TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $938, high $1542, with mid-point at $1239.
Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$1,239
Margin of safety
+3.8%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$1,191.19Price
Low $938.35
Mid $1,238.78
High $1,542.2
TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered
Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered sole-source components.
Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream
Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream.
Cycle upside
High airline fleet utilization drives relentless aftermarket parts demand, cementing pricing power.
Free cash flow for TDG (TDG) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.
Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.
The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.
FAQ
TDG — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, TDG trades close to fair value. The current price is $1191 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1239 (range $938–$1542), which implies roughly 4.0% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for TDG is $938–$1542, with a midpoint of $1239. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for TDG's archetype.
Our current rating for TDG is Hold with a confidence score of 86/100. TDG is rated Hold at $1,191.19 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $1,238.78, implying +4.00% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 86/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for TDG are: Regulatory Pricing Crackdown; Aviation Downcycle Meets Debt; M&A Pipeline Exhaustion. The single biggest risk is Regulatory Pricing Crackdown: DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.
Our current rating for TDG is Hold, issued with a confidence score of 86/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($938–$1542) versus the current price of $1191.
TDG is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TDG.
