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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
RHI — frequently asked questions
Is Robert Half Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-17, RHI looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 33,3 USD versus our fair value of 28,3 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 32,8 USD. That implies roughly 15.2% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-17, gives RHI a fair value of 28,3 USD and a potential value of 32,8 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Robert Half Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy RHI now?
Our latest published rating for RHI, analyzed 2026-10-17, is Reduce. Robert Half Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 33,3 USD versus fair value of 28,3 USD; potential value is 32,8 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for RHI?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-17 documents Robert Half Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is RHI's rating?
Our latest published rating for RHI, analyzed 2026-10-17, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 6/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 28,3 USD, the potential value of 32,8 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (33,3 USD).
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§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosReduce
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$33.31
Valor razonable
$28.25
Valor potencial
$32.84
A fecha de
2026-10-16
Por qué puede funcionar
A synchronized global recovery in enterprise white-collar hiring and corporate digital transformation projects, which would unlock aggressive operational leverage on Robert Half's rationalized cost base ($45M annualized savings) and propel operating margins from 1.42% in FY2025 back toward historical double-digit levels.
Qué cambiaría nuestra opinión
Protracted regulatory deregulation in financial services anti-money laundering compliance combined with persistent public-sector project roll-offs in Germany.
Robert Half Inc. is navigating the cyclical trough of a severe professional staffing downturn, but with shares trading at $33.31 compared to our Fair value of $28.25, the market has prematurely discounted an aggressive margin recovery despite ongoing consulting headwinds at Protiviti.
Robert Half is demonstrating operational resilience at the trough of the professional staffing cycle. Second-quarter 2026 results showed contract talent gross margins holding firm at 39.1%, matching the prior-year period, as bill-pay spreads remained protected. Management took decisive cost restructuring actions in Q2, absorbing $7 million in severance to unlock $45 million in annualized operating savings. Furthermore, Talent Solutions achieved its third consecutive quarter of sequential adjusted revenue growth, indicating that the rate of decline in temp staffing has firmly bottomed.
Nevertheless, material headwinds cloud the velocity of earnings expansion. Protiviti, previously the company's high-margin growth engine, has slipped into contraction, with reported revenues falling 4.9% in Q2 2026 and management guiding for a 4% to 8% contraction (target -6%) in Q3 2026. This consulting drag stems from shifting regulatory enforcement in anti-money laundering and banking compliance, alongside large public sector project roll-offs in Germany. With international operations ($1.21B FY2025 revenue) pressured and executive leadership transitioning at Protiviti, consolidated operating margins face friction.5,8
From a valuation perspective, current market pricing reflects undue optimism. At $33.31 per share, Robert Half trades at 16.69x forward earnings and a 17.9% premium to our intrinsic fair value midpoint of $28.25. While a pristine balance sheet with $324.7M in cash, $240.8M in debt, and a $2.36 annual dividend limit solvency risk, expected risk-adjusted return stands at -15.2%. We therefore issue a Reduce rating, advising investors to trim holdings on liquidity strength.2,4
Robert Half generates robust free cash flow through downturns ($266.8M in FY2025) due to minimal capex requirements (0.99% of revenue) and countercyclical working capital release.6,7
Solid Balance Sheet and Dividend Support
With $324.7M in cash and modest total debt of $240.8M (6.6% debt weight), the company comfortably supports its $2.36 annual dividend.2
A synchronized recovery in professional hiring would leverage the $45M structural cost reduction, driving operating margins from 1.42% in FY2025 toward historical mid-cycle levels.5,7
Recomendación de la casa
Reduce. Trim exposure into near-term strength and reallocate capital toward assets offering an adequate margin of safety.
Descripción general de la empresa
Robert Half Inc. (NYSE: RHI) is the world's first and largest specialized talent solutions and business consulting firm. Founded in 1948 and headquartered in Menlo Park, California, the company connects highly skilled job seekers with enterprise opportunities across specialized finance and accounting, technology, legal, marketing, and administrative disciplines. Robert Half operates through three core reporting segments: Contract Talent Solutions ($2.99B revenue in FY2025), Permanent Placement Talent Solutions ($439.5M revenue), and Protiviti ($1.95B revenue).
Protiviti, the company's global consulting subsidiary, delivers internal audit, risk advisory, digital transformation, and business consulting solutions, serving more than 80% of Fortune 100 corporations. Geographically, Robert Half generates the vast majority of its business in the United States ($4.17B in FY2025), complemented by established international operations across Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America ($1.21B in FY2025). The enterprise differentiates itself through combined staffing and consulting capabilities, deep client relationships, and an asset-light operating model.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
Our downside stress testing evaluates the compound vulnerability of Robert Half to a protracted professional services contraction. In this scenario, corporate enterprise hiring remains frozen through 2027, preventing the expected cyclical volume recovery in Contract Talent Solutions ($2.99B FY2025 revenue). Concurrently, Protiviti consulting revenue contracts at an accelerated mid-single-digit pace as regulatory enforcement scrutiny in banking and anti-money laundering is relaxed and European public sector roll-offs fail to be replaced. Under these strained conditions, the $45 million in annualized structural cost savings achieved in Q2 2026 is completely absorbed by negative operating deleverage, keeping consolidated operating margins suppressed below 3.8% across the forecast horizon rather than recovering toward mid-cycle levels of 6.8%. This structural margin cap, coupled with multiple compression to 12.0x exit P/E on recruitment disintermediation concerns, generates severe downside risk from the October 16, 2026 share price ($33.31), well below the committee fair value estimate.
Protiviti consulting revenue contracts mid-single digits annually on regulatory roll-offs5
Consolidated operating margins fail to exceed low-single-digit levels across the forecast horizon
Terminal valuation multiple derates substantially below historical average on AI talent discovery disruption
In the bear scenario, corporate white-collar hiring remains frozen across North America and Europe. Protiviti consulting contracts mid-single digits as financial services AML deregulation reduces advisory demand. Squeezed bill-pay spreads and high fixed overhead constrain operating margins to low-single digits, preventing recovery toward historical mid-cycle profitability.
Cómo puede fallar esta tesis
Protracted White-Collar Hiring Stagnation and Protiviti Deleveraging
FY2025 operating margin was 1.42%. If Protiviti consulting contracts -6% due to regulatory deregulation in AML and Talent Solutions hiring remains sluggish, normalized margins fail to exceed 3.8%.5,7
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
Robert Half possesses a narrow economic moat established over decades of specialization in finance, accounting, and professional business staffing. The core source of this advantage is local candidate network density and institutional brand equity. In professional contract talent solutions, enterprise clients require pre-vetted, high-quality candidates on short notice, which requires extensive relational networks and proprietary matching capabilities. This specialized focus allows Robert Half to defend bill-pay spreads across economic cycles, as evidenced by contract talent gross margins holding firmly at 39.1% in Q2 2026, exactly matching the 39.1% achieved in Q2 2025.
The company's moat is further reinforced by Protiviti, its wholly owned global business consulting subsidiary. Protiviti provides internal audit, risk consulting, and technology services to premier corporations ($1.95B revenue in FY2025). Protiviti's consulting engagements generate high-margin advisory billings and create joint go-to-market opportunities through blended staffing and consulting projects. These integrated solutions elevate customer switching costs relative to commoditized temporary staffing providers.
Nevertheless, the economic moat remains narrow rather than wide due to the lack of contractual exclusivity and modest entry barriers for boutique staffing agencies. Clients typically engage staffing firms on non-exclusive, short-term assignments. While Robert Half's operational efficiency and candidate depth ensure durable mid-cycle profitability, pricing discipline is continually tested during broad cyclical downturns when larger competitors, such as the Big Four, aggressively bid for market share.
Beneficio económico
During the cyclical peak in FY2021-FY2022, Robert Half generated operating margins of 12.47% and 12.30%, yielding economic profits far exceeding its cost of capital. However, the severe staffing downturn compressed FY2025 operating income to $76.46M (1.42% margin), generating returns temporarily below the moderate WACC of 8.8863%. As operating margins normalize toward 4.50% in FY2027 and 6.80% in FY2030, economic value creation is projected to recover, underpinned by minimal reinvestment requirements.2,7
6/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Specialized Candidate Network Density & Brand Reputation — Robert Half is the established pioneer in specialized finance and accounting staffing ($2.99B contract talent revenue in FY2025), maintaining proprietary candidate databases and local branch recruiter relationships that support consistent bill-pay spread discipline (39.1% gross margin in Q2 2026).Moderate
02Integrated Consulting Platform (Protiviti) & Blended Solution Capabilities — Protiviti provides internal audit, risk advisory, and technology consulting solutions ($1.95B FY2025 revenue), serving over 80% of Fortune 100 corporations. The integration of consulting expertise with contract talent enables blended solutions that traditional staffing agencies cannot match.
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
AI and automated talent discovery platforms disintermediating transactional placement and eroding recruiter placement spreads.
medium
2-4 years
Management blends proprietary high-tech AI matching algorithms with experienced recruiter high-touch validation, shifting practice mix toward higher-level specialized professionals.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($28.25). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $77.1M after modeled reinvestment of $10.5M, with terminal value at 80.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
FY2026 revenue of $5.31B (-1.27%) and FY2027 revenue of $5.53B (+4.14%)1
Consolidated operating margin recovers from cyclical trough levels in FY2025 through staged expansion in FY2026 and FY2027 toward mid-cycle profitability by FY2030
Consensus EPS tracks $1.26 in FY2026 and $1.97 in FY20271
In the modal base scenario, revenue stabilizes in FY2026 at $5.31B and expands to $5.53B in FY2027. Operating margins recover from the 1.42% FY2025 trough to 2.50% in FY2026 and 4.50% in FY2027, supported by $45M in annualized cost savings. Diluted EPS reaches $1.26 in FY2026 and $1.97 in FY2027. Intrinsic fair value centers at $28.25.1,5,7
Consolidated revenue growth accelerates to mid-to-high single digits annually over FY2027 through FY2029
Operating margin reaches 8.5% by FY2030, supported by mix shift toward higher-level placements
§7 Árbol de decisión de resultadosEN
Superado
Maintain Reduce; Maintain position reduction; do not deploy fresh capital on initial volume beats until full-year margin expansion durability is verified.
Disparador: Q3 2026 consolidated revenue exceeding $1.41B and EPS exceeding $0.53, accompanied by Protiviti YoY growth turning positive.5
A top- and bottom-line beat would confirm that the $45 million in annualized cost savings is dropping to the bottom line, but at $33.31, the stock trades well ahead of our fair value midpoint of $28.25. Stance remains unchanged.
En línea
Maintain Reduce; Continue trimming existing holdings on any liquidity spikes; monitor European project roll-offs and bill-pay spreads.
Disparador: Q3 2026 revenue within $1.31B-$1.41B (midpoint $1.36B) and EPS within $0.43-$0.53, with Protiviti revenue down 4% to 8%.5
In-line results would validate the baseline stabilization path but fail to justify the stock's 17.9% market premium over intrinsic fair value ($33.31 vs $28.25). Stance remains unchanged.
Fallo
Downgrade the rating; Downgrade rating immediately and execute complete liquidation of remaining tactical holdings.
Disparador: Q3 2026 revenue below $1.31B, EPS below $0.43, or Protiviti revenue contraction worse than -8%.5
A quarterly miss indicates that regulatory AML headwinds in banking and German public-sector weakness are exacerbating operating deleverage, placing FY2026 EBIT targets at immediate risk.
Calidad de los beneficios
Reported GAAP operating income exhibits artificial volatility due to mark-to-market adjustments on employee deferred compensation plan trusts (e.g. $100.9M investment loss in Q2 2026 producing a GAAP operating loss of -$62.3M). However, core operating earnings quality is strong when adjusted for these offsetting non-operational items (Q2 2026 adjusted operating income was $38.6M). Free cash flow conversion is outstanding ($266.81M FCF in FY2025), supported by countercyclical working capital release and negligible capex ($53.16M).6,7
Evolución de las estimaciones
Consensus earnings expectations have flattened following the Q2 2026 earnings release, with post-earnings consensus FY2026 EPS steady at $1.26 and FY2027 EPS steady at $1.97 across the October 15-17 tracking window. Revenue expectations remain anchored at $5.31B for FY2026 (-1.27% YoY) and $5.53B for FY2027 (+4.14% YoY), reflecting analyst consensus that top-line contraction has stabilized without establishing clear expansion momentum.1
Robert Half demonstrated strong cash conversion in FY2025, generating operating cash flow of $319.97M and free cash flow of $266.81M. The asset-light business model required only $53.16M in capital expenditures (0.99% of revenue). In the first six months of 2026, capex remained constrained at $15.65M, tracking within full-year guidance of $50M to $70M. Free cash flow conversion benefits from countercyclical working capital inflows as receivables contract during downturns.5,6
Operating margins collapsed from 12.30% in FY2022 and 7.27% in FY2023 to 1.42% in FY2025, depressing returns on invested capital. As EBIT margins recover toward 2.50% in FY2026 ($132.75M EBIT) and 4.50% in FY2027 ($248.85M EBIT), ROIC is poised to rebound off cyclical trough levels.
In FY2025, operating profit of $76.46M produced returns below the moderate WACC of 8.8863%. Forecasted FY2027 NOPAT of $169.22M begins restoring value creation comfortably above capital costs.
Ingresos más recientes5378,5 M US$CAGR de ingresos +0,3 %
Margen operativo1,4 %10 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente266,8 M US$FY2025
Caja neta43,2 M US$FY2025
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.30 jun 2026
Ingresos1336,4 M US$Coste de ventas−862,3 M US$Beneficio bruto474 M US$Gastos operativos−536,3 M US$Beneficio operativo-62,3 M US$Partidas no operativas e impuestos+88,6 M US$Beneficio neto26,3 M US$
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
1.336.365.000 US$
Coste de ventas
862.338.000 US$
Beneficio bruto
474.027.000 US$
Gastos operativos
536.326.000 US$
Beneficio operativo
-62.299.000 US$
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
88.617.000 US$
Beneficio neto
26.318.000 US$
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales2856,3 M US$Efectivo464,4 M US$Activos corrientes2119 M US$Pasivos totales1580,4 M US$Pasivos corrientes1384,5 M US$Patrimonio neto1275,9 M US$
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
2.856.276.000 US$
Efectivo
464.435.000 US$
Activos corrientes
2.119.022.000 US$
Pasivos totales
1.580.419.000 US$
Pasivos corrientes
1.384.506.000 US$
Patrimonio neto
1.275.857.000 US$
Puente de flujo de cajaCómo el flujo de caja operativo se convirtió en flujo de caja libre en FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Conciliación del flujo operativo
Beneficio neto133 M US$Depreciación y amortización+81,6 M US$Compensación basada en acciones+59,4 M US$Otros ajustes operativos+45,9 M US$Flujo de caja operativo320 M US$
Conciliación del efectivo inicial al final
Efectivo inicial537,6 M US$Flujo de caja operativo+320 M US$Flujo de inversión−85,7 M US$Flujo de financiación−330,3 M US$Efecto del tipo de cambio+22,9 M US$Efectivo final464,4 M US$
320 M US$ − 53,2 M US$Flujo de caja libre 266,8 M US$
Datos del puente de flujo de caja
Beneficio neto
132.990.000 US$
Entrada operativa
319.965.000 US$
Depreciación y amortización
81.626.000 US$
Compensación basada en acciones
59.416.000 US$
Otros ajustes operativos
45.933.000 US$
Flujo de caja operativo
319.965.000 US$
Efectivo disponible
880.452.000 US$
Efectivo inicial
537.583.000 US$
Efecto del tipo de cambio
22.904.000 US$
Salida de inversión
85.704.000 US$
Capex
53.155.000 US$
Otras actividades de inversión
32.549.000 US$
Salida de financiación
330.313.000 US$
Recompras de acciones
92.093.000 US$
Dividendos pagados
238.220.000 US$
Efectivo final
464.435.000 US$
Flujo de inversión
-85.704.000 US$
Flujo de financiación
-330.313.000 US$
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
5378,5 M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción
Contract Talent Solutions2990,1 M US$55,6 %−11 % interanual
Protiviti1948,9 M US$36,2 %−0,1 % interanual
Permanent Placement Talent Solutions439,5 M US$8,2 %−9,8 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-13 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
Contract Talent Solutions
2990,1 M US$
55,6 %
-11 %
Protiviti
1948,9 M US$
36,2 %
-0,1 %
Permanent Placement Talent Solutions
439,5 M US$
8,2 %
-9,8 %
Ingresos por regiónProporción de los ingresos totales de 2025-12-31.
5378,5 M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por regiónProporción
United States4171,3 M US$77,6 %−7,7 % interanual
Non Us1207,2 M US$22,4 %−5,4 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-02-13 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por región
Ingresos por región
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
United States
4171,3 M US$
77,6 %
-7,7 %
Non Us
1207,2 M US$
22,4 %
-5,4 %
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-10-17.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
5250,4 M US$
617,5 M US$
343,4 M US$
442,1 M US$
359,1 M US$
83 M US$
64,3 M US$
42,7 M US$
176 M US$
114,2 M US$
—
-112,2 M US$
-288,3 M US$
—
260,2 M US$
260,2 M US$
1 M US$
10,6 %
—
6,8 %
—
2017-12-31
5266,8 M US$
581,2 M US$
290,6 M US$
453 M US$
412,2 M US$
40,8 M US$
65,5 M US$
42,2 M US$
231,7 M US$
121 M US$
—
-78,5 M US$
-352,9 M US$
260,2 M US$
294,8 M US$
294,8 M US$
840 mil US$
9,8 %
—
6,4 %
—
2018-12-31
5800,3 M US$
664,7 M US$
434,3 M US$
572,3 M US$
529,8 M US$
42,5 M US$
65,9 M US$
45 M US$
353,5 M US$
136,4 M US$
—
-88,5 M US$
-490,1 M US$
294,8 M US$
276,6 M US$
276,6 M US$
657 mil US$
10,2 %
—
7,0 %
—
2019-12-31
6074,4 M US$
631,1 M US$
454,4 M US$
519,6 M US$
460,2 M US$
59,5 M US$
65,6 M US$
48,3 M US$
277,5 M US$
145,6 M US$
—
-102,1 M US$
-423,4 M US$
276,6 M US$
270,5 M US$
270,5 M US$
457 mil US$
10,2 %
—
6,7 %
—
2020-12-31
5109 M US$
427,3 M US$
306,3 M US$
596,5 M US$
563,2 M US$
33,4 M US$
63,5 M US$
52,5 M US$
159,2 M US$
155,9 M US$
—
9,5 M US$
-315,3 M US$
270,5 M US$
574,4 M US$
574,4 M US$
526,6 M US$
8,3 %
—
5,5 %
—
2021-12-31
6461,4 M US$
797 M US$
598,6 M US$
603,1 M US$
566,5 M US$
36,6 M US$
54,5 M US$
55,9 M US$
287,7 M US$
170,6 M US$
-239 mil US$
-87,6 M US$
-458,6 M US$
574,4 M US$
619 M US$
619 M US$
446,4 M US$
12,5 %
—
6,0 %
—
2022-12-31
7238,1 M US$
1053,1 M US$
657,9 M US$
683,8 M US$
622,6 M US$
61,1 M US$
49,1 M US$
57,7 M US$
319,9 M US$
189,3 M US$
0 US$
-116,6 M US$
-509,2 M US$
619 M US$
658,6 M US$
658,6 M US$
389,6 M US$
12,3 %
—
8,2 %
—
2023-12-31
6392,5 M US$
467,5 M US$
411,1 M US$
636,9 M US$
591 M US$
45,9 M US$
99 M US$
61,1 M US$
254,6 M US$
205,9 M US$
0 US$
-112,3 M US$
-460,5 M US$
658,6 M US$
731,7 M US$
760,4 M US$
403,3 M US$
7,3 %
—
8,2 %
—
2024-12-31
5795,8 M US$
447 M US$
251,6 M US$
410,5 M US$
354,2 M US$
56,3 M US$
89,3 M US$
63,4 M US$
276 M US$
220,4 M US$
—
-87,1 M US$
-496,4 M US$
731,7 M US$
537,6 M US$
537,6 M US$
402,4 M US$
4,2 %
—
8,7 %
—
2025-12-31
5378,5 M US$
276 M US$
133 M US$
320 M US$
266,8 M US$
53,2 M US$
81,6 M US$
59,4 M US$
92,1 M US$
238,2 M US$
—
-85,7 M US$
-330,3 M US$
537,6 M US$
464,4 M US$
464,4 M US$
421,3 M US$
1,4 %
—
8,1 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
Robert Half Inc.RHI
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable28,25 US$Report-date price33,31 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión51 / 100
A. O. Smith CorporationAOS
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable60,06 US$Report-date price57,83 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión64 / 100
Pool CorporationPOOL
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable166,85 US$Report-date price172,57 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión65 / 100
Robert Half Inc.RHI
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable28,25 US$Report-date price33,31 US$
Robert Half Inc. (RHI) trades at 16.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 14.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 53.4x compares with a peer median of 11.6x. The comparison uses 4 peers: A. O. Smith Corporation, Pool Corporation, Stanley Black & Decker Inc. and C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc., as of 2026-10-17.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Trough
The industrial staffing/services sector benchmark exhibits a capex-to-revenue ratio of 3.4% and capex-to-depreciation of 0.65. Robert Half operates an ultra-asset-light model, with FY2025 capex of $53.16M on $5.38B revenue (0.99% of revenue) and guided FY2026 capex of $50M to $70M. Industry demand remains cyclically depressed following post-pandemic over-hiring.5,7
Ciclo alcista
During a cyclical upswing, enterprise clients face critical skill shortages in specialized finance, accounting, and IT transformation, driving rapid volume expansion, rising bill rates, and surging permanent placement fees that produce peak operating margins.
Ciclo bajista
In a prolonged industry downturn, enterprise clients implement hiring freezes, extend temp contract terminations, and curtail external advisory projects, driving sharp operational deleverage across staffing branch networks and consulting practices.
Tendencias seculares
Tendencia
Impacto
Nota
Shift to Flexible Professional Project-Based Talent
positive
Enterprises increasingly utilize flexible specialized talent for interim accounting, tax, and IT system transformations rather than expanding fixed headcount.
Regulatory Volatility in Banking and AML Compliance
negative
Changes in administrative enforcement stances regarding banking regulation and anti-money laundering lead to periodic pauses in compliance advisory engagements.
Posicionamiento
Robert Half is positioned as a premium provider of specialized talent solutions and business consulting. By pairing Contract Talent Solutions ($2.99B revenue) with Protiviti's risk and technology consulting ($1.95B revenue), Robert Half occupies higher-value specialized niches than generalist staffing peers, supporting gross margin durability through the cycle.8
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
0-1%
Under our Reduce rating, tactical exposure should be minimized. The shares trade at $33.31 against Fair value of $28.25, offering -15.2% upside. Maintaining minimal allocation protects capital while awaiting cyclical entry points.4
Riesgo
Robert Half's zero-net-debt balance sheet ($324.7M cash vs $240.8M debt) and asset-light operations provide strong structural protection against insolvency. However, investors face substantial cyclical valuation risk as the stock's 16.69x forward P/E discounts a seamless earnings rebound that remains vulnerable to European economic weakness and Protiviti consulting deceleration.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
Moderate discount to $28.25
Consider establishing an initial exploratory tracking position if price corrects.
Provides an adequate margin of safety below $28.25 to account for ongoing cyclical staffing uncertainty.
Substantial discount to $28.25
Accumulate core cyclical allocation upon macro stabilization confirmation.
Valuation at 16.69x forward P/E fully discounts an aggressive margin recovery that is contradicted by Protiviti consulting contraction (-6% target guidance), European headwinds, and structural disintermediation threats from AI sourcing platforms.4,5
Base Perspective
Avoid
While contract gross margins have stabilized at 39.1% and $45M in annualized cost savings confirm troughing fundamentals, the stock's $33.31 price trades 17.9% above our $28.25 fair value midpoint, offering an unfavorable risk/reward profile (-15.2% implied return).4,5
Bull Perspective
Hold
Long-term income-oriented investors may choose to hold existing positions for the secure 7.1% dividend yield ($2.36 annual dividend) backed by $324.7M in cash, anticipating high operating leverage once white-collar hiring fully normalizes.
§14 Recomendación finalEN
Acción
Reducir
We issue a Reduce recommendation on Robert Half Inc. While the company is an established specialized talent solutions leader with an asset-light model and modest total debt, the share price of $33.31 exceeds Fair value of $28.25, offering -15.2% upside.2,4
Near-term earnings face friction from Protiviti consulting contraction (guided down 4% to 8% in Q3 2026), German public sector roll-offs, and sluggish white-collar hiring velocity. Investors should trim holdings and reallocate toward opportunities with greater margin of safety.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Extended Staffing Contraction Across North America and Europe
FY2026 consensus revenue projects -1.27% growth to $5.31B, with non-US revenue ($1.21B) dragged by European headwinds. A 500 bps drag across 5 years eliminates volume leverage.1,5,8
FV impact
-1.8%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
The base model assumes a 15.0x terminal P/E. If permanent placement remains constrained and AI sourcing tools erode recruitment spreads, terminal valuation de-rates 20% to 12.0x, below peer medians (AOS 14.60x, SWK 14.68x).3
Failure of operating leverage to materialize despite $45 million in annualized cost savings, indicating fixed SG&A cost absorption is stalled by persistent volume declines.
Actual:1.42% in FY2025; adjusted 2.9% in Q2 2026
Alerta siFull-year FY2026 operating margin failing to reach 2.50%
Macro stagnation, high energy costs, and inflation across Germany and Belgium persisting and spreading to other European markets, preventing replacement of wound-down public sector contracts.
Actual:-1.0% reported in Q2 2026 on $1.21B FY2025 non-US base
Enterprise clients freezing permanent direct-hire recruitment decisions, indicating corporate risk aversion has returned and terminating the green shoots of hiring recovery.
Actual:+2.9% reported (+2.5% adjusted) in Q2 2026 on $439.5M FY2025 revenue
Alerta siReversal back into negative growth below 0.0% YoY
Moderate
Aggressive price discounting by Big Four accounting firms and large consulting competitors during periods of advisory bench overcapacity.
medium
1-2 years
Protiviti dynamically adjusts contractor-to-employee delivery mix to protect gross margins while expanding non-financial services and technology consulting practice groups.5
Protiviti revenue rebounds to low double-digit growth as technology consulting and banking advisory expand
In the bull scenario, enterprise clients unfreeze deferred finance, accounting, and IT transformation projects. Talent Solutions volume expands rapidly, while Protiviti delivers record revenues in technology consulting and non-financial services practices. Operating leverage on the rationalized cost structure drives EBIT margins toward historical high-single-digit levels over the forecast horizon.5
Management maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on liquidity preservation and shareholder distributions. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $324.71M as of June 30, 2026, against total debt of $240.81M (debt weight 6.6%). The company returns capital primarily through its $2.36 annual dividend per share. Open market share repurchases were halted in the first half of 2026 ($0 spent) compared to 1.128M shares repurchased in H1 2025, reflecting prudent cash management at the cyclical trough.
Fixed recruiter overhead and branch infrastructure create significant operational leverage, causing profits to drop sharply during hiring freezes and surge rapidly upon recovery.
Resilient Bill-Pay Spread Discipline
Q2 2026 contract talent gross margin remained identical to Q2 2025 at 39.1%, with management guiding 38% to 40% for Q3 2026.
The company possesses genuine pricing power in specialized accounting staffing, successfully adjusting bill rates in tandem with wage inflation.
Cost Rationalization Lowers Operating Breakeven
Management executed cost reductions in Q2 2026 costing $7M in severance to generate $45M in annualized run-rate savings.
Structural cost reductions lower the enterprise breakeven point and position operating margins to expand toward 2.50% in FY2026 and 4.50% in FY2027 as revenue stabilizes.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.CHRW
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable102,26 US$Report-date price138,97 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión65 / 100
Margen
RHI
Robert Half Inc.
$3.4B
16.7x
0.6x
53.4x
9.1%
—
AOS
A. O. Smith Corporation
$8.0B
14.6x
2.1x
10.9x
27.1%
18.9%
POOL
Pool Corporation
$6.3B
14.7x
1.2x
12.3x
31.3%
15.1%
SWK
Stanley Black & Decker Inc.
$14.0B
14.7x
0.9x
10.4x
6.9%
8.4%
CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.
$16.3B
18.6x
1.0x
19.4x
37.1%
5.3%
AI and Automation in Accounting and Clerical Functions
