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Bull: Successful integration of AI (Rovo) and cross-selling into ITSM accelerates enterprise revenue growth toward 20%+.
Macro Seat Deceleration: Prolonged tech hiring freezes permanently stall organic seat expansion, breaking the core growth assumption.
Atlassian maintains an immense moat in developer and project management tooling (Jira, Confluence). However, extreme reliance on Stock-Based Compensation obscures true profitability, masking negative GAAP margins beneath robust free cash flow. Continued cloud migration and enterprise upmarket penetration drive top-line resilience, but eventual multiple expansion will strictly require GAAP margin improvement and SBC rationalization.
Atlassian maintains an immense moat in developer and project management tooling (Jira, Confluence). However, extreme reliance on obscures true profitability, masking negative GAAP margins beneath robust . Continued cloud migration and enterprise upmarket penetration drive top-line resilience, but eventual will strictly require GAAP margin improvement and rationalization.
High switching costs in core Jira/Confluence deployments
Network effects in collaborative Jira Service Management
Enterprise cloud migration phase concludes, shifting momentum to high-margin recurring renewals and AI upsells.
A structurally dominant, high-margin SaaS franchise masked by aggressive temporary dilution. Strong Buy for long-term margin normalization.
Atlassian Corporation provides a collaboration software that enables organizations to connect all teams through a system of work that unlocks productivity at scale worldwide. Its product portfolio includes Jira, a project management platform for planning, tracking, and managing work; Confluence, a connected workspace to create, organize, and share team knowledge, documents, and collaboration content; Loom, an asynchronous video communication tool to record and share videos; Jira Service Management, an intuitive service management solution for IT, HR, and other teams; and Rovo, an AI offering that assists teams with its Search, Chat and Agent capabilities. The company also offers Bitbucket, a git-based source code management platform for professional development teams; Compass, a developer portal that provides a unified view of engineering components; Jira Product Discovery, a tool to capture, prioritize, and roadmap product ideas; Jira Align, an enterprise agility solution that connects business and technology teams to align strategy with execution; Focus, a strategy hub for leadership teams; and Talent, a workforce planning app. In addition, it provides Trello, an AI-powered personal productivity tool; and Guard, an app for detecting and responding to security threats. The company has a strategic collaboration with Mattermost, Inc. for the development of Mattermost Docs, a sovereign, self-hosted successor to Confluence for defense, intelligence, and critical infrastructure organizations. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
A severe macroeconomic contraction in software developer hiring halts seat expansion entirely. Combined with investor refusal to back out ~26% SBC, multiple compression drives valuation toward PEG-adjusted peer lows.
Macroeconomic headwinds halt developer seat expansion. Investors severely penalize the ~26% SBC-to-revenue ratio, resulting in lasting multiple compression and lower terminal value.
Los cinco acontecimientos que debilitarían nuestra tesis de inversión.
Excessive cash divergence from net income highlights uncontained stock-based compensation and negative operating profitability, eroding intrinsic per-share value through relentless shareholder dilution.
Actual:-5.689 as of the report's 2026-05-09 analysis date
High switching costs in core Jira/Confluence deployments
Network effects in collaborative Jira Service Management
Entrenched developer ecosystem and integrations
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Unavailable
FCF cliff sensitivity is not model-supported in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
Successful integration of AI (Rovo) and cross-selling into ITSM accelerates enterprise revenue growth toward 20%+. R&D economies of scale drive massive GAAP margin expansion.
If SBC % of revenue drops -> validates margin expansion thesis. If cloud growth >20% -> validates enterprise upsell traction. If both fail -> re-rate toward $142 internal valuation cross-checks.
If SBC % of revenue drops -> validates margin expansion thesis. If cloud growth >20% -> validates enterprise upsell traction. If both fail -> re-rate toward $142 internal valuation cross-checks.
If SBC % of revenue drops -> validates margin expansion thesis. If cloud growth >20% -> validates enterprise upsell traction. If both fail -> re-rate toward $142 internal valuation cross-checks.
If SBC % of revenue drops -> validates margin expansion thesis. If cloud growth >20% -> validates enterprise upsell traction. If both fail -> re-rate toward $142 internal valuation cross-checks.
Warning level: < -8.00 over two consecutive quarters. Excessive cash divergence from net income highlights uncontained stock-based compensation and negative operating profitability, eroding intrinsic per-share value through relentless shareholder dilution.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Ingresos | 5.215.304.000 |
|---|---|
| Coste de ventas | 894.851.000 |
| Beneficio bruto | 4.320.453.000 |
| Gastos operativos | 4.450.845.000 |
| Beneficio operativo | -130.392.000 |
| Partidas no operativas e impuestos | -126.295.000 |
| Beneficio neto | -256.687.000 |
| Activos totales | 6.041.970.000 |
|---|---|
| Efectivo | 2.512.874.000 |
| Activos corrientes | 3.891.237.000 |
| Pasivos totales | 4.696.316.000 |
| Pasivos corrientes | 3.180.859.000 |
| Patrimonio neto | 1.345.654.000 |
Datos financieros puntuales utilizados en el análisis del 2026-05-09.
| Período | Ingresos | EBITDA | Beneficio neto | Flujo de caja operativo | Flujo de caja libre | Capex | Depreciación y amortización | Compensación basada en acciones | Recompras de acciones | Dividendos pagados | Emisión neta de deuda | Flujo de inversión | Flujo de financiación | Efectivo inicial | Efectivo final | Efectivo e inversiones | Deuda total | Margen operativo | ROIC | WACC | Diferencial ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-30 | 2802,9 M | -377,7 M | -519,5 M | 821 M | 746,4 M | 74,6 M | 51,7 M | 524,8 M | 0 | 0 | -548,7 M | — | — | — | — | 1385,3 M | 1314,5 M | 2,5 % | — | 8,2 % | — |
| 2023-06-30 | 3534,6 M | -220,1 M | -486,8 M | 868,1 M | 842,3 M | 25,8 M | 60,9 M | 948,1 M | 150 M | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 2102,6 M | 1282,4 M | -9,8 % | — | 9,1 % | — |
| 2024-06-30 | 4358,6 M | 27,4 M | -300,5 M | 1448,2 M | 1415 M | 33,1 M | 78,7 M | 1081,4 M | 395,3 M | — | -13 M | — | — | — | — | 2176,9 M | 1249,3 M | -2,7 % | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-30 | 5215,3 M | 24 M | -256,7 M | 1460,4 M | 1415,5 M | 44,9 M | 92,4 M | 1362,2 M | 779,4 M | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | 2512,9 M | 1239,3 M | -2,5 % | — | — | — |
TEAM trades at 14.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.0x; EV/EBITDA of -451.1x against a peer median of 18.6x; 6 peers.
Heavy reinvestment and hyper-growth hiring stabilizing; critical pivot toward FCF conversion and SBC rationalization required.
Enterprise cloud migration phase concludes, shifting momentum to high-margin recurring renewals and AI upsells.
Software sector budget tightening and hiring freezes mechanically cap user seat growth across platforms.
Heavy reinvestment and hyper-growth hiring stabilizing; critical pivot toward FCF conversion and SBC rationalization required.
The massive benchmark divergence requires elevated risk tolerance regarding GAAP realization.
Exit mechanically if cloud revenue growth permanently falls below 15% or management abandons the 22% GAAP profitability target.
Strong Buy based on 207% fundamental upside to the $281.50 fair value, explicitly contingent on disciplined SBC rationalization.
The market universally penalizes TEAM's near-term unprofitability and massive SBC, implying a negative terminal growth rate. Our primary EV/Revenue model looks past current dilution to capture the intrinsic value of 84% gross margins operating at scale.
Strong Buy based on 207% fundamental upside to the $281.50 fair value, explicitly contingent on disciplined SBC rationalization.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Stock-based compensation remains above 25% of revenue, permanently depressing GAAP operating margins.
AI-driven developer efficiency reduces total enterprise engineering headcount needs, shrinking TEAM's TAM.
Alerta si< -8.00 over two consecutive quarters
Decelerating total revenue expansion signals that cloud migrations are reaching completion without triggering significant enterprise upsell, removing the primary catalyst for multi-year top-line outperformance.
Actual:19.7% for the period ended 2025-06-30
Alerta si< 15.0% over two consecutive quarters
Deepening negative returns on capital show customer dissatisfaction following cloud transitions and software seat reductions, signaling competitive vulnerability to modern developer collaboration suites.
Actual:-2.1% as of the report's 2026-05-09 analysis date
Alerta si< -5.0% over four consecutive quarters
Inability to generate positive GAAP operating profits demonstrates that high administrative overhead and software research expenses remain uncontained, breaking the long-term margin inflection path.
Actual:-2.5% for the period ended 2025-06-30
Alerta si< -5.0% over two consecutive quarters
Shrinking gross profitability reflects higher infrastructure hosting costs and customer migration expenses, permanently reducing unit profitability and lowering long-term operating cash generation capacity.
Actual:82.8% for the period ended 2025-06-30
Alerta si< 80.0% over two consecutive quarters
| Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
| Pricing pushback during enterprise cloud migrations | medium | Monitor | Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Continued cloud migration and steady enterprise penetration. The company eventually achieves target 22% GAAP margins as hyper-growth hiring concludes, commanding an 8x multiple.
Warning level: < 15.0% over two consecutive quarters. Decelerating total revenue expansion signals that cloud migrations are reaching completion without triggering significant enterprise upsell, removing the primary catalyst for multi-year top-line outperformance.
Warning level: < -5.0% over four consecutive quarters. Deepening negative returns on capital show customer dissatisfaction following cloud transitions and software seat reductions, signaling competitive vulnerability to modern developer collaboration suites.
Warning level: < -5.0% over two consecutive quarters. Inability to generate positive GAAP operating profits demonstrates that high administrative overhead and software research expenses remain uncontained, breaking the long-term margin inflection path.
Warning level: < 80.0% over two consecutive quarters. Shrinking gross profitability reflects higher infrastructure hosting costs and customer migration expenses, permanently reducing unit profitability and lowering long-term operating cash generation capacity.
| Margen |
|---|
| TEAM | Atlassian Corporation | $23.2B | 14.7x | 3.8x | -451.1x | — | — |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc. | 17.4x | 2.9x | 22.9x | 35.3% | 14.6% | |
| CRM | Salesforce Inc. | 12.2x | 3.6x | 14.0x | 12.4% | 19.2% | |
| SHOP | Shopify Inc. | 47.5x | 11.6x | 64.1x | 11.3% | 15.7% | |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 15.0x | 5.5x | 18.6x | 23.5% | 18.4% | |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | 9.6x | 4.2x | 10.7x | 58.8% | 38.8% |
