Historical analog explorer
Glossary version 2026-07-12.v1 · reviewed July 12, 2026
A nearest-neighbor search across multi-decade index history that surfaces prior regimes whose composite, breadth, dispersion, and revision profile most closely matches the current month, with the subsequent 12-month outcomes attached.
Distance(current, historical) = Σ wᵢ × (zᵢ_current − zᵢ_historical)², over the regime sub-componentsThe historical analog explorer grounds the regime read in actual outcomes rather than theory. Each month, the current composite, breadth, dispersion, revisions, and rotation pattern are converted to z-scores and compared with prior month-ends. The five closest matches are shown with their subsequent 12-month return and maximum drawdown. The tool is not a forecast, but the distribution of analog outcomes is informative. Analogs are weighted by inverse distance and the explorer publishes an outcome-spread band around the analog-implied return.