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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
SYY — frequently asked questions
Is Sysco Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, SYY looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 77,5 USD versus our fair value of 86,2 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 109 USD. That implies roughly 11.2% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives SYY a fair value of 86,2 USD and a potential value of 109 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Sysco Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy SYY now?
Our latest published rating for SYY, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy. Sysco Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 77,5 USD versus fair value of 86,2 USD; potential value is 109 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for SYY?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Sysco Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is SYY's rating?
Our latest published rating for SYY, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 86,2 USD, the potential value of 109 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (77,5 USD).
Este informe aún no se ha traducido. Actualice en unos minutos una vez que la cola de traducción se ponga al día.
§1 Resumen ejecutivoEN
Respuesta en 30 segundosBuy
Precio frente a valor
Precio
$77.49
Valor razonable
$86.19
Valor potencial
$108.90
A fecha de
2026-10-02
Por qué puede funcionar
Accelerating warehouse automation and inventory forecasting accuracy represent the primary upside opportunity, unlocking up to $250,000,000 in working capital cash per day of inventory reduction and expanding consolidated operating margins beyond 3.90% toward 4.0%.
Sysco Corporation presents an 11.23% upside opportunity to an intrinsic fair value of $86.19 per share from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. Dominant scale in U.S. Foodservice Operations, strong cash conversion generating $1,938,000,000 in free cash flow, and inventory productivity initiatives support durable equity value creation.4,6
Downside risks center on cyclical softening in food-away-from-home dining traffic, unhedged inbound freight and fuel cost absorption which reduced Q4 FY2026 gross margin by 17 basis points to 18.7%, and debt service exposure across $14,967,000,000 in total debt. Sysco's computed of 7.0896% reflects debt refinancing requirements over the medium term. Furthermore, International Foodservice of 2.89% ($463,000,000 on $16,042,000,000 ) structurally dilutes domestic profitability until procurement scale matches U.S. levels.
Countering these headwinds, Sysco's core earnings engine in U.S. Foodservice Operations demonstrated durable scale in FY2026, delivering $58,803,000,000 in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating profit (5.98% margin). Core volume growth gained 2.6% in Q4 FY2026 across local and national accounts. Operating cash flow generation reached $2,638,000,000 and free cash flow reached $1,938,000,000 on disciplined capital expenditures of $700,000,000.5,6,7,8
Supply chain productivity initiatives showed measurable progress, with supply chain expenses growing slower than revenue and case volume in FY2026. Outbound fill rates and inventory forecasting accuracy unlock up to $250,000,000 of working capital cash per day of inventory reduction. Concurrently, International Foodservice achieved 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit operating income growth, providing diversified cash flow streams across Canada ($6,513,000,000) and the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000).5,8
Valuation synthesis establishes a compositefair value of $86.19 per share, anchored primarily by an enterprise DCF model at $97.82 (35% weight), a forward earnings model at $67.81 (30% weight) based on FY2028 consensus EPS of $5.37 and a 16.0x multiple, discounted earnings at $97.71 (20% weight), owner earnings at $69.06 (10% weight), and multi-stage moat fade at $103.25 (5% weight). At $77.49 as of 2026-10-02, Sysco trades at a 10.09% discount to intrinsic value, supporting a Buy rating.1,2,4
Dominant Scale and Route Density in U.S. Foodservice
Sysco's U.S. Foodservice division generated $58,803,000,000 in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating income in FY2026, achieving a 5.98% margin and 2.6% case volume growth in Q4 FY2026 through local route clustering and cold-chain scale that smaller peers cannot replicate.5,8
High Free Cash Flow Conversion and Dividend Track Record
Supply chain expenses grew slower than case volume and revenue in FY2026, while advanced forecasting initiatives target up to $250,000,000 in working capital cash release per day of inventory reduction, supporting margin expansion toward 3.90%.5
Recomendación de la casa
We rate Sysco Corporation (SYY) a Buy with a fair value of $86.19 per share, representing an 11.23% implied upside from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. The shares trade at a 10.09% discount to intrinsic value, underpinned by Sysco's dominant U.S. broadline scale, strong cash conversion exceeding $1.9 billion in free cash flow, and defensible route density.4,6
Descripción general de la empresa
Sysco Corporation is the global leader in selling, marketing, and distributing food and non-food products to restaurants, healthcare and educational facilities, lodging establishments, and other customers who prepare meals away from home. In FY2026, the company generated $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue across its broadline, customized, and international distribution operations.
The company's primary operating division, U.S. Foodservice Operations, generated $58,803,000,000 in revenue (69.5% of consolidated total) and $3,518,000,000 in operating income. International Foodservice Operations contributed $16,042,000,000 in revenue, anchored by operations in Canada ($6,513,000,000), the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000), France ($1,897,000,000), and Sweden ($1,032,000,000). Sysco also operates SYGMA, a customized distribution network for quick-service restaurant chains generating $8,623,000,000 in revenue.
§2 Caso bajistaEN
A severe cyclical downturn in food-away-from-home dining traffic combined with persistent unhedged inbound fuel and wage inflation represents Sysco's primary operational stress scenario. In this event, revenue growth decelerates below 2.50%, and consolidated operating margin contracts from FY2026's 3.66% to below 3.50%. Annual operating cash flow falls below $2,400,000,000 compared to $2,638,000,000 in FY2026, while free cash flow compresses toward $1.5 billion. Simultaneously, higher refinancing yields on Sysco's $14,967,000,000 total debt burden expand WACC from 7.0896% to 8.09%, depressing discounted cash flows. While Sysco's customer diversification across healthcare, educational, and institutional channels provides demand resilience, equity value under these stressed parameters is conditional upon maintaining cost pass-through discipline.
In the bear case, persistent consumer inflation and restaurant traffic softening curb case volume growth while unhedged inbound fuel and freight costs compress operating margins below 3.50%. Elevated debt service on $14,967,000,000 of total debt restricts free cash flow toward $1.5 billion, and multiple de-rating depresses valuation toward the conditional bear value of $64.74.
Cómo puede fallar esta tesis
Valuation multiple de-rating due to wholesale distributor margin compression and permanent broadline growth slowdown
Sysco trades at a forward P/E of 15.22x against an assumed terminal P/E of 16.0x. A multiple de-rating toward 12.8x (near peer KDP's forward P/E of 11.98x) reduces discounted terminal equity value.3,4
FV impact
-4.7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
U.S. Foodservice revenue falling below 65.0% of consolidated revenue signals market share loss in core broadline distribution, diluting route density advantages.
Actual:69.5%
Alerta si< 65.0%
02
§3 Foso competitivoEN
Narrow
Sysco holds a narrow economic moat grounded in structural cost advantages from route density and procurement scale, reinforced by efficient scale in regional cold-chain distribution. In FY2026, Sysco generated $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue, with its flagship U.S. Foodservice Operations contributing $58,803,000,000 (69.5%) in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating income at a 5.98% margin. This concentration creates local delivery density that regional competitors cannot duplicate, lowering distribution cost per case.
The company's distribution infrastructure functions as an essential intermediary between thousands of food manufacturers and fragmented foodservice operators. While branded packaged goods suppliers such as CCEP achieve operating margins of 13.40% and gross margins of 35.57%, Sysco operates on high-turnover distributor unit economics with a 3.66% operating margin and an 18.5% gross margin. Customers relying on white-glove multi-temperature delivery face meaningful operational switching costs.
Geographic diversification through International Foodservice Operations adds scale across Canada ($6,513,000,000 revenue) and the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000 revenue). Although international operating margins of 2.89% ($463,000,000 operating income on $16,042,000,000 revenue) currently lag domestic levels, 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit operating income growth reflect progressive operational maturation.
Beneficio económico
Sysco generates consistent economic profit across business cycles. ROIC of 15.26% exceeds its computed WACC of 7.0896% and cost of equity of 7.9790%, producing an economic spread over 800 basis points. In FY2026, Sysco generated $2,638,000,000 in operating cash flow and $1,938,000,000 in free cash flow on $700,000,000 of capital expenditure, validating durable cash compounding well above its cost of capital.2,6,7
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Distribution Route Density and Inbound Procurement Scale — Sysco's scale across $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue and $58,803,000,000 in U.S. Foodservice Operations generates unmatched route clustering, lowering delivery cost per case and securing supplier volume rebates.Wide
02Efficient Scale in Regional Cold-Chain Logistics — Replicating Sysco's nationwide network of temperature-controlled distribution centers and dedicated delivery fleets requires prohibitive capital investment in an industry operating at 3.66% operating margins.Wide
Amenazas conocidas al foso
Amenaza
Severidad
Cronograma
Mitigación
Unhedged Inbound Logistics and Fuel Cost Inflation
medium
12-24 months
Management monitors inbound freight and implements contract cost-plus pricing adjustments and supply chain expense productivity.5
Food-Away-From-Home Demand Contraction from Macroeconomic Softening
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($86.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.2B after modeled reinvestment of $304.1M, with terminal value at 83.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Under the base case, Sysco compounds steadily as North America's leading broadline foodservice distributor. Core U.S. Foodservice Operations maintain route density and commercial momentum, growing case volumes at 2.5-3.0% annually. Supply chain expense productivity keeps cost inflation below top-line growth, allowing consolidated operating margin to expand from 3.66% to 3.90% by FY2031. Free cash flow conversion remains above $1.9 billion annually, supporting steady dividend growth, balanced reinvestment, and gradual deleveraging toward the base intrinsic fair value of $86.19.5,6
Inventory forecasting accuracy and warehouse automation unlock $250 million per inventory day in working capital cash.5
§7 Árbol de decisión de resultadosEN
Superado
Upgrade the rating; Consider expanding position sizing toward upper policy limits if local case volume growth accelerates and operating margin expands.
Maintain Buy; Maintain current target position weighting; monitor quarterly working capital release and inventory days.
Disparador: Diluted EPS between $1.05 and $1.10, Revenue between $21,543,600,000 and $21,816,765,000
Results aligning with consensus expectations confirm steady 2.5-3.0% volume growth and cost pass-through without altering the baseline compounding trajectory.
Fallo
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental additions, reassess local restaurant dining traffic indicators, and examine inbound freight cost absorption.
Cash flow conversion is robust. FY2026 operating cash flow was $2,638,000,000, while capital expenditures were $700,000,000, yielding free cash flow of $1,938,000,000 and an FCF conversion rate of 110.3% relative to net income of $1,757,000,000. D&A of $976,000,000 exceeds capex, confirming modest maintenance capital intensity.6,7
Asignación de capital
Management prioritizes debt deleveraging, dividend continuity, and targeted M&A. Sysco holds $1,786,000,000 in cash against $14,967,000,000 in total debt. The company maintains its 57-year track record of dividend increases (Dividend Aristocrat) with an annual dividend run rate of $2.20 per share. Management paused share buybacks to preserve balance sheet strength during pending acquisitions like Restaurant Depot.
Sysco produced $2,638,000,000 in operating cash flow and $1,938,000,000 in in FY2026, with inventory forecasting initiatives targeting $250,000,000 of cash unlock per inventory day.
Ingresos más recientes84,6 mil M US$CAGR de ingresos +4,8 %
Margen operativo3,7 %10 periodos fiscales
Flujo de caja libre más reciente1938 M US$FY2026
Deuda neta13,2 mil M US$FY2026
Desglose de la cuenta de resultadosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.30 jun 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ingresos22,1 mil M US$Coste de ventas−18 mil M US$Beneficio bruto4134 M US$Gastos operativos−3150 M US$Beneficio operativo984 M US$Partidas no operativas e impuestos−432 M US$Beneficio neto552 M US$
Datos del historial financiero
Ingresos
22.124.000.000 US$
Coste de ventas
17.990.000.000 US$
Beneficio bruto
4.134.000.000 US$
Gastos operativos
3.150.000.000 US$
Beneficio operativo
984.000.000 US$
Partidas no operativas e impuestos
-432.000.000 US$
Beneficio neto
552.000.000 US$
Resumen del balanceCómo se mantienen y financian los activos declarados en el período seleccionado.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composición de activosFinanciado por
Activos totales28,4 mil M US$Efectivo1786 M US$Activos corrientes13,4 mil M US$Pasivos totales25,7 mil M US$Pasivos corrientes10,5 mil M US$Patrimonio neto2666 M US$
Datos del desglose del balance
Activos totales
28.397.000.000 US$
Efectivo
1.786.000.000 US$
Activos corrientes
13.437.000.000 US$
Pasivos totales
25.731.000.000 US$
Pasivos corrientes
10.523.000.000 US$
Patrimonio neto
2.666.000.000 US$
Puente de flujo de cajaCómo el flujo de caja operativo se convirtió en flujo de caja libre en FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Conciliación del flujo operativo
Beneficio neto1757 M US$Depreciación y amortización+976 M US$Compensación basada en acciones+118 M US$Otros ajustes operativos−213 M US$Flujo de caja operativo2638 M US$
Conciliación del efectivo inicial al final
Efectivo inicial1348 M US$Flujo de caja operativo+2638 M US$Flujo de inversión−696 M US$Flujo de financiación−1159 M US$Efecto del tipo de cambio−14 M US$Efectivo final2117 M US$
2638 M US$ − 700 M US$Flujo de caja libre 1938 M US$
Datos del puente de flujo de caja
Beneficio neto
1.757.000.000 US$
Entrada operativa
2.851.000.000 US$
Depreciación y amortización
976.000.000 US$
Compensación basada en acciones
118.000.000 US$
Flujo de caja operativo
2.638.000.000 US$
Salida operativa
213.000.000 US$
Efectivo disponible
3.986.000.000 US$
Efectivo inicial
1.348.000.000 US$
Salida de inversión
696.000.000 US$
Capex
700.000.000 US$
Salida de financiación
1.159.000.000 US$
Emisión neta de deuda
81.000.000 US$
Recompras de acciones
200.000.000 US$
Dividendos pagados
1.037.000.000 US$
Otras actividades de financiación
3.000.000 US$
Efecto del tipo de cambio
14.000.000 US$
Efectivo final
2.117.000.000 US$
Flujo de inversión
-696.000.000 US$
Flujo de financiación
-1.159.000.000 US$
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción de los ingresos totales de 2026-06-27.
84,6 mil M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por segmento operativoProporción
U.S.Foodservice Operations58,8 mil M US$69,5 %+3,2 % interanual
International Foodservice Operations16 mil M US$19 %+7,6 % interanual
Sygma8623 M US$10,2 %+2,5 % interanual
All Other Segments1085 M US$1,3 %−0,5 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-08-21 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos por segmento operativo
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
U.S.Foodservice Operations
58,8 mil M US$
69,5 %
3,2 %
International Foodservice Operations
16 mil M US$
19 %
7,6 %
Sygma
8623 M US$
10,2 %
2,5 %
All Other Segments
1085 M US$
1,3 %
-0,5 %
Ingresos por regiónProporción de los ingresos totales de 2026-06-27.
84,6 mil M US$Ingresos totales
Ingresos por regiónProporción
United States68,1 mil M US$80,6 %+3,1 % interanual
Canada6513 M US$7,7 %+6,5 % interanual
United Kingdom4487 M US$5,3 %+9,9 % interanual
Other Geographic Areas2516 M US$3 %+1,1 % interanual
France1897 M US$2,2 %+10,7 % interanual
Sweden1032 M US$1,2 %+14,5 % interanual
Fuente: SEC EDGAR · Presentado 2026-08-21 · SEC EDGAR
Datos de composición de ingresos: Ingresos por región
Ingresos por región
Ingresos
Proporción
interanual
United States
68,1 mil M US$
80,6 %
3,1 %
Canada
6513 M US$
7,7 %
6,5 %
United Kingdom
4487 M US$
5,3 %
9,9 %
Other Geographic Areas
2516 M US$
3 %
1,1 %
France
1897 M US$
2,2 %
10,7 %
Sweden
1032 M US$
1,2 %
14,5 %
Ingresos y beneficiosCómo la escala del negocio se convierte en beneficio declarado.
Efectivo y deudaLiquidez disponible frente al endeudamiento total.
Generación de efectivoFlujo de caja operativo frente al flujo de caja libre.
RentabilidadEvolución de los márgenes bruto, operativo y neto.
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-10-03.
Datos del historial financiero
Período
Ingresos
EBITDA
Beneficio neto
Flujo de caja operativo
Flujo de caja libre
Capex
Depreciación y amortización
Compensación basada en acciones
Recompras de acciones
Dividendos pagados
Emisión neta de deuda
Flujo de inversión
Flujo de financiación
Efectivo inicial
Efectivo final
Efectivo e inversiones
Deuda total
Margen operativo
ROIC
WACC
Diferencial ROIC−WACC
2017-07-01
55,4 mil M US$
2971,1 M US$
1142,5 M US$
2232,6 M US$
1546,2 M US$
686,4 M US$
902 M US$
83,9 M US$
1886,1 M US$
698,6 M US$
—
-3577,7 M US$
-1682,6 M US$
—
869,5 M US$
870,2 M US$
8194,9 M US$
3,7 %
—
4,1 %
—
2018-06-30
58,7 mil M US$
3117,2 M US$
1430,8 M US$
2155,4 M US$
1467,6 M US$
687,8 M US$
765,5 M US$
93,8 M US$
978,9 M US$
722,2 M US$
—
-910,4 M US$
-1410,5 M US$
869,5 M US$
715,8 M US$
552,3 M US$
8327,3 M US$
3,9 %
—
5,0 %
—
2019-06-29
60,1 mil M US$
3130,2 M US$
1674,3 M US$
2411,2 M US$
1718,8 M US$
692,4 M US$
763,9 M US$
104,9 M US$
1022 M US$
775,4 M US$
—
-742,9 M US$
-1837,3 M US$
715,8 M US$
532,2 M US$
525,5 M US$
8122,1 M US$
3,9 %
—
4,2 %
—
2020-06-27
52,9 mil M US$
1615,7 M US$
215,5 M US$
1618,7 M US$
898,3 M US$
720,4 M US$
805,8 M US$
42,2 M US$
844,7 M US$
856,3 M US$
—
-756,3 M US$
4719,8 M US$
532,2 M US$
6095,6 M US$
6060,8 M US$
12,9 mil M US$
1,4 %
—
5,1 %
—
2021-07-03
51,3 mil M US$
2316,7 M US$
524,2 M US$
1903,8 M US$
1433,2 M US$
470,7 M US$
737,9 M US$
95,8 M US$
0 US$
917,6 M US$
—
-428,7 M US$
-4628,2 M US$
6095,6 M US$
3037 M US$
3007,1 M US$
10,6 mil M US$
2,8 %
—
7,3 %
—
2022-07-02
68,6 mil M US$
3252 M US$
1359 M US$
1791 M US$
1158 M US$
633 M US$
773 M US$
122 M US$
500 M US$
959 M US$
-642 M US$
-1878 M US$
-1987 M US$
3037 M US$
931 M US$
867 M US$
11,4 mil M US$
3,4 %
—
7,1 %
—
2023-07-01
76,3 mil M US$
3701 M US$
1770 M US$
2868 M US$
2075 M US$
793 M US$
776 M US$
96 M US$
500 M US$
996 M US$
-581 M US$
-785 M US$
-2056 M US$
931 M US$
966 M US$
745 M US$
11,2 mil M US$
4,0 %
—
7,6 %
—
2024-06-29
78,8 mil M US$
4169 M US$
1955 M US$
2989 M US$
2157 M US$
832 M US$
873 M US$
104 M US$
1232 M US$
1008 M US$
1115 M US$
-1962 M US$
-1038 M US$
966 M US$
945 M US$
1878 M US$
12,9 mil M US$
4,1 %
—
8,1 %
—
2025-06-28
81,4 mil M US$
4136 M US$
1828 M US$
2510 M US$
1604 M US$
906 M US$
945 M US$
93 M US$
1250 M US$
1000 M US$
750 M US$
-717 M US$
-1412 M US$
945 M US$
1348 M US$
1071 M US$
14,5 mil M US$
3,8 %
—
5,6 %
—
2026-06-27
84,6 mil M US$
2993 M US$
1757 M US$
2638 M US$
1938 M US$
700 M US$
976 M US$
118 M US$
200 M US$
1037 M US$
81 M US$
-696 M US$
-1159 M US$
1348 M US$
2117 M US$
1786 M US$
15 mil M US$
3,7 %
—
5,7 %
—
§9 Comparación de valoración con pares
Valor razonableReport-date price
Sysco CorporationSYY
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable86,19 US$Report-date price77,49 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión62 / 100
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.KDP
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable59,09 US$Report-date price30,37 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaNarrow
Cuadro de mando de inversión62 / 100
Mondelez International, Inc.MDLZ
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable70,11 US$Report-date price61,29 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión61 / 100
Sysco CorporationSYY
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable86,19 US$Report-date price77,49 US$
Sysco Corporation (SYY) trades at 15.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.2x compares with a peer median of 16.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., Mondelez International Inc., Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC and Monster Beverage Corporation, as of 2026-10-03.
§10 Industria y cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Expansion
Because industry-level capacity, supply, lead-time, and capital-intensity benchmarks are unavailable in the source data, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Sysco reinvested $700,000,000 in capex in FY2026 against $976,000,000 in depreciation and amortization, maintaining disciplined maintenance capital allocation.7
Ciclo alcista
Acceleration in consumer food-away-from-home spending boosts restaurant foot traffic and broadline case volume growth, enabling Sysco to leverage warehouse and route density to expand operating margins toward 3.90%.
Ciclo bajista
Macroeconomic pressures or persistent inflation reduce discretionary restaurant dining, slowing case volume growth below 2.50% and compressing distributor gross margins as unhedged inbound freight costs rise.
Tendencias seculares
Tendencia
Impacto
Nota
Shift to Prepared Food and Dining Out
positive
Long-term consumer preference for prepared meals and dining out supports steady baseline broadline volume growth across restaurant and hospitality channels.
Logistics and Cold-Chain Consolidation
positive
Stringent cold-chain regulatory requirements, high warehouse automation costs, and driver availability favor scale players like Sysco with unmatched route density over fragmented regional operators.
Posicionamiento
Sysco is the dominant broadline foodservice distributor in North America, with $58,803,000,000 in U.S. Foodservice revenue and $16,042,000,000 in International Foodservice revenue. Its route density, customer breadth across restaurants and institutions, and purchasing scale insulate it from food manufacturer peer models.3,5,8
§11 Gestión de posiciónEN
Tamaño de posición
3-5%
A 3-5% target weighting is appropriate for Sysco as a defensive mature compounder generating $84.55B revenue and $1.94B in free cash flow, with 11.23% upside to fair value of $86.19, balanced against balance sheet leverage of $14.97B debt.4,6,7
Riesgo
Risk management focuses on monitoring food-away-from-home customer demand, fuel cost volatility, and refinancing conditions for Sysco's $14,967,000,000 debt load. The position should be sized between 3-5% of total portfolio assets, with regular adherence to quarterly checkpoints governing operating margin, cash flow conversion, and domestic revenue share.
Tramos de entrada
Nivel
Acción
Por qué
$76.00 - $78.00
Initiate primary core position
Trading at $77.49 as of 2026-10-02 represents a 10.09% discount to intrinsic fair value of $86.19 and trades at an attractive forward P/E of 15.22x.
$71.00 - $74.00
Add to position on cyclical pullbacks
Tramos de salida
Nivel
Acción
$86.00 - $88.00
Trim position by 25-30% as shares converge with base casefair value of $86.19.
$98.00 - $105.00
Substantially trim or exit position as shares approach the upper boundary of intrinsic valuation ($108.90).
Dominant scale in U.S. Foodservice ($58,803,000,000 revenue) and route density sustain a 15.26% ROIC that reliably exceeds the 7.0896% computed WACC.2,8
We recommend a Buy rating on Sysco Corporation (SYY) with an intrinsic fair value of $86.19 per share, representing an 11.23% implied upside from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. Sysco's dominant route density in U.S. Foodservice Operations ($58,803,000,000 FY2026 revenue) and robust $1,938,000,000 free cash flow provide reliable earnings compounding at a 10.09% price discount to intrinsic value.4,6,8
While macroeconomic pressures on restaurant dining foot traffic and debt service on $14,967,000,000 of total debt warrant disciplined monitoring, supply chain productivity improvements and working capital optimization unlocking up to $250,000,000 per inventory day offer tangible support for operating margin expansion toward 3.90%.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Sustained higher interest rate environment and debt refinancing yield spike
Sysco carries $14,967,000,000 in total debt with computed WACC of 7.0896%. A 100 bps expansion in WACC to 8.09% driven by refinancing yields on debt maturities impairs discounted equity value.2,4
FV impact
-15.7%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 24 months
operating_cash_flow
Trailing operating cash flow dropping below $2,400,000,000 indicates supply chain cost inflation and working capital inventory buildup, impairing FCFF conversion.
Actual:$2,638,000,000
Alerta si< $2,400,000,000
03
international_operating_margin
International operating margin falling below 2.50% confirms structural profitability drag from non-U.S. broadline operations, requiring downward revisions to consolidated EBIT margins.
Actual:2.89%
Alerta si< 2.50%
04
gross_margin
Gross margin falling below 17.5% signals loss of contract cost-plus markup discipline against upstream food suppliers and unhedged fuel inflation.
Actual:18.5%
Alerta si< 17.5%
05
operating_margin
Consolidated operating margin dropping below 3.50% demonstrates that route density efficiencies are failing to offset warehouse labor and transportation inflation, threatening baseline operating profit.
Actual:3.66%
Alerta si< 3.50%
03
Switching Costs and Mission-Critical Operational Integration — Independent and chain restaurants depend on Sysco's broadline SKU breadth and delivery reliability, making vendor substitution disruptive to kitchen operations.
Moderate
high
12-18 months
Customer diversification across healthcare, educational institutions, and government facilities cushions cyclical restaurant dining contraction.7,8
International Segment Profitability Lag and Integration Friction
low
24-36 months
Procurement harmonization and route density expansion across Canada and Europe narrow the margin gap with domestic operations.5,8
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (21,26 US$) plus discounted terminal value (104 US$) minus signed per current share (27,49 US$) equals the 97,82 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the bull case, accelerated adoption of inventory forecasting and warehouse automation releases substantial working capital cash, while international foodservice margins converge toward domestic levels. Operating margins surpass 4.00% and EPS compounding accelerates toward 8.5% annually, enabling rapid balance sheet deleveraging, resumption of share repurchases, and multiple expansion toward the upper valuation boundary of $108.90.5
Por qué importa
Decoupling supply chain expenses from revenue and case volume growth is critical to expanding operating margins toward 3.90%.5
Provides internal liquidity to fund debt service, support dividend growth, and maintain a reinvestment rate of 12% to 15% of NOPAT without dilutive financing.
U.S. Foodservice Operations achieved a 5.98% operating margin ($3,518,000,000 operating income on $58,803,000,000 revenue), while consolidated operating margin was 3.66% on $84,553,000,000 revenue.
The domestic business remains the engine of earnings, absorbing cost pressures from fuel and labor while supporting international expansion.
International Profitability Lag Caps Consolidated Margin Expansion
International Foodservice revenue reached $16,042,000,000, but operating profit of $463,000,000 yielded a 2.89% margin, substantially below domestic profitability.
Until European procurement scale matures, international growth offers top-line diversification but dilutes consolidated margins, capping near-term EBIT margin expansion at 3.70% to 3.90%.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCCCEP
Precio / valor razonable
Valor razonable115,74 US$Report-date price91,86 US$
Fecha de evaluación
Ventaja competitivaWide
Cuadro de mando de inversión64 / 100
Monster Beverage CorporationMNST
Precio / valor razonable
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