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SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $104, high $217, with mid-point at $155.
Stock analysis

SNOW Snowflake Inc. fair value $155–$217

SNOW
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizado: 2026-05-10Próxima actualización: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNYSE · Information Technology
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Precio
$152.45
▲ +2.15 (+1.41%)
Valor razonable
$155
$155–$217
Calificación
Mantener
confidence 76/100
Potencial alcista
+1.4%
upside to fair value
Margen de seguridad
$131.41
buy below · 15%
Capitalización bursátil
$52.7B
P/E fwd 62.7
Respaldo en inglésES
Mostrando la fuente en inglés mientras traducimos
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.

§1 Resumen ejecutivo

  • Composite fair value $155 with high case $217.
  • Implied upside of 1.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$155
Margin of safety
+1.4%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.45Price
FV $154.6
High $216.73

SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High data gravity from multi-cloud
    High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing
  • Switching costs associated with foundational
    Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture
  • Bull thesis
    Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).

§2 Caso bajista

A prolonged macro downturn accelerates enterprise cloud optimization. Snowflake's consumption-based model experiences sharp revenue deceleration. Consequently, terminal growthTerminal growthThe perpetual growth rate assumed in the Gordon-growth terminal-value calculation. Capped below long-run nominal GDP (typically 2.5–3.0% for developed-market firms). drops to 2%, and operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. stalls at 15%.

Cómo puede fallar esta tesis

Hyperscaler displacement

· High

AWS, GCP, and Azure bundle native data platforms at zero margin, stalling Snowflake's customer acquisition and forcing massive pricing concessions.

FV impact
$103.71
Trigger
12-24 months

SBC death spiral

· High

Stock-based compensation remains >30% of revenue, heavily diluting shareholders and preventing positive GAAP EPS indefinitely despite revenue scaling.

FV impact
<$100.00
Trigger
24-36 months

AI workload migration failure

· Medium

Customers migrate AI/ML workloads to specialized compute engines, relegating Snowflake to legacy storage and compressing terminal EV/Revenue multiples below 5x.

FV impact
$85.00
Trigger
36+ months
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
MétricaActualUmbral de activación
Net revenue retention falling below 110%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC expense exceeding 35% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential decline in remaining performance obligations (RPO)MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin failing to converge toward 20%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major customer defection to Databricks or hyperscalersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historial financiero

Cuenta de resultados — últimos seis períodos
ConceptoT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Período2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Ingresos$2.07B$2.81B$3.63B$4.68B+31.4%
Beneficio bruto$1.35B$1.91B$2.41B$3.15B+32.6%
Beneficio operativo$-842.3M$-1.09B$-1.46B$-1.44B—
Beneficio neto$-796.7M$-836.1M$-1.29B$-1.33B—
BPA (diluido)$-2.50$-2.55$-3.86$-3.95—
EBITDA$-752.5M$-729.3M$-1.10B$-1.08B—
I+D$788.1M$1.29B$1.78B$1.97B+35.7%
SG&A$1.40B$1.71B$2.08B$2.61B+23.0%

Puntuaciones de calidad

OCF / Beneficio neto
-0.92
>1 indica alta calidad de los beneficios
Umbral de calidad contable
Fail
Umbral ajustado por sector
ROIC
-0.2%
Rentabilidad del capital invertido
Sección 3

Numbers analysis

Asignación de capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

SNOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SNOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $155 (range $104–$217), which implies roughly 1.4% upside to the midpoint.

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