Bear case

The bear case is the worst-realistic outcome we model — not a doomsday scenario, but the realistic adverse path where our top three risks materialize together. It is the floor of our fair-value range and the lens through which downside-protected position sizing becomes possible. Our bear-case construction is bottom-up: we identify the three or four risks that our central thesis depends on, model out what each one implies for revenue trajectory, margin path, and terminal multiple, and combine them into a single bear-case forecast. The bear case is intentionally pessimistic on assumption inputs but realistic on market structure — it is not a Lehman-style tail event, but a 'this thesis is half wrong' outcome. We probability-weight bull, base, and bear scenarios with explicit weights (typically 25/50/25 for moderate-confidence cases, asymmetrically tilted for high-conviction or weak-conviction cases). Importantly, we report the bear case before the bull case in every published report — risks come in Section 2, before any bullish synthesis — to counteract optimism anchoring.