would compress below 11.5% and free cash flow would contract below $800M, forcing a reduction in share repurchases,.4,5,7
The primary catalyst that could drive performance toward our Potential value is volume recovery and margin execution across Industrial Coatings and Performance Coatings,. In FY2025, PPG converted $1,941M of operating cash flow into $1,163M of free cash flow while investing $778M in capital expenditures,,. If manufacturing demand accelerates and raw material costs remain stable, operating margins would expand toward 15.0%, lifting free cash flow above $1.4B and supporting anti-dilutive share repurchases that raise earnings per share,.4,5,6,7
Switching Costs
Automotive OEM coatings ($6,524M segment revenue) and aerospace coatings ($5,513M Performance Coatings) require extensive formulation qualification and deep integration into customer assembly processes,.7
Proprietary resin chemistries, specialized aerospace barrier coatings, and patented electrocoat technologies provide technical differentiation.7
Cost Advantage
Global production network and regional supply chains across North America, EMEA, and Asia Pacific provide local distribution and raw material scale efficiencies,.7
Recomendación de la casa
We rate PPG Industries a Hold because the shares trade within 5.6% of Fair value, where dependable free cash flow conversion of $1,163M is counterbalanced by ongoing European industrial weakness and cyclical automotive build uncertainty,,.4,5,7
Descripción general de la empresa
PPG Industries Inc. is a global manufacturer of paints, coatings, and specialty materials founded in 1883. The company supplies protective coatings, decorative finishes, and surface technologies designed to enhance durability, aesthetics, and sustainability across a broad spectrum of commercial and industrial applications.
The company serves customers across diverse end-use markets and geographic regions worldwide. Key customer groups include automotive original equipment manufacturers, commercial and military aerospace builders, packaging container producers, and general industrial fabricators,. PPG operates technical laboratories located near customer production facilities to formulate customized coatings that meet strict regulatory and operational specifications.
PPG manages its operations through reportable business segments that include Industrial Coatings, Performance Coatings, and Global Architectural Coatings. Each segment incorporates dedicated research and development teams and customer technical service networks to sustain product innovation and preserve customer integration over multi-year manufacturing cycles,.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
In a severe combined stress scenario, prolonged European manufacturing contraction and automotive OEM assembly cuts reduce Industrial Coatings revenue while input costs remain sticky. If consolidated operating margins fall to 11.4% and revenue growth decelerates to 0.74%, annual free cash flow contracts below $800M. This compression restricts capital return capacity and leaves less flexibility to service $7,468M of total debt, triggering valuation multiple compression toward 11.60x forward earnings.
Protracted manufacturing stagnation across Europe and key export markets
Operating margin compression from automotive build cuts and fixed overhead under-absorption
Free cash flow compression restricting capital returns and share repurchases
A downside scenario exists where prolonged manufacturing stagnation across EMEA and slower industrial activity in Asia restrict volume growth in Industrial Coatings. Under this path, customer pricing resistance and plant under-absorption compress operating margins, while free cash flow generation contracts and limits capital return capacity. Investors would observe this deterioration through consecutive quarters of international volume contraction and gross margin erosion through FY2026.
Cómo puede fallar esta tesis
Severe automotive OEM build cut and industrial under-absorption
Industrial Coatings contributed $6,524M or 41.1% of consolidated net sales in FY2025. If automotive OEM assembly rates drop significantly, operating margin will compress 300 bps below the current 14.4% level toward 11.4%.4,7
FV impact
-7.7%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
Operating margin falling below 11.5% confirms severe fixed manufacturing overhead under-absorption and competitive pricing concessions across Industrial Coatings.
Actual:14.4%
Alerta si<11.5%
02
§3 Foso competitivoEN
Narrow
PPG possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by customer switching costs in automotive OEM and aerospace coatings, proprietary resin formulation intangibles, and global manufacturing scale,.
In Industrial Coatings ($6,524M in FY2025) and Performance Coatings ($5,513M), coatings are heavily integrated into customer production processes, where switching involves costly qualification audits and operational disruption. Scale across EMEA ($5,368M) and North America ($5,372M) provides regional supply security and distribution advantages,.
01Switching Costs — Automotive OEM coatings ($6,524M segment revenue) and aerospace coatings ($5,513M Performance Coatings) require extensive formulation qualification and deep integration into customer assembly processes,.Moderate
02Intangible Assets — Proprietary resin chemistries, specialized aerospace barrier coatings, and patented electrocoat technologies provide technical differentiation.Moderate
03Cost Advantage — Global production network and regional supply chains across North America, EMEA, and Asia Pacific provide local distribution and raw material scale efficiencies,.Narrow
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
Intense competitive pricing from peers like Sherwin-Williams in architectural and industrial coatings
medium
12-24 months
Focus on higher-specification industrial OEM coatings and aerospace technologies with high qualification barriers.7
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($99.48). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.4B after modeled reinvestment of $367.8M, with terminal value at 77.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the Base case, Fair value reaches $99.48, representing an expected return of -5.3% with an assigned probability of 55.0%. This trajectory assumes moderate organic revenue expansion led by Latin America and Asia Pacific offsetting sluggish European volumes, while operating margins normalize near house forecast expectations. Confirmation requires steady operating cash flow conversion and volume stabilization in Industrial Coatings through FY2026. The path would be disconfirmed if automotive OEM builds contract sharply or European industrial weakness deepens.
Synchronized acceleration in global industrial production and automotive builds
Operating margin expansion driven by manufacturing efficiencies and pricing discipline
Accelerated free cash flow generation and accretive share repurchases
§7 Árbol de decisión de resultadosEN
Superado
Upgrade the rating; Review portfolio allocation and evaluate whether margin expansion persists across subsequent quarters.
Disparador: Consolidated organic sales growth accelerating above prior-year rates with operating margin expanding across both Industrial Coatings and Performance Coatings.
Demonstrates pricing durability and volume recovery in automotive OEM, driving cash conversion above modeled expectations toward $125.29.
En línea
Maintain Hold; Maintain current portfolio allocation and track European volume demand and raw material cost trends.
Earnings quality is supported by operating cash flow converting cleanly relative to net income. Working capital management has been disciplined, with receivables and inventory tracking revenue changes closely. Operating cash flow fully covers reported net earnings, indicating low reliance on non-cash accounting accruals.
Evolución de las estimaciones
Consensus earnings estimates have remained steady following the latest earnings release. Diluted earnings per share estimates across the forecast horizon are unchanged, reflecting a balance between resilient Performance Coatings demand and ongoing industrial softness in European end-markets.
PPG generated $1,941M in operating cash flow in FY2025, up significantly from $1,420M in FY2024. Capital expenditures of $778M represented 4.9% of revenue, resulting in free cash flow of $1,163M. Working capital management contributed favorably, and free cash flow comfortably covered cash dividends of $628M and share repurchases of $790M.5,6
Asignación de capital
Management maintains a balanced capital allocation framework. In FY2025, operating cash flow funded $778M of capex, $628M of dividends, and $790M in share buybacks. Total debt of $7,468M is supported by $2,163M in . Capital deployment prioritizes organic growth and productivity investments, followed by steady dividend growth and anti-dilutive share repurchases.
ROIC of 12.09% reflects solid capital efficiency and disciplined asset utilization following portfolio optimization, supporting sustained economic value added.
ROIC of 12.09% comfortably exceeds the computed WACC of 8.33% and moderate cost of equity of 9.57%, generating positive economic spread of approximately 376 bps.
Ingresos más recientes15,9 mil M US$CAGR de ingresos +1,2 %
Margen operativo13,7 %10 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente1163 M US$FY2025
Deuda neta5078 M US$FY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.30 jun 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ingresos4495 M US$Coste de ventas−2687 M US$Beneficio bruto1808 M US$Gastos operativos−1172 M US$Beneficio operativo636 M US$Partidas no operativas e impuestos−199 M US$Beneficio neto437 M US$
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
4.495.000.000 US$
Coste de ventas
2.687.000.000 US$
Beneficio bruto
1.808.000.000 US$
Gastos operativos
1.172.000.000 US$
Beneficio operativo
636.000.000 US$
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-199.000.000 US$
Beneficio neto
437.000.000 US$
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales22,1 mil M US$Efectivo2163 M US$Activos corrientes7959 M US$Pasivos totales14 mil M US$Pasivos corrientes4900 M US$Patrimonio neto8097 M US$
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
22.098.000.000 US$
Efectivo
2.163.000.000 US$
Activos corrientes
7.959.000.000 US$
Pasivos totales
14.001.000.000 US$
Pasivos corrientes
4.900.000.000 US$
Patrimonio neto
8.097.000.000 US$
Puente de flujo de cajaCómo el flujo de caja operativo se convirtió en flujo de caja libre en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Conciliación del flujo operativo
Beneficio neto1576 M US$Depreciación y amortización+528 M US$Compensación basada en acciones+46 M US$Otros ajustes operativos−209 M US$Flujo de caja operativo1941 M US$
Conciliación del efectivo inicial al final
Efectivo inicial1270 M US$Flujo de caja operativo+1941 M US$Flujo de inversión−700 M US$Flujo de financiación−545 M US$Efecto del tipo de cambio+197 M US$Efectivo final2163 M US$
1941 M US$ − 778 M US$Flujo de caja libre 1163 M US$
Datos del puente de flujo de caja
Beneficio neto
1.576.000.000 US$
Entrada operativa
2.150.000.000 US$
Depreciación y amortización
528.000.000 US$
Compensación basada en acciones
46.000.000 US$
Flujo de caja operativo
1.941.000.000 US$
Salida operativa
209.000.000 US$
Efectivo disponible
3.408.000.000 US$
Efectivo inicial
1.270.000.000 US$
Efecto del tipo de cambio
197.000.000 US$
Salida de inversión
700.000.000 US$
Salida de financiación
545.000.000 US$
Emisión neta de deuda
903.000.000 US$
Recompras de acciones
790.000.000 US$
Dividendos pagados
628.000.000 US$
Otras actividades de financiación
30.000.000 US$
Efectivo final
2.163.000.000 US$
Flujo de inversión
-700.000.000 US$
Flujo de financiación
-545.000.000 US$
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
15,9 mil M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción
Industrial Coatings6524 M US$41,1 %−2,4 % interanual
Performance Coatings5513 M US$34,7 %+5,3 % interanual
Global Architectural Coatings3838 M US$24,2 %−2,1 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
Industrial Coatings
6524 M US$
41,1 %
-2,4 %
Performance Coatings
5513 M US$
34,7 %
5,3 %
Global Architectural Coatings
3838 M US$
24,2 %
-2,1 %
Ingresos por regiónProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
15,9 mil M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por regiónProporción
North America5372 M US$33,8 %+0,4 % interanual
EMEA5368 M US$33,8 %−0,3 % interanual
Asia Pacific2937 M US$18,5 %+0,9 % interanual
Latin America2198 M US$13,8 %+0,1 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por región
Ingresos por región
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
North America
5372 M US$
33,8 %
0,4 %
EMEA
5368 M US$
33,8 %
-0,3 %
Asia Pacific
2937 M US$
18,5 %
0,9 %
Latin America
2198 M US$
13,8 %
0,1 %
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-10-07.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
14,3 mil M US$
1344 M US$
873 M US$
1351 M US$
971 M US$
380 M US$
440 M US$
45 M US$
1050 M US$
414 M US$
—
436 M US$
-1210 M US$
—
1820 M US$
1863 M US$
4299 M US$
16,7 %
—
6,6 %
—
2017-12-31
14,7 mil M US$
2570 M US$
1594 M US$
1568 M US$
1208 M US$
360 M US$
460 M US$
35 M US$
813 M US$
434 M US$
—
-67 M US$
-1954 M US$
1820 M US$
1436 M US$
1491 M US$
4123 M US$
15,5 %
—
6,7 %
—
2018-12-31
15,4 mil M US$
2308 M US$
1341 M US$
1467 M US$
1056 M US$
411 M US$
497 M US$
37 M US$
1721 M US$
453 M US$
—
-764 M US$
-1205 M US$
1436 M US$
902 M US$
963 M US$
5000 M US$
13,8 %
—
6,2 %
—
2019-12-31
15,1 mil M US$
2304 M US$
1243 M US$
2080 M US$
1667 M US$
413 M US$
511 M US$
39 M US$
325 M US$
468 M US$
—
-1009 M US$
-758 M US$
902 M US$
1216 M US$
1273 M US$
5031 M US$
15,0 %
—
5,7 %
—
2020-12-31
13,8 mil M US$
2009 M US$
1059 M US$
2130 M US$
1826 M US$
304 M US$
509 M US$
44 M US$
0 US$
496 M US$
—
-1447 M US$
-59 M US$
1216 M US$
1826 M US$
1922 M US$
5334 M US$
15,2 %
—
4,6 %
—
2021-12-31
16,8 mil M US$
2497 M US$
1439 M US$
1562 M US$
1191 M US$
371 M US$
561 M US$
57 M US$
210 M US$
536 M US$
—
-2404 M US$
93 M US$
1826 M US$
992 M US$
1072 M US$
6565 M US$
12,9 %
—
5,2 %
—
2022-12-31
15,6 mil M US$
2024 M US$
1026 M US$
963 M US$
477 M US$
486 M US$
502 M US$
34 M US$
190 M US$
570 M US$
377 M US$
-461 M US$
-409 M US$
992 M US$
1083 M US$
1154 M US$
6796 M US$
13,1 %
—
7,4 %
—
2023-12-31
16,2 mil M US$
2451 M US$
1270 M US$
2411 M US$
1895 M US$
516 M US$
514 M US$
56 M US$
86 M US$
598 M US$
-850 M US$
-556 M US$
-1550 M US$
1083 M US$
1493 M US$
1568 M US$
6042 M US$
16,5 %
—
7,7 %
—
2024-12-31
15,8 mil M US$
2585 M US$
1116 M US$
1420 M US$
699 M US$
721 M US$
492 M US$
42 M US$
752 M US$
622 M US$
-26 M US$
107 M US$
-1425 M US$
1493 M US$
1270 M US$
1358 M US$
5801 M US$
14,4 %
—
8,1 %
—
2025-12-31
15,9 mil M US$
2814 M US$
1576 M US$
1941 M US$
1163 M US$
778 M US$
528 M US$
46 M US$
790 M US$
628 M US$
903 M US$
-700 M US$
-545 M US$
1270 M US$
2163 M US$
2219 M US$
7297 M US$
13,7 %
—
7,3 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
PPG Industries Inc.PPG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable99,48 US$Report-date price105,07 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión61 / 100
The Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable153,67 US$Report-date price329,1 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión59 / 100
Ecolab Inc.ECL
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable203,99 US$Report-date price273,7 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión62 / 100
PPG Industries Inc.PPG
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable99,48 US$Report-date price105,07 US$
PPG Industries Inc. (PPG) trades at 12.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 22.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.0x compares with a peer median of 18.6x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals Inc. and International Flavors & Fragrances Inc., as of 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Expansion
Industry capex-to-depreciation of 1.55 and capex-to-revenue of 4.1% demonstrate active reinvestment above maintenance levels across specialty chemicals and coatings.
Ciclo alcista
A synchronized global manufacturing upturn and automotive production recovery drive organic volume expansion, while declining raw material prices widen gross margins and operating leverage accelerates earnings.
Ciclo bajista
Persistent European industrial contraction and slowing automotive builds lead to volume declines, fixed-cost under-absorption, and margin compression, exacerbated by currency translation headwinds.
Tendencias seculares
Tendencia
Impacto
Nota
Transition to Sustainable and Low-VOC Coatings
positive
Tightening environmental regulations globally drive customer demand for waterborne, high-solids, and powder coatings, favoring scaled innovators like PPG with advanced formulation capabilities.
Automotive OEM Lightweighting and Electric Vehicle Adoption
positive
Electric vehicle battery pack fire protection coatings, dielectric coatings, and composite bonding expand content per vehicle in Industrial Coatings.
European Industrial Stagnation and De-industrialization
negative
High energy costs and sluggish manufacturing in Europe dampen long-term demand growth across EMEA, which represents $5,368M of net sales.
Posicionamiento
PPG holds leading global market positions in Industrial Coatings ($6,524M) and Performance Coatings ($5,513M). Its balanced geographic footprint spans EMEA (33.8%), North America (33.8%), Asia Pacific (18.5%), and Latin America (13.8%), providing operational diversification against localized downturns.7
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
2-3%
Under our Hold rating, existing positions should be maintained without adding fresh capital. The shares trade near fair value, balancing reliable free cash flow conversion against cyclical European headwinds and automotive volume uncertainty.
Riesgo
Investors should maintain strict position limits given cyclical exposure to automotive and European manufacturing end-markets. Key portfolio risks include margin compression from automotive build cuts, currency translation headwinds from strong USD, and refinancing costs on $7,468M of total debt. Position sizing should remain disciplined until organic revenue growth accelerates sustainably.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
$85.00 - $90.00
Consider initial accumulation
Provides a discount to our base Fair value of $99.48, establishing an attractive entry multiple on normalized earnings power.
Below $80.00
Increase allocation
Represents a substantial discount to intrinsic value, offering asymmetrical risk-reward supported by cash flow conversion.
Trading at $105.07 against our Fair value of $99.48, PPG offers an NTM P/E of 12.41x but lacks a sufficient discount to intrinsic value,,. Existing positions should be maintained for steady free cash flow of $1,163M, with incremental buying deferred until prices pull back below $90.00.4,5
Growth Perspective
Hold
Consolidated revenue was essentially flat at $15,875M in FY2025, and consensus estimates expect moderate top-line growth of 5.74% in FY2026 and 3.22% in FY2027,. Growth investors should maintain existing exposure and withhold fresh capital until European manufacturing and automotive build rates show clear volume acceleration.1,6,7
Core / Income Perspective
Hold
PPG provides reliable shareholder cash returns, supported by $1,941M of operating cash flow that fully covered $628M in dividends and $790M in share buybacks in FY2025,. Core total return investors can hold existing shares to capture steady yield and buyback accretion.6
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Mantener
We recommend a Hold on PPG Industries Inc. At $105.07 on October 7, 2026, the stock trades at a 5.6% premium to our Fair value of $99.48,. The company's established competitive advantages in Industrial Coatings ($6,524M in FY2025 revenue) and Performance Coatings ($5,513M) deliver reliable free cash flow of $1,163M,,. However, persistent European industrial manufacturing stagnation and cyclic softness in global automotive OEM builds cap near-term margin expansion and justify maintaining existing exposure without adding fresh capital,.4,5,7
Investors should hold current positions at recommended portfolio weightings of 2% to 3%. We advise waiting for valuation pullbacks into the $85.00 to $90.00 range before initiating new positions, which would provide an adequate margin of safety against potential cyclical demand shocks. If a synchronized global manufacturing rebound drives the stock toward our Potential value of $125.29, investors should look to trim or harvest profits.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Protracted European manufacturing stagnation and strong USD translation headwind
EMEA represents $5,368M (33.8% of sales) and total international sales exceed 66%. Ongoing European industrial weakness and currency drag would reduce annual revenue growth by 500 bps from the 5.74% consensus baseline down to 0.74%.1,7
FV impact
-8.8%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
PPG currently trades at forward P/E of 12.41x against peer median of 22.27x. If structural gross margins remain compressed below peers like Sherwin-Williams at 48.98%, exit P/E derates 20% from modeled 14.50x to 11.60x.3,4
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (27,16 US$) plus discounted terminal value (95,87 US$) minus signed per current share (22,84 US$) equals the 100 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the Bull case, Potential value reaches $125.29, offering an implied return of 19.2% with a probability of 20.0%. This path requires synchronized global industrial acceleration, automotive OEM volume recovery, and raw material cost stability that expands operating margins toward peak historical levels. Investors would confirm this scenario by observing accelerating volume growth across both Industrial and Performance Coatings during FY2026. This case would be disconfirmed by renewed raw material inflation or failure to gain operating leverage.
PPG's gross margins trail specialty peers such as Sherwin-Williams at 48.98% and Ecolab at 44.21%.
Automotive OEM customer concentration and commodity raw material exposure limit gross margin expansion relative to pure architectural or specialty peers.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.APD
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable251,01 US$Report-date price273,33 US$
Review pricing pass-through effectiveness and demote gross margin trajectory.
Accelerating global manufacturing production and automotive OEM volume recovery driving operating margins toward 15.0%. Supported by aerospace coatings backlogs in Performance Coatings ($5,513M in FY2025 revenue) and input cost stabilization, annual free cash flow expansion above $1.4B would enable accelerated share buybacks and support valuation upside toward our Potential value of $125.29,,.