TXN trades against a final fair-value range of $99.78-$206.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $99.8, high $207, with mid-point at $153.
Stock analysis
Texas Instruments IncorporatedTXN Texas Instruments Incorporated fair value $153–$207
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§1 Resumen ejecutivo
Composite fair value $153 with high case $207.
Implied downside of 46.9% to fair value.
Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature dividend.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$153
Margin of safety
-88.4%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$287.80Price
FV $152.73
High $206.88
TXN trades against a final fair-value range of $99.78-$206.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Massive catalog of analog/embedded chips with long product lifecycles
Bull thesis
Quantitative: Extreme overvaluation; the stock trades at a massive 45% premium to deterministic fair value.
§2 Caso bajista
A prolonged cyclical downturn in industrial and auto markets coincides with peak 300mm fab capital intensity, cratering free cash flow and forcing a highly disruptive pause in dividend growth.
Cómo puede fallar esta tesis
Fab execution failure
· Medium
300mm US fab buildout faces severe delays or structural cost overruns, permanently eroding projected unit cost advantages.
FV impact
High
Structural demand destruction
· Low
Long-term secular decline or massive inventory digestion in key industrial and automotive end markets nullifies the need for expanded capacity.
FV impact
Severe
Aggressive analog pricing war
· Low
Competitors aggressively cut chip prices to gain share, compressing TXN's historical gross margin profile and destroying expected returns on invested capital.
FV impact
Medium
Señales de alerta temprana a vigilar
Métrica
Actual
Umbral de activación
Gross margin structurally breaking and remaining below the 60% threshold.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-revenue ratio remaining stubbornly above 15% well past the 2026 transition window.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Inventory days outstanding climbing aggressively above 200 days without clear seasonal justification.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio mathematically exceeding 100% of structurally normalized owner earnings.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Core analog revenue growth decelerating below 5% during a confirmed macroeconomic expansionary phase.
Based on our latest analysis, TXN looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $288 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $153 (range $99.8–$207), which implies roughly 46.9% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for TXN is $99.8–$207, with a midpoint of $153. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Texas Instruments Incorporated's archetype.
Our current rating for TXN is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. TXN is rated Sell at $287.80 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $152.73, implying -46.93% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Texas Instruments Incorporated are: Fab execution failure; Structural demand destruction; Aggressive analog pricing war. The single biggest risk is Contrarian: While it is a high-quality mature dividend payer, the current price demands an impossible structural growth rate.
Our current rating for TXN is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($99.8–$207) versus the current price of $288.
Texas Instruments Incorporated is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TXN.
